2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri
	Blunt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Kander: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes
U.S. senator before election; Roy Blunt; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Roy Blunt; Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.^[1]^[2] Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state.This is also the closest a Democrat has come to winning this seat since 1980.

Republican primary

Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.^[3]

Candidates

Declared

Roy Blunt, incumbent senator since 2011^[1]^[4]
Ryan Luethy, financial services worker^[5]
Bernie Mowinski, retired army sergeant and perennial candidate^[6]
Kristi Nichols, sales manager, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[6]

Withdrew

Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)^[6]^[7]^[8]

Declined

Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative from 2001 to 2013 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012^[9]^[10]
John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)^[11]
John Lamping, former state senator^[12]

Endorsements

Roy Blunt

Presidents

George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States^[13]

U.S. Senators

John Cornyn, Texas; Senate Majority Whip^[14]
Ted Cruz, Texas; 2016 presidential candidate^[14]

U.S. Representatives

Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House and U.S. Representative (WI-01)^[15]

Individuals

John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations^[16]
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 California nominee for U.S. Senate, and 2016 presidential candidate^[17]

Organizations

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt	Kristi Nichols	Bernie Mowinski	Ryan Luethy	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	66%	9%	5%	1%	19%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt	John Brunner	Other	Undecided
Remington Research Group	January 2015	1,355	± ?	60%	40%	—	—
Remington Research Group	February 2–3, 2015	747	3.6%	50%	19%	—	32%

Results

Republican primary results^[21]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roy Blunt (incumbent)	481,444	72.55%
	Republican	Kristi Nichols	134,025	20.20%
	Republican	Ryan Luethy	29,328	4.42%
	Republican	Bernie Mowinski	18,789	2.83%
Total votes			663,586	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Cori Bush, pastor, nurse and co-director of the Truth Telling Project^[22]^[23]
Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri since 2013^[24]^[25]
Robert Mack, military veteran^[26]
Chief Wana Dubie, marijuana activist^[27]^[28]

Declined

Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri since 2009^[29]
Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County prosecuting attorney and former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party^[30]^[31]
Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri since 2009^[32]^[33]

Endorsements

Jason Kander

Vice presidents

Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States^[34]

Governors

Jay Nixon, Missouri^[35]

U.S. Senators

Al Franken, Minnesota^[36]
Martin Heinrich, New Mexico^[37]
Claire McCaskill, Missouri^[35]
Harry Reid, Nevada and Senate Minority Leader^[38]
Jon Tester, Montana^[39]
Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts^[40]

U.S. Representatives

Emanuel Cleaver II, Missouri^[35]

Statewide Officials

Chris Koster, Missouri Attorney General and candidate for Governor of Missouri^[35]
Clint Zweifel, Missouri State Treasurer^[35]

Organizations

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jason Kander	Cori Bush	Robert Mack	Chief Wana Dubie	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	67%	7%	4%	2%	20%

Results

Democratic primary results^[21]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jason Kander	223,492	69.87%
	Democratic	Cori Bush	42,453	13.27%
	Democratic	Chief Wana Dubie	30,432	9.51%
	Democratic	Robert Mack	23,509	7.35%
Total votes			319,886	100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Jonathan Dine, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012^[6]
Herschel Young^[46]^[47]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[21]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	2,002	54.90%
	Libertarian	Herschel Young	1,642	45.06%
Total votes			3,644	100.00%

Constitution primary

Candidates

Declared

Fred Ryman^[6]

Results

Constitution primary results^[21]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Constitution	Fred Ryman	545	100.00%
Total votes			545	100.00%

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

Johnathan McFarland^[48]^[49]

Write-in

Gina Bufe^[50]
Patrick Lee^[51]^[52]^[53]

General election

Debates

Date	Host	Moderator	Link(s)	Participants
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn
				Roy Blunt	Jonathan Dine	Jason Kander	Jonathan McFarland	Fred Ryman
September 30, 2016	Associated Press	David Lieb	Video	P	P	P	P	P

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[54]	Tossup	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[55]	Lean R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[56]	Tossup	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[57]	Lean R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[58]	Tossup	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt (R)	Jason Kander (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,368	± 4.6%	44%	51%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,119	± 4.6%	43%	51%	—	6%
Emerson College	November 4–5, 2016	750	± 3.5%	45%	46%	5%	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	879	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Clarity Campaign Labs	November 1–2, 2016	1,036	± 3.1%	47%	45%	—	8%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	774	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,083	± 3.0%	46%	44%	—	9%
Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,722	± 2.4%	48%	44%	3%^[59]	5%
DFM Research	October 27 – November 1, 2016	508	± 4.4%	41%	41%	9%	9%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	649	± 4.6%	46%	50%	—	4%
Emerson College	October 28–31, 2016	650	± 3.8%	45%	45%	6%	4%
Monmouth University	October 28–31, 2016	405	± 4.9%	47%	46%	3%	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	671	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)	October 27–28, 2016	1,698	± 2.4%	47%	44%	4%^[60]	5%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	October 24–26, 2016	625	± 4.0%	47%	46%	2%	5%
Emerson College	October 17–19, 2016	600	± 3.9%	44%	44%	4%	8%
Google Consumer Surveys	October 12–14, 2016	521	± 4.2%	45%	52%	—	3%
Monmouth University	October 9–11, 2016	406	± 4.9%	46%	44%	3%^[61]	7%
Emerson College	September 9–13, 2016	600	± 3.6%	40%	42%	10%	8%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)	September 1–2, 2016	1,275	± 3.0%	47%	40%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	August 26–27, 2016	1,055	± 3.0%	47%	43%	—	10%
Monmouth University	August 19–22, 2016	401	± 4.9%	48%	43%	3%^[62]	7%
Remington Research Group (R)	August 5–6, 2016	1,280	± 3.0%	47%	40%	6%^[63]	7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	47%	43%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	July 11–12, 2016	959	± 3.2%	41%	38%	—	21%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)	March 25–26, 2016	927	± 3.2%	44%	37%	—	19%
DFM Research	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	49%	35%	2%	14%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) Archived March 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine	October 30–31, 2015	783	± 3.5%	43%	33%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	40%	35%	—	25%
Remington Research Group (R)	February 19, 2015	957	± 3.2%	49%	36%	—	14%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri^[64]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roy Blunt (incumbent)	1,378,458	49.18%	−5.05%
	Democratic	Jason Kander	1,300,200	46.39%	+5.76%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	67,738	2.42%	−0.60%
	Green	Johnathan McFarland	30,743	1.10%	N/A
	Constitution	Fred Ryman	25,407	0.91%	−1.22%
	Write-in		95	0.03%	N/A
Total votes			2,802,641	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Boone (Largest city: Columbia)
Clay (Largest city: Kansas City^[a])
Platte (Largest city: Kansas City^[a])

Notes

References

External links

Official campaign websites

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[a]

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Third party and independent candidates

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Constitution primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

Write-in

General election

Debates

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

References

External links