2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

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NomineeJohn KitzhaberChris Dudley
PartyDemocraticRepublican
AllianceIndependent Party
Popular vote716,525694,287
Percentage49.29%47.76%

County results

Kitzhaber:      40–50%      50–60%      70–80%

Dudley:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Ted Kulongoski
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Kitzhaber
Democratic

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1]Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties.[2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate administeredJohn KitzhaberBill BradburyUndecided
Davis, Hibbetts & MidghallMay 8–10, 201053%23%22%
Survey USAMay 7–9, 201059%25%12%

Results

Results by county:
  Kitzhaber
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary results[3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJohn Kitzhaber 242,545 64.78
DemocraticBill Bradbury110,29829.46
DemocraticRoger Obrist16,0574.29
DemocraticWrite-ins5,5041.47
Total votes374,404 100.00

Republican primary

Chris Dudley sign

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate administeredChris DudleyAllen AlleyJohn LimBill SizemoreUndecided
Davis, Hibbetts & MidghallMay 8–10, 201033%23%8%6%24%
Survey USAMay 7–9, 201042%24%8%8%14%

Results

Results by county:
  Dudley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Alley
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results[3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChris Dudley 122,855 39.11
RepublicanAllen Alley99,75331.76
RepublicanJohn Lim47,33915.07
RepublicanBill Sizemore23,5227.49
RepublicanWilliam Ames Curtright12,4973.98
RepublicanRex O. Watkins3,0600.97
RepublicanWrite-ins2,0010.64
RepublicanClark Colvin1,2060.38
RepublicanDarren Karr1,1270.36
RepublicanBob Forthan7270.23
Total votes314,087 100.00

Independent Party primary

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1]As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.[4] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,[5]and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.[6]Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.[4]

Candidates

Results

Independent Party of Oregon gubernatorial primary results[7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJohn Kitzhaber 850 38.39
Independent PartyRichard Esterman43819.78
Independent PartyWrite-ins31414.18
Independent PartyNone of the above31214.09
ProgressiveJerry Wilson30013.55
Total votes2,214 100.00

General election

Voters' pamphlet for the 2010 general election

Candidates

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.[8] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.[9]

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.

Newspaper endorsements

NewspaperEndorsement
The Oregonian (Portland)John Kitzhaber[10]
Willamette Week (Portland)John Kitzhaber[11]
Portland TribuneJohn Kitzhaber[12]
The Register-Guard (Eugene)John Kitzhaber[13]
Statesman Journal (Salem)Chris Dudley[14]
Mail Tribune (Medford)John Kitzhaber[15]
The Bulletin (Bend)Chris Dudley[16]
East Oregonian (Pendleton)John Kitzhaber[17]
The Lake Oswego ReviewJohn Kitzhaber[18]
The News-Review (Roseburg)John Kitzhaber[19]
The Outlook (Gresham)John Kitzhaber[20]
The Daily AstorianJohn Kitzhaber[21]
Corvallis Gazette-TimesJohn Kitzhaber[22]
News-Register (McMinnville)Chris Dudley[23]
The Sandy PostJohn Kitzhaber[24]
Beaverton Valley TimesJohn Kitzhaber[25]
West Linn TidingsJohn Kitzhaber[26]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[27]TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg[28]TossupOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[29]TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30]Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[31]Lean DOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredMargin of errorJohn
Kitzhaber (D)
Chris
Dudley (R)
Other candidate(s)Undecided
Davis & HibbittsOctober 30–31, 2010± 3.1%46%43%
Survey USAOctober 23–28, 2010± 4.2%48%41%2%8%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 25, 2010± 4.0%46%49%3%3%
HibbittsOctober 24–25, 2010± 4.4%42%45%2%12%
Elway ResearchOctober 18–19, 2010± 4.4%45%44%3%5%
Public Policy PollingOctober 16–17, 2010± 2.8%48%47%5%
Survey USAOctober 12–14, 2010± 3.9%46%45%4%5%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 10, 2010± 4.0%48%46%3%4%
Survey USASeptember 12–14, 2010± 4.2%43%49%5%3%
Riley ResearchAugust 31 – September 9, 2010± 5.0%40%39%5%16%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 8, 2010± 4.0%44%49%2%5%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 22, 2010± 4.0%44%45%3%8%
Grove InsightAugust 18–21, 2010± 4.0%44%35%4%14%
Survey USAJuly 25–27, 2010± 4.2%44%46%7%4%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 26, 2010± 4.0%44%47%5%4%
Magellan StrategiesJune 28, 2010± 3.2%40%41%10%9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall Archived June 26, 2010, at the Wayback MachineJune 21, 2010unk41%41%6%12%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 17, 2010± 4.5%45%47%4%4%
Survey USAJune 7–9, 2010± 4.2%40%47%6%7%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 20, 2010± 4.5%44%45%4%6%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 26, 2010± 4.0%41%41%4%4%
Moore InsightFebruary 20–21, 2010± 4.0%45%33%21%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 17, 2010± 4.5%42%36%7%15%

Results

Statewide results

Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after winning the Oregon governorship
Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010[32]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJohn Kitzhaber 716,525 49.29% -1.43%
RepublicanChris Dudley694,28747.76%+5.01%
ConstitutionGreg Kord20,4751.41%-2.23%
LibertarianWes Wagner19,0481.31%+0.09%
Write-ins3,2130.22%
Majority22,2381.53%-6.45%
Turnout1,453,548
Democratic holdSwing

County results

Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.[32]

CountyKitzhaberVotesDudleyVotesKordVotesWagnerVotesVariousVotesTotal
Baker26.8%1,94968.1%4,8162.6%1872.3%1660.3%217,276
Benton59.4%21,49838.0%13,7671.1%3991.2%4480.2%7736,189
Clackamas44.3%69,25053.4%83,5161.1%1,6861.0%1,5470.2%288156,287
Clatsop51.3%7,65445.5%6,7921.3%1961.6%1660.2%3714,913
Columbia44.4%8,97351.0%10,3022.4%4931.8%3680.3%5420,190
Coos41.3%10,45653.9%13,6522.4%6182.3%5830.1%3425,343
Crook26.1%2,31470.3%6,2311.7%1521.6%1440.2%218,862
Curry38.8%3,98656.0%5,7612.7%2752.4%2450.1%1410,281
Deschutes38.1%24,28959.1%37,7061.3%8611.3%8150.2%11263,783
Douglas32.5%14,07263.3%27,4382.2%9521.9%8070.2%6643,335
Gilliam32.0%30864.4%6202.6%250.7%70.2%2962
Grant21.6%74974.3%2,5762.5%861.4%500.2%83,469
Harney23.8%80072.3%2,4362.3%761.4%480.2%83,368
Hood River56.7%4,77840.7%3,4341.1%951.2%1030.2%178,427
Jackson41.7%32,36055.0%42,7151.8%1,3891.4%1,1170.1%10977,690
Jefferson32.3%2,13264.2%4,2401.7%1101.7%1100.2%106,602
Josephine34.7%11,55860.2%20,0253.1%1,0181.9%6460.1%4333,290
Klamath25.1%5,82070.4%16,2952.4%5601.8%4280.2%5523,158
Lake21.0%65874.2%2,3232.6%802.0%640.3%63,131
Lane57.0%81,73140.0%57,3941.3%1,8551.4%2,0450.3%488143,513
Lincoln53.0%10,48443.2%8,5401.8%3472.0%3890.2%3119,791
Linn34.8%14,46661.1%25,3702.2%8981.7%7080.3%11041,552
Malheur24.4%1,88470.4%5,4403.2%2462.0%1570.1%57,732
Marion44.4%44,79552.7%53,1771.5%1,5301.2%1,1920.2%242100,936
Morrow26.8%85068.8%2,1842.7%871.5%480.2%63,175
Multnomah70.6%198,15727.4%76,9150.8%2,1491.0%2,8790.3%750280,850
Polk43.4%12,89953.7%15,9661.5%4561.1%3360.2%6729,724
Sherman26.3%23870.1%6341.7%151.9%170.1%1905
Tillamook46.0%5,07250.8%5,6041.5%1631.6%1730.2%1911,031
Umatilla32.1%6,32163.8%12,5742.2%4411.6%3200.2%4719,703
Union31.6%3,36664.5%6,8692.1%2211.5%1650.3%3110,652
Wallowa28.6%1,08867.9%2,5812.1%791.1%430.2%93,800
Wasco43.2%4,02453.1%4,9381.7%1611.7%1560.3%279,306
Washington49.6%92,81148.1%89,9261.1%1,9771.1%1,9830.2%336187,033
Wheeler28.6%21666.3%5002.9%222.0%150.1%1754
Yamhill39.7%14,51957.2%20,8931.6%5701.3%4920.2%6136,535

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

Official campaign websites (Archived)