The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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| Turnout | 74.44% 2.26[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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  Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gianforte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican Greg Gianforte, who later won Montana's Governorship in 2020 when Bullock was term-limited.
In the concurrent presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%. This is the last time Democrats won any statewide election in Montana other than a U.S. Senate race. This is also the last time the winning gubernatorial and presidential candidates in Montana were of different political parties.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Bullock, incumbent governor
- Running mate: Mike Cooney, incumbent lieutenant governor[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Bill McChesney, former state representative[3]
- Running mate: Mike Anderson
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent) | 109,450 | 91.3% | |
| Democratic | Bill McChesney | 10,486 | 8.7% | |
| Total votes | 119,936 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Greg Gianforte, founder of RightNow Technologies and conservative activist[4][5][6]
- Running mate: Lesley Robinson, Phillips County Commissioner
Eliminated in primary
- Terry Nelson, planning administrator for Ravalli County, Montana[7]
- Running mate: Niki Sardot
Withdrawn
- Brad Johnson, chairman of the Montana Public Service Commission and former secretary of state of Montana[8]
- Mark Perea, businessman and nominee for the state senate in 2012[9] (did not file)
Declined
- Taylor Brown, state senator[10]
- Jeff Essman, state representative and former president of the State Senate[11]
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana (running for re-election)[4]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[4]
Endorsements
Greg Gianforte
- U.S. Senators
- Conrad Burns, former U.S. Senator[12]
- Steve Daines, U.S. Senator[13]
- State officials
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana[14]
- Rick Hill, former U.S. Representative and 2012 GOP gubernatorial nominee[12]
- Ron Marlenee, former U.S. Representative[12]
- Judy Martz, former governor of Montana[14]
- Marc Racicot, former Governor of Montana[14]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative[12]
- Stan Stephens, former Governor of Montana[14]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative[13]
- Organizations
- Montana Chamber of Commerce[15]
- Montana Farm Bureau Federation[16]
- National Federation of Independent Business[17]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Gianforte | 109,882 | 76.4% | |
| Republican | Terry Nelson | 33,987 | 23.6% | |
| Total votes | 143,869 | 100.0% | ||
Third parties
Independent
Declared
- Christopher Zarcone[9]
Libertarian
Declared
- Ted Dunlap, perennial candidate[18]
- Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate
Withdrew
- Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate[9]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 19, 2016 - C-SPAN
Endorsements
Greg Gianforte
- Governors
- Marc Racicot, Montana (former)[19]
- Judy Martz, Montana (former)[19]
- State officials
- U.S. Senators
- Steve Daines, Montana[19]
- Conrad Burns, Montana (former) (deceased)[19]
- U.S. Representatives
- Rick Hill, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)[19]
- Ron Marlenee, Montana's 2nd congressional district (former)[19]
- Denny Rehberg, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)[19]
- Ryan Zinke, Montana's at-large congressional district[19]
- Organizations
- Gun Owners of America[19]
- Montana Chamber of Commerce[19]
- Montana Farm Bureau Federation PAC[19]
- National Federation of Independent Business[19]
- National Rifle Association of America[19]
- Susan B. Anthony List[19]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[20] | Lean D | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[21] | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[22] | Lean D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[24] | Lean D | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[25] | Tossup | October 27, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock (D) | Greg Gianforte (R) | Ted Dunlap (L) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 449 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 46% | 7% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 410 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 44% | 8% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 46% | 7% | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 376 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 43% | 7% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 385 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 41% | 7% | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 39% | 7% | 1% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 10–12, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 6% |
| Montana State University Billings | October 3–10, 2016 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 32% | 3% | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Ryan Zinke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock (D) | Ryan Zinke (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | February 24–25, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3% | 44% | 44% | — | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | November 24–25, 2014 | 836 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | — | 10% |
- with Tim Fox
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock (D) | Tim Fox (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | February 24–25, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3% | 46% | 38% | — | 16% |
| Gravis Marketing | November 24–25, 2014 | 836 | ± 3% | 41% | 45% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 20–22, 2013 | 741 | ± 4% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent) | 255,933 | 50.25% | +1.35% | |
| Republican | Greg Gianforte | 236,115 | 46.35% | -0.99% | |
| Libertarian | Ted Dunlap | 17,312 | 3.40% | -0.36% | |
| Total votes | 509,360 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
References
External links
- Official campaign websites (archived)
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