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2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky

(Redirected from 2020 Kentucky Republican presidential primary)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Kentucky has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky
← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout59.7% Increase
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote80
Popular vote1,326,646772,474
Percentage62.09%36.15%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Trump won Kentucky by a 25.9% margin in this election, down from his 29.8% margin in 2016. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. Kentucky has not supported a Democratic nominee since it narrowly supported fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996. Trump's overhaul of Obama-era coal emissions standards helped him win coal-industry households,[4] once again sweeping the historically-Democratic Eastern Kentucky counties. Trump also carried 83% of White evangelical/born-again Christians, per exit polls by the Associated Press.[5]

In addition to Trump's victory in the Commonwealth, Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Elliott County since the county was founded in 1869,[6] as well as only the second Democrat to ever lose Elliott County in a presidential election, preceded only by Hillary Clinton four years earlier. This also marks the second consecutive election in which no county in the Eastern Kentucky Coalfield voted Democratic. Furthermore, this is the first time since 1948 that Fayette County, the second-most populous county in the state and home to the city of Lexington, voted to the left of Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state and home to the city of Louisville, in a presidential election.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for May 19, 2020. On March 16, they were moved to June 23 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary. The state has 46 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[8]

Democratic primary

2020 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary[9]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[10]
Joe Biden365,28467.9152
Uncommitted58,36410.852
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)65,05512.09
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)15,3002.84
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)9,1271.70
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)7,2671.35
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)5,8591.09
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)5,2960.98
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)2,6560.49
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)2,5140.47
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)1,1830.22
Total537,905100%54

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[11]Safe RSeptember 10, 2020
Inside Elections[12]Safe RSeptember 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]Safe RJuly 14, 2020
Politico[14]Safe RSeptember 8, 2020
RCP[15]Safe RAugust 3, 2020
Niskanen[16]Safe RJuly 26, 2020
CNN[17]Safe RAugust 3, 2020
The Economist[18]Safe RSeptember 2, 2020
CBS News[19]Likely RAugust 16, 2020
270towin[20]Safe RAugust 2, 2020
ABC News[21]Safe RJuly 31, 2020
NPR[22]Likely RAugust 3, 2020
NBC News[23]Safe RAugust 6, 2020
538[24]Safe RSeptember 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other/
Undecided
[a]		Margin
270 to WinOctober 17–20, 2020November 3, 202040.0%57.0%3.0%Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202039.9%55.6%4.5%Trump +15.7
Average40.0%56.3%3.7%Trump +16.4

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,009 (LV)± 3%59%[c]40%-––
Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback MachineOct 23 – Nov 1, 2020383 (LV)± 7.4%55%42%4%––
Bluegrass Community & Technical College Archived October 30, 2020, at the Wayback MachineOct 12–28, 2020250 (RV)–52%39%––9%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20203,621 (LV)–56%42%–––
Mason-DixonOct 12–15, 2020625 (LV)± 4%56%39%-1%4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,479 (LV)–59%39%-–1%
Data for Progress (D)Sep 14–19, 2020807 (LV)± 3.5%55%[d]35%1%1%[e]8%
56%[f]38%-–6%
Quinnipiac UniversitySep 10–14, 20201,164 (LV)± 2.9%58%38%-1%[g]4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,231 (LV)–60%38%-–2%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 7, 2020, at the Wayback MachineJul 30 – Aug 3, 2020909 (RV)± 3.3%50%41%-4%[h]5%
Morning ConsultJul 24 – Aug 2, 2020793 (LV)± 3.0%59%35%-2%[i]4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,709 (LV)–62%37%-–1%
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund Archived August 9, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A]Jul 25–29, 20203,020 (RV)± 2.0%52%45%-––
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[B]Jul 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%60%34%-–6%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath Archived July 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[C]Jul 7–12, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%-––
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020596 (LV)–60%38%-–2%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath Archived July 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[C]Jun 2020– (V)[j]–54%39%-––
Civiqs/Data for ProgressJun 13–15, 2020898 (RV)± 3.8%57%37%-5%[k]1%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath Archived July 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[C]May 2020– (V)[j]–57%36%-––
RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits[D]May 21–24, 2020500 (RV)± 4.5%53%36%-6%[l]5%
Public Policy PollingMay 14–15, 20201,104 (V)–55%39%-5%[k]2%
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund Archived August 9, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[E]Apr 7–12, 2020[m]4,000 (RV)–55%34%-––
Fabrizio Ward/AARPJul 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%53%41%-–4%
Gravis MarketingJun 11–12, 2019741 (LV)± 3.6%57%37%-–6%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		Undecided
Gravis MarketingJun 11–12, 2019741 (LV)± 3.6%60%28%12%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		Undecided
Gravis MarketingJun 11–12, 2019741 (LV)± 3.6%57%35%8%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Undecided
Gravis MarketingJun 11–12, 2019741 (LV)± 3.6%60%28%12%
Zogby AnalyticsAug 17–23, 2017402 (LV)± 4.9%47%41%13%

Results

Statewide results

2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky[25]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,326,646 62.09% -0.43%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris		772,47436.15%+3.47%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		26,2341.23%-1.56%
IndependentKanye West
Michelle Tidball		6,4830.30%N/A
IndependentBrock Pierce
Karla Ballard		3,5990.17%N/A
GreenHowie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)		7160.03%N/A
American SolidarityBrian T. Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)		4080.02%N/A
Socialism and LiberationGloria La Riva (write-in)
Sunil Freeman (write-in)		98<0.01%N/A
IndependentMark Charles (write-in)
Adriane Wallace (write-in)		43<0.01%N/A
IndependentJade Simmons (write-in)
Claudeliah Roze (write-in)		29<0.01%N/A
IndependentTom Hoefling (write-in)
Andy Prior (write-in)		20<0.01%N/A
IndependentShawn Howard (write-in)
Alyssa Howard (write-in)		9<0.01%N/A
IndependentPresident Boddie (write-in)
Eric Stoneham (write-in)		7<0.01%N/A
IndependentKasey Wells (write-in)
Rachel Wells (write-in)		1<0.01%N/A
IndependentTimothy Stevens (write-in)
Susan Fletcher (write-in)		1<0.01%N/A
IndependentMary Simmons (write-in)
Sherri Dow (write-in)		00.00%N/A
Total votes2,136,768 100%

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair7,27682.98%1,39215.88%1001.14%5,88467.10%8,768
Allen7,58781.02%1,64217.54%1351.44%5,94563.48%9,364
Anderson9,66172.89%3,34825.26%2451.85%6,31347.63%13,254
Ballard3,35679.43%82519.53%441.04%2,53159.90%4,225
Barren14,65473.04%5,12725.55%2831.41%9,52747.49%20,064
Bath3,98670.84%1,57327.95%681.21%2,41342.89%5,627
Bell8,14081.04%1,78917.81%1151.15%6,35163.23%10,044
Boone44,81466.89%20,90131.20%1,2831.91%23,91335.69%66,998
Bourbon6,19064.16%3,29634.16%1621.68%2,89430.00%9,648
Boyd14,29565.72%7,08332.56%3731.72%7,21233.16%21,751
Boyle8,87261.28%5,29836.59%3082.13%3,57424.69%14,478
Bracken3,39880.03%80018.84%481.13%2,59861.19%4,246
Breathitt4,26575.34%1,30122.98%951.68%2,96452.36%5,661
Breckinridge7,70175.49%2,35023.04%1501.47%5,35152.45%10,201
Bullitt30,70873.12%10,55225.13%7381.75%20,15647.99%41,998
Butler4,96080.98%1,07917.62%861.40%3,88163.36%6,125
Caldwell4,90676.25%1,43322.27%951.48%3,47353.98%6,434
Calloway11,35265.03%5,79733.21%3081.76%5,55531.82%17,457
Campbell28,48258.27%19,37439.64%1,0222.09%9,10818.63%48,878
Carlisle2,15981.84%46317.55%160.61%1,69664.29%2,638
Carroll2,95471.42%1,11626.98%661.60%1,83844.44%4,136
Carter8,77575.74%2,64222.80%1691.46%6,13352.94%11,586
Casey6,17986.17%91812.80%741.03%5,26173.37%7,171
Christian15,08063.19%8,29634.77%4872.04%6,78428.42%23,863
Clark11,81165.11%6,00433.10%3241.79%5,80732.01%18,139
Clay6,67787.96%83110.95%831.09%5,84677.01%7,591
Clinton4,28086.78%60312.23%490.99%3,67774.55%4,932
Crittenden3,45181.35%73117.23%601.42%2,72064.12%4,242
Cumberland2,76983.68%50815.35%320.97%2,26168.33%3,309
Daviess31,02562.95%17,28635.07%9761.98%13,73927.88%49,287
Edmonson4,82878.73%1,22720.01%771.26%3,60158.72%6,132
Elliott2,24674.99%71223.77%371.24%1,53451.22%2,995
Estill5,10077.98%1,35520.72%851.30%3,74557.26%6,540
Fayette58,86038.49%90,60059.25%3,4522.26%-31,740-20.76%152,912
Fleming5,53478.30%1,47420.85%600.85%4,06057.45%7,068
Floyd12,25074.91%3,88423.75%2191.34%8,36651.16%16,353
Franklin12,90049.48%12,65248.53%5201.99%2480.95%26,072
Fulton1,60666.20%79432.73%261.07%81233.47%2,426
Gallatin2,95576.77%82221.36%721.87%2,13355.41%3,849
Garrard6,75477.58%1,83021.02%1221.40%4,92456.56%8,706
Grant8,72578.55%2,20519.85%1781.60%6,52058.70%11,108
Graves13,20677.60%3,56020.92%2531.48%9,64656.68%17,019
Grayson9,45378.87%2,40020.03%1321.10%7,05358.84%11,985
Green4,83883.24%92015.83%540.93%3,91867.41%5,812
Greenup13,06471.88%4,87326.81%2391.31%8,19145.07%18,176
Hancock3,14568.56%1,35129.45%911.99%1,79439.11%4,587
Hardin29,83260.96%18,10136.99%1,0082.05%11,73123.97%48,941
Harlan9,36785.38%1,49413.62%1101.00%7,87371.76%10,971
Harrison6,33471.50%2,40027.09%1251.41%3,93444.41%8,859
Hart6,34575.81%1,90822.80%1171.39%4,43753.01%8,370
Henderson12,73061.51%7,63936.91%3281.58%5,09124.60%20,697
Henry5,84372.05%2,14226.41%1251.54%3,70145.64%8,110
Hickman1,71477.94%45820.83%271.23%1,25657.11%2,199
Hopkins15,75773.25%5,43925.28%3161.47%10,31847.97%21,512
Jackson5,45389.20%6059.90%550.90%4,84879.30%6,113
Jefferson150,64638.84%228,35858.87%8,8662.29%-77,712-20.03%387,870
Jessamine17,09665.05%8,56732.60%6172.35%8,52932.45%26,280
Johnson8,45082.91%1,60815.78%1341.31%6,84267.13%10,192
Kenton48,12958.55%32,27139.26%1,7982.19%15,85819.29%82,198
Knott4,78076.46%1,41222.58%600.96%3,36853.88%6,252
Knox11,01282.97%2,11415.93%1471.10%8,89867.04%13,273
LaRue5,68577.87%1,50420.60%1121.53%4,18157.27%7,301
Laurel23,23782.66%4,47515.92%3991.42%18,76266.74%28,111
Lawrence5,63380.99%1,23817.80%841.21%4,39563.19%6,955
Lee2,27381.15%48117.17%471.68%1,79263.98%2,801
Leslie4,32189.78%4469.27%460.95%3,87580.51%4,813
Letcher7,22679.10%1,79919.69%1101.21%5,42759.41%9,135
Lewis4,98684.75%82313.99%741.26%4,16370.76%5,883
Lincoln8,48977.78%2,25420.65%1711.57%7,23557.13%10,914
Livingston4,01080.14%93918.76%551.10%3,07161.38%5,004
Logan9,06773.42%3,09425.05%1891.53%5,97348.37%12,350
Lyon3,10073.32%1,09225.83%360.85%2,00847.49%4,228
McCracken21,82065.04%11,19533.37%5341.59%10,62531.67%33,549
McCreary5,66487.98%72511.26%490.76%4,93976.72%6,438
McLean3,63375.97%1,07422.46%751.57%2,55953.51%4,782
Madison27,35662.23%15,58135.45%1,0202.32%11,77526.78%43,957
Magoffin4,17476.63%1,21422.29%591.08%2,96054.34%5,447
Marion6,11368.47%2,72230.49%931.04%3,39137.98%8,928
Marshall13,29775.54%4,07123.13%2351.33%9,22652.41%17,603
Martin3,49688.82%40310.24%370.94%3,09378.71%3,936
Mason5,47768.82%2,36229.68%1191.50%3,11539.14%7,958
Meade10,18572.17%3,63225.74%2962.09%6,55346.43%14,113
Menifee2,31174.50%75024.18%411.32%1,56150.32%3,102
Mercer8,50672.48%3,03325.85%1961.67%5,47346.63%11,735
Metcalfe3,95978.99%97519.45%781.56%2,98459.54%5,012
Monroe4,62886.83%65712.33%450.84%3,97174.50%5,330
Montgomery8,99370.03%3,63028.27%2191.70%5,36341.76%12,842
Morgan4,30177.58%1,17521.19%681.23%3,12656.39%5,544
Muhlenberg10,49773.74%3,54524.90%1931.36%6,95248.84%14,235
Nelson15,70367.52%7,18830.91%3651.57%8,51536.61%23,256
Nicholas2,40870.91%95528.12%330.97%1,45342.79%3,396
Ohio8,58277.11%2,40421.60%1431.29%6,17855.51%11,129
Oldham22,65459.65%14,50538.20%8172.15%8,14921.45%37,976
Owen4,29278.64%1,09820.12%681.24%3,19458.52%5,458
Owsley1,67188.13%21611.39%90.48%1,45576.74%1,896
Pendleton5,51579.64%1,32219.09%881.27%4,19360.55%6,925
Perry8,12976.50%2,35622.17%1411.33%5,77354.33%10,626
Pike20,28479.87%4,86619.16%2450.97%15,41860.71%25,395
Powell4,04173.41%1,36724.83%971.76%2,67448.58%5,505
Pulaski25,44280.62%5,66617.95%4491.43%19,77662.67%31,557
Robertson88477.14%25322.08%90.78%63155.06%1,146
Rockcastle6,57784.49%1,13414.57%730.94%5,44369.92%7,784
Rowan5,99459.55%3,88038.55%1911.90%2,11421.00%10,065
Russell7,51983.96%1,33114.86%1051.18%6,18869.10%8,955
Scott17,76761.33%10,56736.48%6352.19%7,20024.85%28,969
Shelby15,05563.93%8,07734.30%4181.77%6,97829.63%23,550
Simpson5,88867.43%2,68130.70%1631.87%3,20736.73%8,732
Spencer8,73776.42%2,53022.13%1661.45%6,20754.29%11,433
Taylor9,37674.91%2,96323.67%1781.42%6,41351.24%12,517
Todd4,06275.74%1,20522.47%961.79%2,85753.27%5,363
Trigg5,48774.39%1,79124.28%981.33%3,69650.11%7,376
Trimble3,22774.70%1,01223.43%811.87%2,21551.27%4,320
Union4,96575.49%1,52923.25%831.26%3,43652.24%6,577
Warren31,79157.38%22,47940.58%1,1312.04%9,31216.80%55,401
Washington4,48272.00%1,64426.41%991.59%3,83845.59%6,225
Wayne7,43080.41%1,70018.40%1101.19%5,73062.01%9,240
Webster4,50675.19%1,41223.56%751.25%3,09451.63%5,993
Whitley12,56781.84%2,55216.62%2371.54%10,01565.22%15,356
Wolfe2,09770.39%83928.16%431.45%1,25842.23%2,979
Woodford8,36254.97%6,53042.93%3192.10%1,83212.04%15,211
Totals1,326,64662.05%772,47436.13%38,8891.82%554,17225.92%2,138,009

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[26]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st73.1%25.5%James Comer
2nd67.6%30.6%Brett Guthrie
3rd38.1%60.0%John Yarmuth
4th64.8%33.4%Thomas Massie
5th80.2%18.6%Hal Rogers
6th53.6%44.5%Andy Barr

Analysis

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Kentucky by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[27][28]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote36.1562.09100
Ideology
Liberals831617
Moderates494836
Conservatives99047
Party
Democrats841530
Republicans49546
Independents395524
Gender
Men366046
Women366354
Race/ethnicity
White336688
Black71257
Latino––2
Asian––1
Other––2
Age
18–24 years old39557
25–29 years old62326
30–39 years old445315
40–49 years old356415
50–64 years old277131
65 and older366326
Sexual orientation
LGBT––7
Not LGBT316793
Education
High school or less386128
Some college education326633
Associate degree257311
Bachelor's degree445318
Postgraduate degree455210
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality881011
Coronavirus––13
Economy59438
Crime and safety––10
Health care––19
Region
Eastern Kentucky207820
Bluegrass Country435519
N. Kentucky/Louisville suburbs336517
Jefferson County593918
Western Kentucky296926
Area type
Urban534631
Suburban326627
Rural267242
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago89054
Worse than four years ago752015
About the same594030

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

References

Further reading

External links

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