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2020 United States presidential election in Florida

(Redirected from United States presidential election in Florida, 2020)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Florida
← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout77.17% (of registered voters)[1] Increase 2.69 pp
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote290
Popular vote5,668,7315,297,045
Percentage51.22%47.86%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.[a]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen.[5][6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in 2016.[7] Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won the Sunshine State by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012.[8] Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos.[9][10] In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. This was the first election since 1992 that Florida backed the losing Republican incumbent as well as the loser of the election overall. Despite this, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.

Primary election

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

2020 Florida Republican presidential primary[11][12]
CandidateVotes%Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)1,162,98493.79122
Bill Weld39,3193.17
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)25,4642.05
Rocky De La Fuente12,1720.98
Total1,239,939100%122

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard.[13][14][15]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[16]

Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Biden—80–90%
2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary[17]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[18]
Joe Biden1,077,37561.95162
Bernie Sanders397,31122.8457
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[b]146,5448.43
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)39,8862.29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[b]32,8751.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)17,2760.99
Tulsi Gabbard8,7120.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)5,2860.30
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)4,2440.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)2,5100.14
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)1,7440.10
John Delaney (withdrawn)1,5830.09
Cory Booker (withdrawn)1,5070.09
Julián Castro (withdrawn)1,0360.06
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)6640.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)6610.04
Total1,739,214100%219

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[19]Tossup
Inside Elections[20]Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21]Lean R
Politico[22]Tossup
RCP[23]Tossup
Niskanen[24]Tossup
CNN[25]Tossup
The Economist[26]Lean D (flip)
CBS News[27]Tossup
270towin[28]Tossup
ABC News[29]Tossup
NPR[30]Tossup
NBC News[31]Lean D (flip)
538[32]Lean D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other/
Undecided[c]		Margin
270 to WinOctober 24 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202048.7%46.0%5.3%Biden +2.7
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 28 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.9%47.0%5.1%Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.1%46.6%4.3%Biden +2.5
Average48.6%46.5%4.9%Biden +2.1

State polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		Howie
Hawkins
Green		OtherUndecided
Insider Advantage/Fox 35Nov 1–2, 2020[e]400 (LV)± 4.4%48%47%2%-–3%
Trafalgar GroupOct 31 – Nov 2, 20201,054 (LV)± 2.94%49%47%2%-1%[f]1%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20208,792 (LV)± 1.5%49%[g]49%--––
AYTM/AspirationOct 30 – Nov 1, 2020517 (LV)–43%45%--––
Change Research/CNBCOct 29 – Nov 1, 2020806 (LV)± 3.45%48%51%0%0%–1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A]Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%47%46%2%-2%[h]3%
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 28 – Nov 1, 20201,657 (LV)± 2.4%42%47%--1%[f]9%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback MachineOct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,261 (LV)± 3.7%46%53%1%1%––
Data for ProgressOct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,202 (LV)± 2.8%48%51%1%1%0%[i]–
Ipsos/ReutersOct 27 – Nov 1, 2020670 (LV)± 4.3%46%[j]50%1%0%1%[k]–
46%[l]50%--2%[m]2%
47%[n]51%--2%[o]–
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[B]Oct 30–31, 2020768 (LV)± 3.5%49%51%--––
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen ReportsOct 29–31, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%--3%[p]–
Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 27–31, 20201,451 (LV)± 3.2%44%47%2%1%0%[q]6%[r]
Morning ConsultOct 22–31, 20204,451 (LV)± 2%45%52%--––
St. Pete PollsOct 29–30, 20202,758 (LV)± 1.9%48%49%1%-–2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQOct 28–30, 20201,200 (LV)± 2.8%47%[j]51%--2%[o]0%
45%[s]52%--2%[o]0%
48%[t]49%--2%[o]0%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmartOct 25–30, 20201,027 (LV)–47%51%--2%[u]–
AtlasIntelOct 28–29, 2020786 (LV)± 3%48.5%48.5%--–3%
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020[C]Oct 28–29, 2020941 (V)–45%52%--–3%
Harvard-Harris/The HillOct 26–29, 20201,148 (LV)± >=3%47%50%--–3%
ABC/Washington PostOct 24–29, 2020824 (LV)± 4%50%48%1%0%0%[v]0%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOct 27–28, 20201,587 (LV)–46%50%1%0%0%3%
Trafalgar GroupOct 25–28, 20201,088 (LV)± 2.89%50%47%2%-1%[f]1%
Monmouth UniversityOct 24–28, 2020509 (RV)± 4.7%45%50%1%0%1%[w]2%
509 (LV)45%[x]51%--––
46%[y]50%--––
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 202014,571 (LV)–50%48%--––
Marist College/NBCOct 25–27, 2020743 (LV)± 4.4%47%51%--1%1%
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 23–27, 20201,324 (LV)± 2.7%42%45%--1%[f]11%
Ipsos/ReutersOct 21–27, 2020704 (LV)± 4.2%47%[j]48%1%1%2%[z]–
47%[l]49%--3%[aa]2%
SwayableOct 23–26, 2020605 (LV)± 5.4%51%46%2%1%––
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State UniversityOct 16–26, 20201,200 (LV)± 3.2%46%48%--–6%
Wick SurveysOct 24–25, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%50%47%--––
Florida Atlantic UniversityOct 24–25, 2020937 (LV)± 3.1%48%50%--2%[ab]–
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A]Oct 23–25, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%49%44%2%-3%[ac]3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research		Oct 17–25, 2020743 (RV)± 3.56%46%49%--2%[ab]3%
Ryan Tyson (R)Released Oct 24, 2020– (V)[ad]–47%45%--3%[ae]4%
Gravis MarketingOct 24, 2020665 (LV)± 3.8%48%47%--–5%
YouGov/CBSOct 20–23, 20201,228 (LV)± 3.6%48%50%--2%[af]0%
St. Pete Polls/Florida PoliticsOct 21–22, 20202,527 (LV)± 2%47%49%--2%[ag]2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQOct 20–22, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%[j]50%--1%[ah]1%
46%[s]52%--1%[ah]1%
48%[t]46%--1%[ah]1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen ReportsOct 20–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%46%--3%[ai]3%
Ipsos/ReutersOct 14–21, 2020662 (LV)± 4.3%46%[j]51%1%0%2%[z]–
46%[l]50%--1%[aj]3%
Citizen DataOct 17–20, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%45%50%1%0%1%4%
Civiqs/Daily KosOct 17–20, 2020863 (LV)± 3.5%47%51%--1%[f]1%
CNN/SSRSOct 15–20, 2020847 (LV)± 4%46%50%1%1%0%[ak]1%
Morning ConsultOct 11–20, 20204,685 (LV)± 1.4%45%52%--––
Change Research/CNBCOct 16–19, 2020547 (LV)[e]–45%50%--––
University of North FloridaOct 12–16, 2020863 (LV)± 3.3%47%48%--1%[f]3%
HarrisX/The Hill[1]Oct 12–15, 2020965 (LV)–48%48%--–4%
Ipsos/ReutersOct 7–14, 2020653 (LV)± 4.4%47%[j]50%0%0%2%[al]–
47%[l]49%--1%[aj]3%
Trafalgar GroupOct 11–13, 20201,051 (LV)± 2.94%48%46%2%1%1%[f]2%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOct 10–13, 20201,519 (LV)–44%[e]50%1%0%––
St. Pete Polls/Florida PoliticsOct 11–12, 20202,215 (LV)± 2.1%47%49%--1%[am]2%
Emerson CollegeOct 10–12, 2020690 (LV)± 3.7%48%[an]51%--1%[f]–
Mason-DixonOct 8–12, 2020625 (LV)± 4%45%48%--1%[ao]6%
Clearview ResearchOct 7–12, 2020550 (LV)± 4.18%40%[j]47%--4%[ap]9%
39%[aq]48%--4%[ap]9%
41%[ar]46%--4%[ap]9%
Morning ConsultOct 2–11, 20204,785 (LV)± 1.4%46%51%--––
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOct 9–10, 2020750 (LV)–42%[e]53%1%0%––
Florida Atlantic UniversityOct 9–10, 2020644 (LV)± 3.8%47%51%--2%[ab]–
RMG Research/PoliticalIQOct 4–8, 2020800 (LV)–46%[j]48%1%1%1%4%
44%[s]50%1%1%1%4%
47%[t]46%1%1%1%4%
Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R)Oct 6–7, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%49%46%1%-–10%
YouGov/CCES Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback MachineSep 29 – Oct 7, 20203,755 (LV)–47%49%--––
Ipsos/ReutersSep 29 – Oct 7, 2020678 (LV)± 4.3%45%49%--1%[aj]5%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOct 4–6, 2020998 (LV)± 3.1%44%49%1%0%1%[as]6%
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 1–5, 20201,256 (LV)± 2.8%40%51%--1%[f]7%
Change Research/CNBCOct 2–4, 2020560 (LV)–46%50%--––
Suffolk University/USA Today[2]Oct 1–4, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%45%[j]45%2%0%[at]2%[au]6%
46%[av]45%--2%[aw]7%
University of North FloridaOct 1–4, 20203,134 (LV)± 1.8%45%51%--1%[f]3%[r]
St. Leo UniversitySep 27 – Oct 2, 2020489 (LV)–44%50%--–5%
Siena College/NYT UpshotSep 30 – Oct 1, 2020710 (LV)± 4.2%42%47%2%1%0%[q]8%[r]
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 202012,962 (LV)–47%51%--–2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of CommerceSep 23–29, 2020600 (LV)± 4%44%[e]49%--––
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A]Sep 23–26, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%43%46%3%-–8%[r]
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSep 23–25, 20201,073 (LV)± 2.99%43%48%1%1%1%[as]7%
St. Pete PollsSep 21–22, 20202,906 (LV)± 1.8%47%50%--2%[ag]2%
Data For Progress[D]Sep 15–22, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%43%46%--–11%
Change Research/CNBCSep 18–20, 2020702 (LV)–46%49%--––
ABC/Washington PostSep 15–20, 2020613 (LV)± 4.5%51%47%--1%[ax]1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[permanent dead link][E]Sep 17–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%45%51%--––
YouGov/CBSSep 15–18, 20201,205 (LV)± 3.7%46%48%--1%[ay]5%
Ipsos/ReutersSep 11–17, 2020586 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%--2%[m]4%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSep 12–14, 20201,158 (LV)± 2.88%44%47%1%1%1%[as]6%
Monmouth UniversitySep 10–13, 2020428 (RV)± 4.7%45%50%2%0%1%[az]3%
428 (LV)45%[ba]50%--1%[bb]3%
46%[bc]49%--1%[bb]3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political ReportAug 29 – Sep 13, 20201,009 (RV)± 4.0%42%43%--4%[bd]11%
Florida Atlantic UniversitySep 11–12, 2020631 (LV)± 3.8%50%50%--0%[be]–
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARPSep 7–8, 20202,689 (LV)± 1.9%47%50%--2%[ag]2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARPAug 30 – Sep 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%46%48%--2%[bf]4%
Morning ConsultAug 29 – Sep 7, 20203,914 (LV)± (2%-4%)43%[bg]50%--––
Change Research/CNBCSep 4–6, 20201,144 (LV)–46%49%--4%[bh]–
Marist College/NBCAug 31 – Sep 5, 2020760 (LV)± 4.5%48%48%--1%2%
Trafalgar GroupSep 1–3, 20201,022 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%2%-1%[bi]2%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAug 30 – Sep 3, 20201,093 (LV)± 2.96%43%48%1%1%1%[as]6%
GQR Research (D)Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%46%51%--––
Quinnipiac Archived September 3, 2020, at the Wayback MachineAug 28 – Sep 1, 20201,235 (LV)± 2.8%45%48%--1%[f]5%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 202012,286 (LV)–50%48%--–2%
Morning ConsultAug 21–30, 20203,790 (LV)± (2%–4%)47%49%--––
Opinium/The Guardian[3]Aug 21–26, 2020684 (LV)–43%50%--1%6%
Change Research/CNBCAug 21–23, 20201,262 (LV)–46%49%--––
PPPAug 21–22, 2020671 (V)± 3.8%44%48%--–7%
Redfield and Wilton StrategiesAug 16, 20201,280 (LV)–41%49%1%-1%[as]7%
Morning ConsultAug 7–16, 20203,484 (LV)± (2%–4%)45%50%--––
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[F]Aug 11–15, 2020750 (LV)± 4%44%46%2%-1%[bj]6%
Change Research/CNBCAug 7–9, 2020469 (LV)–44%50%--––
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[G]Aug 2–4, 2020400 (LV)–49%49%--–2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 202013,945 (LV)–48%49%--–2%
Change Research/CNBC[4]Jul 24–26, 2020685 (LV)–45%48%--––
Morning ConsultJul 17–26, 20203,760 (LV)± 1.6%46%[bg]49%--––
Morning ConsultJul 16–25, 2020– (LV)[ad]–45%49%--––
CNN/SSRSJul 18–24, 2020880 (RV)± 3.8%46%51%--2%[bk]2%
Zogby AnalyticsJul 21–23, 2020811 (RV)± 3.4%43%43%3%2%–9%
Mason-DixonJul 20–23, 2020625 (LV)± 4.0%46%50%--–4%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJul 19–21, 20201,121 (LV)–41%48%1%1%1%[as]8%
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 16–20, 2020924 (RV)± 4.3%38%51%--6%[bl]5%
Morning ConsultJul 6–15, 2020– (LV)[ad]–45%50%--––
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete PollsJul 13–14, 20203,018 (RV)± 1.8%44%50%--2%[bm]3%
Gravis MarketingJul 13, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%43%53%--–4%
Change Research/CNBCJul 10–12, 20201,128 (LV)–43%50%--––
YouGov/CBSJul 7–10, 20201,206 (LV)± 3.6%42%48%--2%[bn]8%
Morning ConsultJun 26 – Jul 5, 2020– (LV)[ad]–46%49%--––
Trafalgar GroupJun 29 – Jul 2, 20201,072 (LV)± 2.91%46%46%--5%[bo]3%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20205,663 (LV)–51%47%--–2%
Change Research/CNBCJun 26–28, 2020951 (LV)[e]–45%50%--––
Morning ConsultJun 16–25, 2020– (LV)[ad]–45%49%--––
Fox NewsJun 20–23, 20201,010 (RV)± 3%40%49%--6%[bp]6%
Siena College/NYT UpshotJun 8–18, 2020651 (RV)± 4.6%41%47%--4%[bq]7%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJun 14–15, 20201,079 (LV)± 2.98%41%45%1%1%1%[as]11%
Morning ConsultJun 6–15, 2020– (LV)[ad]–45%50%--––
Change Research/CNBCJun 12–14, 2020713 (LV)[e]–43%50%--3%[br]–
Gravis Marketing/OANNReleased Jun 11, 2020– (V)[ad]–50%50%--––
TIPP/American Greatness PAC Archived June 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A]Jun 9–11, 2020875 (LV)–40%51%--4%[bs]5%
Morning ConsultMay 27 – Jun 5, 2020– (LV)[ad]–48%47%--––
Change Research/CNBCMay 29–31, 20201,186 (LV)[e]–45%48%--2%4%
Cygnal (R)May 18–30, 2020881 (LV)± 3.3%43.8%47%--3.3%[bt]5.9%
St. Pete PollsMay 26–27, 20204,763 (RV)± 1.4%46.7%47.5%--2.7%[bu]3.1%
Morning ConsultMay 17–26, 20203,593 (LV)–48%[bg]47%--––
Morning ConsultMay 16–25, 2020– (LV)[ad]–48%47%--––
Point Blank PoliticalMay 14–17, 20202,149 (LV)± 3.5%44%45%1%[bv]<1%[bw]2%8%
Point Blank PoliticalMay 14–17, 20202,149 (LV)± 3.5%48%52%--––
Morning ConsultMay 6–15, 2020– (LV)[ad]–50%45%--––
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesMay 10–14, 20201,014 (LV)± 3.1%43%45%--3%[bx]10%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 8–12, 2020928 (RV)± 3.1%47%53%--––
Fox NewsApr 18–21, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%--3%7%
Quinnipiac UniversityApr 16–20, 20201,385 (RV)± 2.6%42%46%--3%7%
St. Pete PollsApr 16–17, 20205,659 (RV)± 1.3%48%48%--–4%
University of North FloridaMar 31 – Apr 4, 20203,244 (RV)± 1.7%40%46%--–8%
AtlasIntelMar 14–16, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%45%45%--10%–
UnivisionMar 6–12, 20201,071 (RV)± 3.0%48%45%--–7%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMar 5–7, 20201,216 (RV)± 2.7%51%49%--––
University of North FloridaFeb, 2020696 (LV)–45%45%--–10%[r]
Saint Leo UniversityFeb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%40%51%--–8%
University of North FloridaFeb 10–18, 2020668 (RV)–48%49%--–3%
Florida Atlantic UniversityJan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%49%51%--––
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H]Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%49%45%--––
Mason-DixonDec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%45%47%--–8%
Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 13–26, 2019650 (LV)± 4.4%44%46%--––
University of North FloridaOct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%43%48%--6%[by]3%
Florida Atlantic UniversitySep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%50.5%49.5%--––
Quinnipiac UniversityJun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%41%50%--1%6%
St. Pete PollsJun 15–16, 20193,095 (LV)± 1.8%47%47%--–6%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%50%50%--––
WPA IntelligenceApr 27–30, 2019200 (LV)± 6.9%48%44%--–7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michael
Bloomberg (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityFeb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%36%52%–12%
University of North FloridaFeb 10–18, 2020672 (RV)–44%50%–6%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H]Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%49%44%––

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityFeb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%40%45%–15%
University of North FloridaFeb 10–18, 2020664 (RV)–49%45%–7%
Florida Atlantic UniversityJan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%50%50%––
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H]Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%50%43%––
Mason-DixonDec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%49%45%–6%
University of North FloridaOct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%43%42%7%[bz]9%
Quinnipiac UniversityJun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%43%44%1%9%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%––

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		OtherUndecided
University of North FloridaOct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%44%41%8%[ca]7%
Florida Atlantic UniversitySep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%52%48%––
Quinnipiac UniversityJun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%44%45%1%7%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%53%47%––

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Amy
Klobuchar (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityFeb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%41%43%–16%
University of North FloridaFeb 10–18, 2020662 (RV)–48%44%–8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityJun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%44%45%1%7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelMar 14–16, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%48%41%11%–
UnivisionMar 6–12, 20201,071 (RV)± 3.0%49%42%–8%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMar 5–7, 20201,216 (LV)± 2.7%53%47%––
Saint Leo UniversityFeb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%40%49%–11%
University of North FloridaFeb 10–18, 2020671 (RV)–48%48%–4%
Florida Atlantic UniversityJan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%47%53%––
Mason-DixonDec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%49%44%–7%
Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 13–26, 2019650 (LV)± 4.4%45%44%––
Florida Atlantic UniversitySep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%50.5%49.5%––
Quinnipiac UniversityJun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%42%48%1%6%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%51%49%––

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityFeb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%42%44%–14%
University of North FloridaFeb 10–18, 2020661 (RV)–47%47%–6%
Florida Atlantic UniversityJan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%49%51%––
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H]Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%50%43%––
Mason-DixonDec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%51%42%–7%
Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 13–26, 2019650 (LV)± 4.4%46%42%––
University of North FloridaOct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%43%46%6%[by]6%
Florida Atlantic UniversitySep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%50%50%––
Quinnipiac UniversityJun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%43%47%1%6%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%––
Zogby AnalyticsAug 17–23, 2017828 (LV)± 3.4%39%48%–14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Oprah
Winfrey (D)		OtherUndecided
Dixie StrategiesJan 9–10, 2018785 (LV)± 3.5%48%24%15%13%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[I]Jun 14–16, 2019679 (V)± 3.8%44%51%6%
Mason-DixonJan 14–17, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%45%46%9%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Quinnipiac UniversityMar 6–11, 20191,058 (V)± 3.7%31%51%[cb]18%[cc]

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence (R)		Joe
Biden (D)		OtherUndecided
University of North FloridaOct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%39%49%8%[ca]5%

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		Undecided
St. Leo UniversitySep 27 – Oct 2, 2020489 (LV)± 3.0%46.8%46.7%6.5%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
University of North FloridaOct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%40%46%8%[ca]6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida[33]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence 		5,668,731 51.22% +2.20%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris		5,297,04547.86%+0.04%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		70,3240.64%−1.56%
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker		14,7210.13%−0.55%
ReformRocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson		5,9660.05%−0.05%
Socialism and LiberationGloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman		5,7120.05%N/A
ConstitutionDon Blankenship
William Mohr		3,9020.04%−0.13%
Write-in1,0550.01%−0.26%
Total votes11,067,456 100.00%

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Write-ins		MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Alachua50,97235.63%89,70462.71%2,3711.66%-38,732-27.08%143,047
Baker11,91184.58%2,03714.47%1340.95%9,87470.11%14,082
Bay66,09770.91%25,61427.48%1,5021.61%40,48343.43%93,213
Bradford10,33475.71%3,16023.15%1561.14%7,17452.56%13,650
Brevard207,88357.48%148,54941.08%5,2211.44%59,33416.40%361,653
Broward333,40934.74%618,75264.48%7,4790.78%-285,343-29.74%959,640
Calhoun5,27480.68%1,20918.49%540.83%4,06562.19%6,537
Charlotte73,24362.84%42,27336.27%1,0420.89%30,97026.57%116,558
Citrus65,35269.98%27,09229.01%9441.01%38,26040.97%93,388
Clay84,48067.77%38,31730.74%1,8631.49%46,16337.03%124,660
Collier128,95061.91%77,62137.27%1,7140.82%51,32924.64%208,285
Columbia23,83672.03%8,91426.94%3421.03%14,82245.09%33,092
DeSoto8,31365.58%4,25933.60%1040.82%4,05431.98%12,676
Dixie6,75982.70%1,36516.70%490.60%5,39466.00%8,173
Duval233,76247.30%252,55651.11%7,8431.59%-18,794-3.81%494,161
Escambia96,67456.58%70,92941.51%3,2531.91%25,74515.07%170,856
Flagler43,04359.90%28,16139.19%6590.91%14,88220.71%71,863
Franklin4,67568.16%2,12030.91%640.93%2,55537.25%6,859
Gadsden7,46531.42%16,15367.98%1440.60%-8,688-36.56%23,762
Gilchrist7,89581.37%1,70017.52%1071.11%6,19563.85%9,702
Glades3,78272.69%1,38526.62%360.69%2,39746.07%5,203
Gulf6,11374.80%1,98524.29%740.91%4,12850.51%8,172
Hamilton3,81565.33%1,96333.61%621.06%1,85231.72%5,840
Hardee6,12272.01%2,29827.03%820.96%3,82444.98%8,502
Hendry7,90661.02%4,92938.04%1210.94%2,97722.98%12,956
Hernando70,41264.51%37,51934.37%1,2191.12%32,89330.14%109,150
Highlands34,87366.75%16,93832.42%4320.83%17,93534.33%52,243
Hillsborough327,39845.85%376,36752.71%10,3031.44%-48,969-6.86%714,068
Holmes8,08089.01%92410.18%740.81%7,15678.83%9,078
Indian River58,87260.23%37,84438.72%1,0241.05%21,02821.51%97,740
Jackson15,48868.97%6,76630.13%2020.90%8,72238.84%22,456
Jefferson4,47952.89%3,89746.02%921.09%3826.87%8,468
Lafayette3,12885.42%51013.93%240.65%2,61871.49%3,662
Lake125,85959.56%83,50539.52%1,9500.92%42,35420.04%211,314
Lee233,24759.09%157,69539.95%3,8160.96%75,55219.14%394,758
Leon57,45335.14%103,51763.32%2,5061.54%-46,064-28.18%163,476
Levy16,74972.24%6,20526.76%2311.00%10,54445.48%23,185
Liberty2,84679.83%69419.47%250.70%2,15260.36%3,565
Madison5,57659.36%3,74739.89%700.75%1,82919.47%9,393
Manatee124,98757.47%90,16641.46%2,3191.07%34,82116.01%217,472
Marion127,82662.44%74,85836.57%2,0320.99%52,96825.87%204,716
Martin61,16861.82%36,89337.29%8810.89%24,27524.53%98,942
Miami-Dade532,83345.98%617,86453.31%8,2210.71%-85,931-7.33%1,158,918
Monroe25,69353.38%21,88145.46%5611.16%3,8127.92%48,135
Nassau42,56672.25%15,56426.42%7851.33%27,00245.83%58,915
Okaloosa79,79868.35%34,24829.34%2,6972.31%45,55039.01%116,743
Okeechobee11,47071.76%4,39027.46%1240.78%7,08044.30%15,984
Orange245,39837.80%395,01460.85%8,7451.35%-149,616-23.05%649,157
Osceola73,48042.53%97,29756.31%2,0071.16%-23,817-13.78%172,784
Palm Beach334,71143.21%433,57255.97%6,3140.82%-98,861-12.76%774,597
Pasco179,62159.36%119,07339.35%3,9271.29%60,54820.01%302,621
Pinellas276,20949.22%277,45049.44%7,5021.34%-1,241-0.22%561,161
Polk194,58656.56%145,04942.16%4,3911.28%49,53714.40%344,026
Putnam25,51470.05%10,52728.90%3811.05%14,98741.15%36,422
St. Johns110,94662.66%63,85036.06%2,2511.28%47,09626.60%177,047
St. Lucie86,83150.38%84,13748.82%1,3810.80%2,6941.56%172,349
Santa Rosa77,38572.19%27,61225.76%2,2012.05%49,77346.43%107,198
Sarasota148,37054.71%120,11044.29%2,6891.00%28,26010.42%271,169
Seminole125,24147.89%132,52850.67%3,7641.44%-7,287-2.78%261,533
Sumter62,76167.76%29,34131.68%5220.56%33,42036.08%92,624
Suwannee16,41077.84%4,48521.27%1880.89%11,92556.57%21,083
Taylor7,75176.45%2,29922.68%880.87%5,45253.77%10,138
Union5,13382.11%1,05316.85%651.04%4,08065.26%6,251
Volusia173,82156.42%130,57542.38%3,7131.20%43,24614.04%308,109
Wakulla12,87469.79%5,35129.01%2231.20%7,52340.78%18,448
Walton32,94775.23%10,33823.61%5101.16%22,60951.62%43,795
Washington9,87680.06%2,34719.03%1120.91%7,52961.03%12,335
Totals5,668,73151.11%5,297,04547.76%125,9821.13%371,6863.35%11,091,758

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican.[34]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st65.9%32.4%Matt Gaetz
2nd67%32%Neal Dunn
3rd56%42.8%Ted Yoho
Kat Cammack
4th59.9%38.9%John Rutherford
5th36.2%62.7%Al Lawson
6th58.3%40.8%Michael Waltz
7th44.2%54.6%Stephanie Murphy
8th58.3%40.6%Bill Posey
9th46%52.9%Darren Soto
10th37%62%Val Demings
11th65.4%33.8%Daniel Webster
12th57.9%41%Gus Bilirakis
13th47.4%51.5%Charlie Crist
14th41.6%57.2%Kathy Castor
15th53.7%45.2%Ross Spano
Scott Franklin
16th53.6%45.5%Vern Buchanan
17th63.3%35.9%Greg Steube
18th53.9%45.5%Brian Mast
19th59.7%39.6%Francis Rooney
Byron Donalds
20th22.1%77.3%Alcee Hastings
21st41.2%58.2%Lois Frankel
22nd42.3%57.2%Ted Deutch
23rd41.2%58.3%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th24%75.4%Frederica Wilson
25th61.2%38.2%Mario Díaz-Balart
26th52.5%46.9%Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Carlos Giménez
27th48.1%51.3%Donna Shalala
Maria Elvira Salazar

Analysis

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004.[35]

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.[36][37] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884.[38]

Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida was one of six states where Trump received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2016.[cd] Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes.[39] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[40]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical Venezuelan vote swinging Republican.[41] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior.[42] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.[43] Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.[44] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.[45]

Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics.[42]

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Florida by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[46][47]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote47.8651.22100
Ideology
Liberals831619
Moderates594042
Conservatives168339
Party
Democrats94530
Republicans79338
Independents544332
Gender
Men455445
Women514855
Race/ethnicity
White376262
Black891014
Latino534619
Asian––1
Other55443
Age
18–24 years old57427
25–29 years old64356
30–39 years old485013
40–49 years old485113
50–64 years old455428
65 and older455532
Sexual orientation
LGBT83156
Not LGBT465394
Education
High school or less445619
Some college education504925
Associate degree455320
Bachelor's degree495022
Postgraduate degree534514
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality861213
Coronavirus881018
Economy138738
Crime and safety128810
Health care831613
Region
North/Panhandle415818
Orlando/Central Atlantic514819
Tampa Bay area485116
Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida396020
Miami/Gold Coast584127
Area type
Urban554441
Suburban445550
Rural38619
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago188144
Worse than four years ago841519
About the same673236

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

References

Further reading

Videos

External links

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