2017 Queensland state election

The 2017 Queensland state election was held on 25 November 2017 to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland, the unicameral Parliament of Queensland.[1][2]

2017 Queensland state election

← 201525 November 20172020 →

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout87.52 (Decrease 2.37 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
LeaderAnnastacia PalaszczukTim NichollsRobbie Katter
PartyLaborLiberal NationalKatter's Australian
Leader since28 March 2012 (2012-03-28)6 May 2016 (2016-05-06)2 February 2015 (2015-02-02)
Leader's seatInalaClayfieldTraeger
Last election44 seats, 37.47%42 seats, 41.32%2 seats, 1.93%
Seats before41412
Seats won48393
Seat changeIncrease 7Decrease 2Increase 1
Popular vote957,890911,01962,613
Percentage35.43%33.69%2.32%
SwingDecrease 2.05Decrease 7.63Increase 0.39
TPP51.3%48.7%
TPP swingIncrease 0.2Decrease 0.2

 Fourth partyFifth party
 
LeaderSteve DicksonNo leader
PartyOne NationGreens
Leader since23 January 2017 (2017-01-23)
Leader's seatBuderim
(lost seat)
Last election0 seats, 0.92%0 seats, 8.43%
Seats before10
Seats won11
Seat changeSteadyIncrease 1
Popular vote371,193270,263
Percentage13.73%10.00%
SwingIncrease 12.81Increase 1.57

Winning margin by electorate.

Premier before election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

Elected Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

The first-term incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, won a second term in government. They were challenged by the Liberal National opposition, led by Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls and minor partiesOne Nation, Katter's Australian Party and the Greens. The 2015 election outcome had delivered a hung parliament with 44 seats to the Labor opposition, 42 seats to the one-term Liberal National government, and three to the crossbench including two to Katter's Australian Party. Just one seat short of majority government, Labor was able to form minority government with confidence and supply support from sole independent MP Peter Wellington, who otherwise retained the right to vote on conscience. During the parliamentary term, Labor MPs Billy Gordon and Rob Pyne became independent MPs, however they both indicated they would provide confidence and supply support for the government.[3][4]

Amendments to electoral laws increased the number of seats by four from 89 to 93 and changed the optional preferential voting system to compulsory full-preferential voting.[5] A 2016 referendum also replaced the state's unfixed maximum three-year terms with fixed four-year terms, but these would not apply until the 2020 election.[6][7] The day after the election, ABC election analyst Antony Green predicted that Labor would win up to 48 seats and was likely to form government in its own right.[8] By 6 December, several news agencies reported that Labor had won a majority of seats in the Parliament.[9][10][11] With the redistribution increasing the size of parliament from 89 seats to 93 seats, Labor increased its representation by a net seven seats to a total of 48 seats, an increase of four since the last election and a notional increase of one since the redistribution, allowing it to form government in its own right by two seats. The Liberal National opposition decreased their representation by a net three seats to a total of 39 seats, a decrease of two seats since the last election and a notional decrease of five since the redistribution. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party won three seats, an increase of one since the last election and a notional increase of two since the redistribution, one new independent candidate won a seat while all the incumbent independents lost their seats. One Nation won its first seat since 2009 and the Greens won a seat at a state election for the first time.[12]

Despite a small two-party swing to Labor statewide and Labor increasing its seat total, a number of regional seats notably swung to the Coalition. The LNP regained the seat of Bundaberg from Labor as well as Burdekin which was held by the LNP prior to the election but made notionally Labor due to redistribution.

On 8 December 2017, Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls conceded defeat and announced he would step down as leader of the party.[13] Later that day, Palaszczuk visited Government House and was invited to form a majority government by the Governor.[14] The Second Palaszczuk Ministry was subsequently sworn in by the Governor on 12 December 2017.[15] This marked the tenth time in the last eleven elections that Queensland Labor has won government; it won eight consecutive election victories from 1989 to 2009, and was only out of government from 1996 to 1998 when Labor lost its parliamentary majority as well as from 2012 to 2015 following the Liberal National Party's 2012 landslide win.

Background

Previous election

At the 2015 election, Labor won 44 seats, the most of all parties, but short by one of commanding a majority in the Legislative Assembly. The Liberal National Party, despite winning a record majority of 78 at the previous election, won 42 seats. Katter's Australian Party won two seats, and the independent member for Nicklin, Wellington, retained his seat.[16]

Wellington gave confidence and supply support to Labor to form government, giving it the majority of 45 out of 89 seats in parliament, and consequently the previous Liberal National government under the leadership of Campbell Newman, who lost his seat of Ashgrove, lost office after one term.

Calling of election

After Labor's retraction of endorsement for MP Rick Williams on 27 October 2017, the party's seat count dropped to 41, equalling that of the LNP. Several media sources reported that Premier Palaszczuk would call a snap election.[17][18] On 29 October Palaszczuk asked the Acting Governor Catherine Holmes to dissolve parliament and a writ was issued for a 25 November state election.[19][20]

Key dates

DateEvent
29 October 2017Writ of election issued by the Acting Governor[21]
3 November 2017Close of electoral rolls
7 November 2017Close of nominations
25 November 2017Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm
5 December 2017Cut off for the return of postal ballot papers
8 December 2017Election results declared and writ returned
12 December 2017Second Palaszczuk Ministry sworn in
13 February 201856th Parliament convened

Electoral redistribution

A redistribution of electoral boundaries occurred earlier in 2017.

The electorates of Albert, Ashgrove, Beaudesert, Brisbane Central, Cleveland, Dalrymple, Indooroopilly, Kallangur, Mount Coot-tha, Mount Isa, Sunnybank, and Yeerongpilly were abolished.

The electorates of Bancroft, Bonney, Cooper, Hill, Jordan, Kurwongbah, Macalister, Maiwar, McConnel, Miller, Ninderry, Oodgeroo, Scenic Rim, Theodore, Toohey, and Traeger were created.

The Legislative Assembly was expanded from 89 to 93 members. Indooroopilly was abolished west of Brisbane, while Bancroft was created in the corridor north of Brisbane, Bonney created on the Gold Coast, Jordan created in the corridor west of Brisbane, Macalister created in the corridor south of Brisbane, and Ninderry created on the Sunshine Coast. Albert was renamed Theodore, Ashgrove was renamed Cooper, Beaudesert was renamed Scenic Rim, Brisbane Central was renamed McConnel, Cleveland was renamed Oodgeroo, Dalrymple was renamed Hill, Kallangur was renamed Kurwongbah, Mount Coot-tha was renamed Maiwar, Mount Isa was renamed Traeger, Sunnybank was renamed Toohey, and Yeerongpilly was renamed Miller. Burdekin, Mansfield, and Mount Ommaney became notionally Labor-held, while Pumicestone became notionally Liberal National-held.

The changes resulted in 48 notionally Labor-held seats, 2 notionally Katter's Australian-held seats, 42 notionally Liberal National-held seats, and 1 notionally Independent-held seat.

Results

Winning party by electorate.
Results of the 2017 Queensland state election, Legislative Assembly[22][11]
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Labor957,89035.43-2.0548+4
Liberal National911,01933.69-7.6339+3
One Nation371,19313.73+12.811+1
Greens270,26310.00+1.571+1
Katter's Australian62,6132.32+0.393+1
Consumer Rights7,1670.27+0.270±0
Independents123,7964.58+0.951±0
Total2,703,941100.0093
Valid votes2,703,94195.66
Invalid/blank votes122,6724.34+2.23
Total votes2,826,613100.00
Registered voters/turnout3,229,53687.52-2.37

Independent: Sandy Bolton (Noosa)

Popular vote
Labor
35.43%
LNP
33.69%
One Nation
13.73%
Greens
10.00%
Katter's
2.32%
Independents
4.58%
Other
0.12%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
51.2%
LNP
48.8%
Seats summary
Labor
51.61%
LNP
41.94%
Katter's
3.23%
One Nation
1.08%
Greens
1.08%
Independents
1.08%

Seats changing hands

Seat2017 RedistributionSwing2017 Election[23]
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Aspley Liberal NationalTracy Davis3.20-4.371.17Bart MellishLabor 
BundabergLaborLeanne Donaldson0.50-4.704.20David BattLiberal National 
BurdekinLabornotional1.40-2.200.80Dale LastLiberal National 
Gaven Liberal NationalSid Cramp2.80-3.510.71Meaghan ScanlonLabor 
Hinchinbrook Liberal NationalAndrew Cripps3.40-10.957.55Nick DamettoKatter's Australian
Maiwar Liberal NationalScott Emerson3.00-4.631.63Michael BerkmanGreens
Mirani LaborJim Pearce3.80-8.624.82Stephen AndrewOne Nation 
Nicklin IndependentPeter Wellington4.10-19.385.28Marty HuntLiberal National 
Noosa Liberal NationalGlen Elmes6.60-18.1311.53Sandy BoltonIndependent 
Redlands Liberal NationalMatt McEachan1.20-4.263.06Kim RichardsLabor 
  • Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • The Labor Party also retained the seat of Cairns, where the sitting Labor member had resigned and contested the election as an Independent, and the seat of Cook, where the sitting Labor member was expelled and sat as an Independent.
  • The Liberal National Party also retained the seat of Buderim, where the sitting Liberal National member had resigned and contested the election as a member of the One Nation Party, and the seat of Pumicestone, which had a notional Liberal National margin.

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
TownsvilleScott StewartALP0.38%
GavenMeaghan ScanlonALP0.71%
MundingburraCoralee O'RourkeALP1.13%
AspleyBart MellishALP1.17%
MansfieldCorrine McMillanALP1.62%
Barron RiverCraig CrawfordALP1.86%
MaryboroughBruce SaundersALP2.46% v ONP
RedlandsKim RichardsALP3.06%
KeppelBrittany LaugaALP3.14% v ONP
CairnsMichael HealyALP3.39%
South BrisbaneJackie TradALP3.55% v GRN
SpringwoodMick de BrenniALP3.59%
ThuringowaAaron HarperALP4.15% v ONP
Ferny GroveMark FurnerALP4.63%
RedcliffeYvette D'AthALP4.86%
RockhamptonBarry O'RourkeALP5.19% v ONP
Mount OmmaneyJess PughALP5.76%
CookCynthia LuiALP5.84% v ONP
Fairly Safe
Pine RiversNikki BoydALP6.19%
BancroftChris WhitingALP6.21%
LoganLinus PowerALP6.83% v ONP
KurwongbahShane KingALP6.99%
MacalisterMelissa McMahonALP7.45%
McConnelGrace GraceALP7.86%
CapalabaDon BrownALP7.86%
MillerMark BaileyALP8.18%
MackayJulieanne GilbertALP8.34%
Ipswich WestJim MaddenALP8.72 v ONP
MorayfieldMark RyanALP8.72% v ONP
MurrumbaSteven MilesALP9.52%
JordanCharis MullenALP9.91% v ONP
StrettonDuncan PeggALP9.89%
Safe
TooheyPeter RussoALP10.01%
GreenslopesJoe KellyALP10.13%
CooperKate JonesALP10.65%
WaterfordShannon FentimanALP10.75% v ONP
BulimbaDi FarmerALP10.78%
IpswichJennifer HowardALP10.89% v ONP
MulgraveCurtis PittALP10.92%
LyttonJoan PeaseALP12.02%
StaffordAnthony LynhamALP12.10%
SandgateStirling HinchliffeALP13.48%
NudgeeLeanne LinardALP14.32%
AlgesterLeeanne EnochALP14.43%
Very Safe
GladstoneGlenn ButcherALP20.70% v ONP
BundambaLance McCallumALP21.55%
InalaAnnastacia PalaszczukALP26.09%
WoodridgeCameron DickALP26.37%
Non-Government seats
Marginal
WhitsundayJason CostiganLNP0.68%
BurdekinDale LastLNP0.80%
PumicestoneSimone WilsonLNP0.84%
BonneySam O'ConnorLNP2.18%
ClayfieldTim NichollsLNP2.41%
ChatsworthSteve MinnikinLNP2.90%
CurrumbinJann StuckeyLNP3.31%
CaloundraMark McArdleLNP3.41%
Glass HouseAndrew PowellLNP3.43%
CoomeraMichael CrandonLNP3.47%
TheodoreMark BoothmanLNP3.72%
LockyerJim McDonaldLNP4.07% v ONP
BundabergDavid BattLNP4.20%
BurleighMichael HartLNP4.85%
EvertonTim ManderLNP4.94%
MoggillChristian RowanLNP5.03%
NicklinMarty HuntLNP5.28%
Toowoomba NorthTrevor WattsLNP5.72%
Fairly Safe
CallideColin BoyceLNP6.11% v ONP
Mermaid BeachRay StevensLNP6.26%
SouthportRob MolhoekLNP7.24%
OodgerooMark RobinsonLNP7.24%
NinderryDan PurdieLNP8.38%
MaroochydoreFiona SimpsonLNP8.52%
GympieTony PerrettLNP8.68% v ONP
Hervey BayTed SorensenLNP9.10%
WarregoAnn LeahyLNP9.46% v KAP
MudgeerabaRos BatesLNP9.85%
Toowoomba SouthDavid JanetzkiLNP9.98%
Safe
BurnettStephen BennettLNP10.65%
CondaminePat WeirLNP10.71% v ONP
BuderimBrent MickelbergLNP11.41%
Southern DownsJames ListerLNP13.03% v ONP
KawanaJarrod BleijieLNP13.07%
Scenic RimJon KrauseLNP13.12% v ONP
NanangoDeb FrecklingtonLNP13.36% v ONP
GregoryLachlan MillarLNP13.94% v ONP
BroadwaterDavid CrisafulliLNP17.98
Surfers ParadiseJohn-Paul LangbroekLNP19.78
Crossbench seats
MaiwarMichael BerkmanGRN1.63% v LNP
MiraniStephen AndrewONP4.82% v ALP
HinchinbrookNick DamettoKAP7.55% v LNP
NoosaSandy BoltonIND11.53% v LNP
HillShane KnuthKAP19.75% v ALP
TraegerRobbie KatterKAP28.49% v ALP

Subsequent changes

Milestones

This election resulted in a number of historical milestones being achieved for the representation in the Queensland Parliament. These include:

Political donations

Prior to the election, the Shooting Industry Foundation of Australia used $550,000 to launch an advertising campaign, named Flick'em, in an effort to urge voters to put both major parties last in ballot paper preferences. This campaign boosted votes for Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the Katter's Australian Party and achieved lowest major party votes in QLD history.[28]

The Firearm Owners United which is a new gun rights group which also in 2017 made its first financial contribution to a campaign during the Queensland state election, donating $1,000 to Pauline Hanson's One Nation party and Katter's Australian Party.[29]

Date

Following the successful 2016 referendum to introduce four-year fixed-term elections, this was the last Queensland election where the date of the election could be chosen at the serving Premier's discretion.[30]

Section 84 of the Electoral Act 1992 stated that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs including the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is to be closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.[31]

The Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015,[32] which amended the Constitution of Queensland to provide for state elections on the fourth Saturday in October every four years, did not come into effect until the 2020 election. Therefore, this was the last election to which section 2 of the Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 applied before its repeal.[33] It provided that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly expires.[34]

The day set for the return of writs for the 2015 election was 16 February 2015, but the deadline appointed in the writ for its return was Wednesday 11 March 2015.[6][35] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election no more than four days after the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires.[31]: §78(2)  The last possible day for the next election was therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 11 March 2018, namely 5 May 2018.[6][30]

Palaszczuk faced constant media questions during 2017 about whether she would call an early election.[30][36] She stated that it was her intention to hold it in 2018, and that it would take something "extraordinary" for it to be held in 2017. Following Agriculture Minister Bill Byrne's resignation on health grounds and the disendorsement of Pumicestone MP Rick Williams,[37] on Sunday 29 October 2017, she announced the election would be held on 25 November 2017.[38] Pauline Hanson described this as a "cowardly" move, given that she was overseas on a federal parliamentary trip and would be delayed in starting her One Nation party's campaign.[38]

As the election was held in 2017, this meant that the fixed date for the next state election was on 31 October 2020.[6] Had the election instead been held in 2018, the next fixed election date would have been 30 October 2021.[6]

Contesting parties

The ALP's Queensland branch and the LNP are two of six parties registered with the Electoral Commission of Queensland by October 2017, alongside the Queensland Greens, the Queensland division of Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Katter's Australian Party, and Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls.[39] Queensland's two-party dominance was threatened by the resurgence of One Nation, given former LNP MP Steve Dickson's defection to become One Nation's state leader in January 2017 and the high-profile candidacy of recently disqualified Senator Malcolm Roberts,[40] and the record strength of the Greens in several urban seats bolstered by Brisbane's first Green councillor Jonathan Sriranganathan (then known as Sri) being elected in 2016.[41]

In January 2017, One Nation disendorsed its Bundamba candidate Shan Ju Lin after her anti-gay social media post. Lin accused James Ashby of deciding on Hanson's behalf that Lin should be disendorsed.[42] In December 2016, Andy Semple withdrew as a candidate for Currumbin, after the party told him to delete an LGBT joke on Twitter.[43]

One Nation dumped a further 6 candidates.[44]

Preferences

The ALP and The Greens pledged to place One Nation candidates last on their respective party How-To-Vote cards. Both parties also placed each other ahead of the LNP on their cards. Katter's Australia Party exchanged preferences with One Nation in the seats they both contested. The LNP placed Greens candidates below ALP candidates, and placed One Nation candidates ahead of the ALP in 52 of the 61 seats One Nation was contesting, the exceptions being in Buderim, Logan, Mudgeeraba, Nicklin, Coomera, Scenic Rim, Stretton, Toohey and Thuringowa. One Nation, with a few notable exceptions, placed all ALP and LNP sitting MPs last. One Nation also made an agreement with Katter's Australia Party, not to challenge the two sitting KAP MPs in their respective seats.

Retiring MPs

The following Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly have announced their intention to not contest the 2017 state election:

Labor

Liberal National Party

Independent

Opinion polling

Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.

Primary vote opinion polling graph

Two-party preferred opinion polling graph

Polling

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary voteTPP vote
ALPLNPGreenONOtherALPLNP
25 November 2017Galaxy (Exit Poll)[52]37%35%9%13%6%52%48%
21–24 November 2017Newspoll[53]36%34%10%13%7%52.5%47.5%
24 November 2017Galaxy[54]37%35%9%12%7%52%48%
20 November 2017ReachTEL[55]34%30%10%17%9%51%49%
13 November 2017ReachTEL[56]30.4%30.8%8.1%16.4%48%52%
1–2 November 2017Galaxy[57]35%32%9%18%6%52%48%
17 October 2017Newspoll[58]37%34%8%16%5%52%48%
28 September 2017ReachTEL[59]32.1%30.6%7.5%18.1%7.7%48%52%
July–Sep 2017Newspoll[60]37%34%8%15%6%53%47%
2–3 August 2017Galaxy[61]35%36%7%15%7%51%49%
June 2017ReachTEL[62]31.9%35.3%9.4%17%6.4%49%51%
26–27 April 2017Galaxy[63]36%34%7%17%6%52%48%
February 2017ReachTEL[64]30.9%33.2%7%21.3%7.6%47%53%
February 2017Galaxy[64]31%33%8%23%5%51%49%
November 2016Galaxy[65]35%37%8%16%4%51%49%
October 2016Roy Morgan[66]35.5%33.5%12%10.5%8.5%52%48%
August 2016Roy Morgan[67]36.5%38.5%9.5%8.5%7%50%50%
May–June 2016Newspoll[68]38%40%51%49%
May 2016Morgan[69]35.5%40.5%10.5%13.5%50%50%
10–11 May 2016Galaxy[70]36%44%9%11%48%52%
26 April 2016ReachTEL[71]36.9%42.8%10.8%9.5%48%52%
March 2016Roy Morgan[72]37.5%40%12.5%9.5%52%48%
10–11 February 2016Galaxy[73]37%43%9%11%48%52%
Jan–Feb 2016Roy Morgan[74]36.5%45.5%9%9%48%52%
December 2015Newspoll[75]41%39%8%12%52%48%
17–18 November 2015Galaxy[73]42%37%9%12%49%51%
16 October 2015Morgan[76]34.5%42%11.5%12%49%51%
Sep 2015Newspoll[77]41%38%9%12%53%47%
28–31 Aug 2015Morgan[78]38.5%41.5%12%8%52%48%
19–20 Aug 2015Galaxy[79]40%39%10%11%52%48%
19–21 Jun 2015Morgan[80]39.5%42%9.5%9%51.5%48.5%
22–24 May 2015Morgan[81]34%44%11%11%48%52%
22 May 2015ReachTEL[82]37.6%45.6%9.4%7.4%48%52%
19–20 May 2015Galaxy[83]40%39%9%12%52%47%
10–12 Apr 2015Morgan[84]40%40.5%9.5%10%52.5%47.5%
8–9 Apr 2015Galaxy[83]39%42%7%12%50%50%
31 January 2015 election37.5%41.3%8.4%0.9%12.8%51.1%48.9%
26–29 Jan 2015Newspoll[85]37%41%6%14%48%52%
9–26 Jan 2015Essential[86]38%39%7%16%50%50%
16–18 Jan 2015Morgan[87]37%39.5%10%13.5%49.5%50.5%

Leadership polling

Better Premier/approval polling
DateFirmBetter PremierPalaszczukNicholls
PalaszczukNichollsUndecidedSatisfiedDissatisfiedUndecidedSatisfiedDissatisfiedUndecided
4 Nov 2017Galaxy[88]43%29%28%41%42%17%28%40%32%
2-3 Aug 2017Galaxy[89]Not asked39%44%17%Not asked
15 May 2016Galaxy[90]44%29%27%Not asked

Electoral district polling

DateFirmElectorateVoting intention2cp votePoll result
LNPALPGRNKAPONPOTHALPLNPONP
18 Nov 2017Newspoll[91]Bundaberg37%33%9%21%5%47%53%LNP gain
18 Nov 2017Newspoll[92]Gaven50%43%7%49%51%LNP hold
18 Nov 2017Newspoll[93]Ipswich West17%45%9%29%57%43%Labor hold
18 Nov 2017Newspoll[94]Mansfield37%40%7%16%52%48%Labor hold
18 Nov 2017Newspoll[95]Thuringowa21%29%6%12%28%4%46%54%One Nation gain
18 Nov 2017Newspoll[96]Whitsunday31%32%7%7%19%4%51%49%Labor gain
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[97]Bonney45%39%9%50%50%Tied
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[98]Cairns32%37%7%13%11%54%46%Labor hold
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[99]Glass House33%27%16%22%50%50%Tied
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[100]Hervey Bay38%31%4%22%45%55%LNP hold
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[101]Logan20%35%7%33%52%48%Labor hold
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[102]Mundingburra30%29%6%12%20%48%52%LNP gain
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[103]Rockhampton23%33%9%21%14%58%42%Labor hold
11 Nov 2017Galaxy[104]South Brisbane29%38%29%

See also

References

External links