2008 United States Senate election in South Dakota

In 2002, Tim Johnson was re-elected by a narrow margin of 527 votes, the closest senate contest in the country that cycle.^[2] Two years later, Republicans flipped the state’s other senate seat, ousting then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.^[3] Heading into 2008, the seat was poised to be a heavily contested one, and Republicans saw as a strong potential flip.^[4]

But the race would be upended on December 13, 2006, when Senator Johnson was hospitalized with what was later revealed to be a brain hemorrhage.^[5][6] This immediately shook up the state of the race, and dashed much of the discourse surrounding it for a time.^[7] On the Democratic side, there was uncertainty if Johnson would be able to return to the Senate, and speculation surrounded whether Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, the state's at-large Congresswoman, would run in his place.^[8][9]

However, by all accounts, Johnson still intended to run for re-election as long as his health kept improving, and prominent Democrats such as Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy held fundraisers for Johnson.^[9] After a 9 month absence, Johnson returned to the Senate in August 2007, and was back to his duties as Senator in September 2007.^[10] One month later, Johnson ended all speculation, by announcing his bid for re-election.^[11]

Candidates

• Joel Dykstra, South Dakota State Representative
• Charles Gonyo
• Sam Kephart

Declined

• Dennis Daugaard, incumbent Lieutenant Governor since 2003^[12]
• Dusty Johnson, member of the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission^[13][14]
• Mike Rounds, incumbent Governor since 2003^[12]

Campaign

Republican efforts for recruitment were frustrated by Johnson's situation and the sympathy boost that came with it.^[15] Significant hope was given to the possibility of recruiting second term governor Mike Rounds to run against Johnson, but Rounds showed little interest.^[12] Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard, who was wealthy and could self fund, was also sought, but he was planning a gubernatorial bid for 2010.^[12] On July 5, 2007, Joel Dykstra, a state representative, entered but he was seen as having long odds and as not a top-tier candidate.^[16][17]

Results

Candidates

• Tim Johnson (D), incumbent U.S. Senator
• Joel Dykstra (R), South Dakota State Representative

Campaign

Already a well-regarded figure, following health problems, Johnson became more popular. "South Dakota is a very kind state," Steve Jarding, a Harvard political scientist who ran Johnson's campaign, said. "People were rooting for Tim—Democrats, Republicans, independents—they wanted him to be O.K.^[4]" He was also seen a pragmatic moderate. He received endorsements from the Republican Mayor of Sioux Falls, Dave Munson, and the NRA Political Victory Fund.^[19] Johnson also received the endorsement of former Senator Larry Pressler, who Johnson beat in 1996.^[20][21]

Dykstra argued that Johnson voted 80% of the time with U.S. Senator Barack Obama and 90% with U.S. Senator Harry Reid. In response, Johnson pointed out his votes on the confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court justices John Roberts/Samuel Alito, against flag burning, in favor for the Iraq War, Patriot Act, a ban on partial birth abortion, etc.^[22]

Dykstra tried to turn the race around by comparing Johnson to Larry Pressler in 1996, and that Dykstra would work better with the state's other senator.^[23] Dykstra also focused on high gas prices, highlighting his experience in the energy industry, and a focus on alternate energy sources.^[24] But Johnson’s popularity and sympathy proved to be the main factor, giving him a large amount of sympathy vote.^[25]

Predictions

Polling

Results

While John McCain won the state comfortably, Johnson easily won re-election to a third term, losing in only four counties. His friend and fellow Democrat, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin easily won re-election to South Dakota's at-large congressional district.^[30]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Union (Largest city: Dakota Dunes)
• Hutchinson (largest city: Parkston)
• Lincoln (largest city: Sioux Falls)
• Turner (largest city: Parker)
• Butte (largest city: Belle Fourche)
• Meade (largest city: Sturgis)
• Custer (largest city: Custer)
• Pennington (largest city: Rapid City)
• Lawrence (largest city: Spearfish)
• Fall River (largest city: Hot Springs)
• Stanley (largest city: Fort Peirre)
• Jackson (largest city: Kadoka)
• Potter (largest city: Gettysburg)
• Sully (largest city: Onida)
• Hughes (largest city: Pierre)
• Hyde (largest city: Highmore)
• Walworth (largest city: Mobridge)
• Campbell (largest city: Herreid)
• McPherson (largest city: Eureka)
• Tripp (largest city: Winner)
• Gregory (largest city: Gregory)
• Hamlin (largest city: Estelline)
• Davison (largest city: Mitchell)
• Douglas (largest city: Armour)
• Hanson (largest city: Alexandria)

• 2008 United States Senate elections

• Elections & Voter Registration from the South Dakota Secretary of State
• U.S. Congress candidates for South Dakota at Project Vote Smart
• South Dakota, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
• South Dakota U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• South Dakota Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
• Dykstra (R) vs Johnson (D-i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Official campaign websites
  • Joel Dykstra, Republican nominee
  • Tim Johnson, Democratic incumbent nominee