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2020 United States presidential election in Virginia

(Redirected from United States presidential election in Virginia, 2020)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Virginia
← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout75.07 Increase 5.8 pp[1]
 
NomineeJoe BidenDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateDelawareFlorida
Running mateKamala HarrisMike Pence
Electoral vote130
Popular vote2,415,2161,960,103
Percentage54.15%43.95%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with 54.15% of the vote, and by a margin of 10.2%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.[4] Trump became the first Republican incumbent to consecutively lose Virginia since William Howard Taft and Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City since 1948, Virginia Beach City since 1964, James City County since 1968, and Stafford County since 1976.[5] He also flipped Chesapeake City back to the Democratic Party. Trump flipped no counties or independent cities in the state. Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since 1960 to win without Westmoreland County, a notable bellwether. He was the first Democrat to ever win without Caroline County, Nelson County, or Covington.[citation needed]

The diversification of Northern Virginia as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans allowed Biden to win the once-key battleground state without actively campaigning in it. Biden won Henrico County, Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Fairfax County with 63.7%, 61.5%, 63.6%, and 69.9%, respectively; all four were former suburban bastions of the Republican Party in Virginia, the first outside Richmond and the others in Northern Virginia. All four had voted Republican in every election from 1968 through 2000. In Arlington County, a closer DC-area suburban county that had turned Democratic several decades earlier, Biden won with 80.6% of the vote, becoming the first nominee of either party in more than a century to do so. Biden's combined margin in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties was greater than his statewide margin of victory. Crucially for his performance in Northern Virginia, Biden carried government workers by 18%.[6]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

The Virginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses.[7] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[8][9] At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[7][10][11]

Democratic primary

Sanders at a rally in Richmond on February 27, 2020

The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.

Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates.[12]

Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary[13][a]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[15]
Joe Biden705,50153.3067
Bernie Sanders306,38823.1531
Elizabeth Warren142,54610.771
Michael Bloomberg128,0309.67
Tulsi Gabbard11,2880.85
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b]11,1990.85
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b]8,4140.64
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[c]3,3610.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn)1,9100.14
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b]1,4720.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[c]1,4370.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)9020.07
Julian Castro (withdrawn)6910.05
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[c]3700.03
Write-in votes1840.01
Total1,323,693100%99

Green primary

The Green Party of Virginia conducted an online ranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020.[16]

2020 Green Party of Virginia primary[16]
CandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Howie Hawkins4262.7%4262.7%4364.2%4465.7%
Dario Hunter1725.4%1826.9%2131.3%2334.3%
Kent Mesplay34.5%34.5%34.5%Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry23.0%23.0%Eliminated
Jill Stein (write-in)23.0%Eliminated
Jesse Ventura (write-in)11.5%Eliminated
Total votes67100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[17]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
Inside Elections[18]Solid DNovember 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
Politico[20]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
RCP[21]Lean DNovember 3, 2020
Niskanen[22]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
CNN[23]Solid DNovember 3, 2020
The Economist[24]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
CBS News[25]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
270towin[26]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
ABC News[27]Solid DNovember 3, 2020
NPR[28]Likely DSeptember 16, 2020
NBC News[29]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
538[30]Solid DNovember 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other/
Undecided
[d]		Margin
270 to WinOctober 15–31, 2020November 3, 202052.8%41.0%6.2%Biden +11.8
FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202053.7%41.9%4.4%Biden +11.8
Average53.1%40.5%5.3%Biden +11.8

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		Howie
Hawkins
Green		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20204,550 (LV)± 2%41%[f]57%--––
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback MachineOct 27 – Nov 1, 2020467 (LV)± 6.4%39%59%2%1%––
Data for ProgressOct 27 – Nov 1, 2020690 (LV)± 3.7%43%54%1%0%1%[g]–
Roanoke CollegeOct 23–29, 2020802 (LV)± 3.5%42%53%2%-1%2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20207,663 (LV)–43%55%--––
Christopher Newport UniversityOct 15–27, 2020908 (LV)± 3.4%41%53%--2%[h]4%
SwayableOct 23–26, 2020351 (LV)± 5.2%44%55%1%-––
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityOct 13–22, 2020709 (LV)± 4.93%39%51%--2%[i]8%[j]
Schar School/Washington PostOct 13–19, 2020908 (LV)± 4%41%52%3%-0%[k]4%
Civiqs/Daily KosOct 11–14, 20201,231 (LV)± 3.1%42%55%--3%[l]1%
Reconnect Research/Roanoke CollegeSep 30 – Oct 12, 2020602 (LV)–39%[m]54%4%--4%
Survey Monkey/TableauSep 15 – Oct 12, 20204,248 (LV)–43%55%--–2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[A]Oct 9–11, 2020607 (LV)–42%51%--––
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,882 (LV)–42%56%--–2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[1][A]Sep 22–25, 2020600 (LV)–41%52%--––
Christopher Newport UniversitySep 9–21, 2020796 (LV)± 3.9%43%48%--2%[n]7%
Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback MachineAug 28 – Sep 7, 2020693 (LV)± 6.22%39%52%--1%[o]8%[j]
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20202,626 (LV)–41%57%--–2%
Roanoke CollegeAug 9–22, 2020566 (LV)± 4.1%39%53%--3%[p]5%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20203,178 (LV)–43%55%--–2%
Morning ConsultJul 17–26, 20201,156 (LV)± 2.9%41%52%--––
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityJul 11–19, 2020725 (LV)± 6.2%39%50%--1%10%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20201,619 (LV)–42%57%--–1%
Morning ConsultMay 17–26, 20201,148 (LV)–42%[q]52%--––
Roanoke CollegeMay 3–16, 2020563 (LV)± 4.1%39%51%--––
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityMar 25 – Apr 8, 2020812 (A)± 4.5%41%51%--–8%
Hampton UniversityFeb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%38%45%--––
Roanoke CollegeFeb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%48%--––
Mason-DixonDec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%45%49%--–6%
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityDec 2–13, 2019728 (LV)± 5.1%46%49%--–5%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth UniversitySep 23 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%44%52%--–4%[j]
University of Mary Washington/Research AmericaSep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%37%55%--1%4%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Hampton UniversityFeb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%38%43%
Roanoke CollegeFeb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%46%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		Undecided
Hampton UniversityFeb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%38%41%–
Roanoke CollegeFeb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%47%–
Mason-DixonDec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%47%45%8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Mary WashingtonSep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%38%50%2%5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Hampton UniversityFeb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%37%39%
Roanoke CollegeFeb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%39%46%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
Hampton UniversityFeb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%39%44%––
Roanoke CollegeFeb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%49%––
Mason-DixonDec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%51%45%–4%
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityDec 2–13, 2019728 (LV)± 5.1%48%45%–7%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth UniversitySep 2 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%47%48%–5%[j]
University of Mary Washington/Research AmericaSep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%38%53%2%4%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
Hampton UniversityFeb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%40%42%––
Roanoke CollegeFeb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%41%48%––
Mason-DixonDec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%48%44%–8%
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityDec 2–13, 2019728 (LV)± 5.1%47%47%–6%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth UniversitySep 23 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%46%50%–4%[j]
University of Mary WashingtonSep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%38%53%1%5%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
Wason Center, Christopher
Newport University		Sep 4–30, 2019726 (RV)± 4.1%36%51%6%[r]6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Opponent		OtherUndecided
Wason Center, Christopher
Newport University		Feb 3–23, 2020866 (RV)± 3.5%38%59%[s]0%[t]2%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
Virginia Commonwealth UniversitySep 23 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%48%49%–3%[j]
Ipsos/University of VirginiaFeb 15–19, 2019636 (A)± 4.0%25%45%3%20%

Results

Line for early voting in Herndon
2020 United States presidential election in Virginia[31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,415,216 54.15% +4.42%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence		1,960,10343.95%-0.46%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		64,7611.45%-1.52%
Write-in19,7650.44%-0.41%
Total votes4,459,845 100.00%

Results by city and county

County/CityJoe Biden
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Accomack7,57844.68%9,17254.07%2121.25%-1,594-9.39%16,962
Albemarle42,46665.68%20,80432.18%1,3872.14%21,66233.50%64,657
Alexandria66,24080.28%14,54417.63%1,7242.09%51,69662.65%82,508
Alleghany2,24327.34%5,85971.43%1011.23%-3,616-44.09%8,203
Amelia2,41130.55%5,39068.29%921.16%-2,979-37.74%7,893
Amherst5,67233.35%11,04164.93%2921.72%-5,369-31.58%17,005
Appomattox2,41826.09%6,70272.31%1481.60%-4,284-46.22%9,268
Arlington105,34480.60%22,31817.08%3,0372.32%83,02663.52%130,699
Augusta10,84025.64%30,71472.65%7241.71%-19,874-47.01%42,278
Bath64625.83%1,83473.33%210.84%-1,188-47.50%2,501
Bedford12,17625.02%35,60073.15%8931.83%-23,424-48.13%48,669
Bland53215.29%2,90383.44%441.27%-2,371-68.15%3,479
Botetourt5,70026.99%15,09971.49%3211.52%-9,399-44.50%21,120
Bristol2,31329.63%5,34768.50%1461.87%-3,034-38.87%7,806
Brunswick4,55257.27%3,35742.24%390.49%1,19515.03%7,948
Buchanan1,58715.94%8,31183.50%550.56%-6,724-67.56%9,953
Buckingham3,47142.71%4,54455.92%1111.37%-1,073-13.21%8,126
Buena Vista82529.72%1,86367.11%883.17%-1,038-37.39%2,776
Campbell8,07027.00%21,24571.07%5771.93%-13,175-44.07%29,892
Caroline7,65747.01%8,33651.18%2951.81%-679-4.17%16,288
Carroll2,84218.16%12,65980.88%1500.96%-9,817-62.72%15,651
Charles City2,62459.09%1,76139.65%561.26%86319.44%4,441
Charlotte2,31737.43%3,81561.62%590.95%-1,498-24.19%6,191
Charlottesville20,69685.50%3,09412.78%4151.72%17,60272.72%24,205
Chesapeake66,37752.22%58,18045.77%2,5512.01%8,1976.45%127,108
Chesterfield106,93552.45%93,32645.77%3,6231.78%13,6096.68%203,884
Clarke3,92041.98%5,19255.61%2252.41%-1,272-13.63%9,337
Colonial Heights2,97232.50%6,00765.68%1671.82%-3,035-33.18%9,146
Covington96437.03%1,58060.70%592.27%-616-23.67%16,962
Craig58718.52%2,53680.03%461.45%-1,949-61.51%3,169
Culpeper10,61739.15%16,01259.05%4871.80%-5,395-19.90%27,116
Cumberland2,22741.94%3,01956.85%641.21%-792-14.91%5,310
Danville11,71060.40%7,42838.31%2511.30%4,28222.09%19,389
Dickenson1,50320.58%5,74878.71%520.71%-4,245-58.13%7,303
Dinwiddie6,22441.24%8,69557.61%1731.15%-2,471-16.37%15,092
Emporia1,61267.70%75431.67%150.63%85836.03%64,657
Essex3,03849.17%3,07549.77%651.06%-37-0.60%6,178
Fairfax419,94369.89%168,40128.03%12,4792.08%251,54241.86%600,823
Fairfax City9,17468.04%4,00729.72%3022.24%5,16738.32%13,483
Falls Church7,14681.03%1,49016.90%1832.07%5,65664.13%8,819
Fauquier17,56540.23%25,10657.50%9902.27%-7,541-17.27%43,661
Floyd3,00431.93%6,22566.17%1791.90%-3,221-34.24%9,408
Fluvanna7,41446.81%8,15551.48%2711.71%-741-4.67%15,840
Franklin8,38128.22%20,89570.35%4261.43%-12,514-42.13%29,702
Franklin City2,52562.22%1,48736.64%461.14%1,03825.58%4,058
Frederick17,20735.33%30,55862.74%9381.93%-13,351-27.41%48,703
Fredericksburg8,51766.22%4,03731.39%3082.39%4,48034.83%12,862
Galax77729.45%1,83869.67%230.88%-1,061-40.22%2,638
Giles2,15623.50%6,87674.93%1441.57%-4,720-51.43%9,176
Gloucester6,96431.25%14,87566.76%4431.99%-7,911-35.51%22,282
Goochland6,68539.44%9,96658.80%2991.76%-3,281-19.36%16,950
Grayson1,53518.88%6,52980.30%670.82%-4,994-61.42%8,131
Greene4,16336.80%6,86660.70%2822.50%-2,703-23.90%11,311
Greensville2,62757.43%1,91441.85%330.72%71315.58%4,574
Halifax7,66642.01%10,41857.09%1640.90%-2,752-15.08%18,248
Hampton46,22070.14%18,43027.97%1,2511.89%27,79042.17%65,901
Hanover25,30735.66%44,31862.45%1,3421.89%-19,011-26.79%70,967
Harrisonburg11,02264.51%5,59132.72%4732.77%5,43131.79%17,086
Henrico116,57263.65%63,44034.64%3,1401.71%53,13229.01%183,152
Henry9,12734.96%16,72564.07%2530.97%-7,598-29.11%26,105
Highland41727.20%1,09271.23%241.57%-675-44.03%1,533
Hopewell5,43056.52%4,02041.84%1581.64%1,41014.68%9,608
Isle of Wight9,39940.07%13,70758.44%3501.49%-4,308-18.37%23,456
James City25,55351.50%23,15346.66%9161.84%2,4004.84%49,622
King and Queen1,59038.64%2,45059.54%751.82%-860-20.90%4,115
King George5,40437.99%8,44659.38%3742.63%-3,042-21.39%14,224
King William3,26030.37%7,32068.18%1561.45%-4,060-37.81%10,736
Lancaster3,36847.09%3,69751.69%871.22%-329-4.60%7,152
Lee1,48914.97%8,36584.10%920.93%-6,876-69.13%9,946
Lexington1,79164.84%90632.80%652.36%88532.04%2,762
Loudoun138,37261.54%82,08836.51%4,4021.95%56,28425.03%224,862
Louisa8,26937.73%13,29460.66%3521.61%-5,025-22.93%21,915
Lunenburg2,41840.30%3,53758.95%450.75%-1,119-18.65%6,000
Lynchburg18,04849.63%17,09747.02%1,2183.35%9512.61%36,363
Madison2,69833.19%5,30065.20%1311.61%-2,602-32.01%8,129
Manassas10,35661.03%6,25636.87%3562.10%4,10024.16%16,968
Manassas Park3,99265.58%1,97932.51%1161.91%2,01333.07%6,087
Martinsville3,76662.63%2,16536.01%821.36%1,60126.62%6,013
Mathews1,82531.33%3,90166.96%1001.71%-2,076-35.63%5,826
Mecklenburg6,80341.98%9,26657.18%1350.84%-2,463-15.20%16,204
Middlesex2,49136.71%4,19661.84%981.45%-1,705-25.13%6,785
Montgomery23,21851.55%20,62945.80%1,1902.65%2,5895.75%45,037
Nelson4,32746.45%4,81251.65%1771.90%-485-5.20%9,316
New Kent4,62131.95%9,63166.59%2111.46%-5,010-34.64%14,463
Newport News53,09965.39%26,37732.48%1,7272.13%26,72232.91%81,203
Norfolk64,44071.69%23,44326.08%1,9982.23%40,99745.61%89,881
Northampton3,66754.47%2,95543.89%1101.64%71210.58%6,732
Northumberland3,25241.61%4,48557.39%781.00%-1,233-15.78%7,815
Norton46428.98%1,10969.27%281.75%-645-40.29%1,601
Nottoway2,97141.98%4,02756.89%801.13%-1,056-14.91%7,078
Orange7,99538.54%12,42659.91%3211.55%-4,431-21.37%20,742
Page3,00724.03%9,34574.68%1621.29%-6,338-50.65%12,514
Patrick1,95420.50%7,48578.51%950.99%-5,531-58.01%9,534
Petersburg12,38987.75%1,58411.22%1451.03%10,80576.53%14,118
Pittsylvania10,11529.55%23,75169.39%3611.06%-13,636-39.84%34,227
Poquoson2,05426.14%5,60571.34%1982.52%-3,551-45.20%7,857
Portsmouth30,94869.42%12,75528.61%8791.97%18,19340.81%44,582
Powhatan5,32026.96%14,05571.24%3551.80%-8,735-44.28%19,730
Prince Edward4,97351.94%4,43446.31%1671.75%5395.63%9,574
Prince George7,10340.75%10,10357.96%2261.29%-3,000-17.21%17,432
Prince William142,86362.64%81,22235.61%3,9711.75%61,64127.03%228,056
Pulaski4,92528.34%12,12769.79%3241.87%-7,202-41.45%17,376
Radford3,35853.13%2,78644.08%1762.79%5729.05%6,320
Rappahannock2,09642.11%2,81256.49%701.40%-716-14.38%4,978
Richmond1,51336.88%2,54762.09%421.03%-1,034-25.21%4,102
Richmond City92,17582.92%16,60314.94%2,3812.14%75,57267.98%111,159
Roanoke21,80138.12%34,26859.93%1,1151.95%-12,467-21.81%57,184
Roanoke City26,77361.80%15,60736.02%9432.18%11,16625.78%43,323
Rockbridge4,08633.02%8,08865.37%1991.61%-4,002-32.35%12,373
Rockingham12,64428.86%30,34969.27%8181.87%-17,705-40.41%43,811
Russell2,37317.73%10,87981.27%1341.00%-8,506-63.54%13,386
Salem5,14839.45%7,68358.87%2201.68%-2,535-19.42%13,051
Scott1,69215.57%9,06383.38%1141.05%-7,371-67.81%10,869
Shenandoah6,83628.86%16,46369.51%3851.63%-9,627-40.65%23,684
Smyth3,00821.28%10,96377.55%1651.17%-7,955-56.27%14,136
Southampton3,96940.56%5,73058.55%870.89%-1,761-17.99%9,786
Spotsylvania34,30745.55%39,41152.33%1,5992.12%-5,104-6.78%75,317
Stafford40,24550.54%37,63647.27%1,7442.19%2,6093.27%79,625
Staunton6,98153.74%5,69543.84%3142.42%1,2869.90%12,990
Suffolk28,67657.77%20,08240.45%8841.78%8,59417.32%49,642
Surry2,39753.61%2,02545.29%491.10%3728.32%4,471
Sussex2,82755.56%2,21943.61%420.83%60811.95%5,088
Tazewell3,20515.92%16,73183.10%1980.98%-13,526-67.18%20,134
Virginia Beach117,39351.59%105,08746.18%5,0812.23%12,3065.41%227,561
Warren6,60331.22%14,06966.53%4752.25%-7,466-35.31%21,147
Washington6,61723.07%21,67975.58%3891.35%-15,062-52.51%28,685
Waynesboro4,96146.29%5,50751.39%2492.32%-546-5.10%10,717
Westmoreland4,50145.31%5,31853.54%1141.15%-817-8.23%9,933
Williamsburg4,79069.59%1,96328.52%1301.89%2,82741.07%6,883
Winchester6,61054.60%5,22143.13%2752.27%1,38911.47%12,106
Wise3,11018.72%13,36680.45%1390.83%-10,256-61.73%16,615
Wythe3,14320.85%11,73377.85%1961.30%-8,590-57.00%15,072
York17,68345.59%20,24152.19%8632.22%-2,558-6.60%38,787
Totals2,413,56854.11%1,962,43044.00%84,5261.89%451,13810.11%4,460,524

Results by congressional district

Biden won 7 out of Virginia's 11 congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st51.4%47%Rob Wittman
2nd46.7%51.4%Elaine Luria
3rd31.2%67.2%Bobby Scott
4th36.8%61.8%Donald McEachin
5th53.6%45.1%Denver Riggleman
Bob Good
6th59.8%38.6%Ben Cline
7th48.7%49.8%Abigail Spanberger
8th21.1%77.6%Don Beyer
9th70.4%28.4%Morgan Griffith
10th39.6%58.9%Jennifer Wexton
11th28.3%70.3%Gerry Connolly

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

In this election, Virginia voted 5.6% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Although Virginia was considered a reliably Republican state at the presidential level from 1952 to 2004 (having only gone to the Democrats once during that period, in Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide), it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004. In recent years, densely populated counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., have tilted towards the Democrats. This was the first election since 1988 that a presidential candidate won Virginia by double digits (George H. W. Bush having carried the state by 20.5% in his first run), and the first election in which any presidential candidate received over 2 million votes in Virginia.

As fellow Southern state Georgia tilted towards Biden, he became the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to carry both states. This was also the first election in which a former Confederate state backed a Democratic candidate by a margin of victory greater than 10% since 1996, when Arkansas and Louisiana did so for Bill Clinton.

Following the election, news and political analysts considered the presidential results in Virginia, along with Democrats holding the senate seat held by Mark Warner, their house congressional majority, plus the previous year's elections in which Democrats flipped the state General Assembly, to be indicative that it was no longer a swing state, but a blue state.[32][33]

Their domination of state and local offices would be short-lived, however, as in 2021 the Republicans flipped the Democratic-held offices of governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, as well as winning control of the Virginia House of Delegates.[34][35] In 2023, Democrats recaptured the House of Delegates, winning full control of the General Assembly once again, albeit by narrower margins than what they acquired in 2019.

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupBidenTrumpNo
Answer		% of
Voters
Party
Democrat964N/A36
Republican990N/A34
Independent5738N/A30
Gender
Men4948149
Women6138151
Race
White4553267
Black8910118
Latino613637
Asian603824
Other504373
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men3958333
White women5049133
Black men8614N/A8
Black women928N/A11
Latino men (of any race)534163
Latino women (of any race)6832N/A4
All other races584028
Gender by marital status
Married men5049N/A29
Married women5147N/A28
Unmarried men5839320
Unmarried women6930N/A23
Parents
Men with children4949115
Women with children5841119
Men no children5343434
Women no children6038232
Age
18–24 years old6233112
25–29 years old633438
30–39 years old6038217
40–49 years old6336116
50–64 years old4851N/A29
65 and older4554118
LGBT
Yes8311N/A5
No5343495
First time voter
First time voter653239
Everyone else5542N/A91
U.S. military veteran
Yes3662N/A16
No5938N/A84
Education
College graduate5740N/A43
No college degree5346157
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates5245333
White no college degree3862N/A34
Non-white college graduates7524110
Non-white no college degree7622223
Income
Under $50,0006039133
$50,000–99,9995247127
Over $100,0004653141
Abortion should be
Legal7820254
Illegal2969142
Area Type
Urban6434224
Suburban5345260
Rural4652216
Region
DC Suburbs6830N/A30
Central Virginia4453316
Hampton Roads6236N/A16
Richmond/Southside5642N/A18
Mountain3563N/A20
Source: CNN[36]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links

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