2022 United States Senate election in Alaska

The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection[1] to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.

2022 United States Senate election in Alaska

← 2016November 8, 20222028 →
 
CandidateLisa MurkowskiKelly TshibakaPat Chesbro
PartyRepublicanRepublicanDemocratic
First round113,495
43.37%
111,480
42.60%
27,145
10.37%
Final round136,330
53.70%
117,534
46.30%
Eliminated

Murkowski:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tshibaka:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

After the voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 Alaska elections, this was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters will utilize ranked-choice voting.[3]

Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, Frank Murkowski, who served as a U.S. senator from Alaska from 1981 until he was elected governor of Alaska. Murkowski has won three Senate elections since then, including a notable write-in campaign in the 2010 election, although she has never won an election with an outright majority of the vote.[4][5][6]

Murkowski was the only Republican senator running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict former president Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle.[7][8] Following Murkowski's opposition to some of Trump's initiatives and her vote to convict him, Trump endorsed Tshibaka and campaigned against Murkowski.[9][10] The Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka; Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski.[11]

In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka but remained on the ballot.[12] Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes, but because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, the instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters.[13] Since Murkowski won her three previous elections to the U.S. Senate (2004, 2010, and 2016) without a majority of the vote, this election became the fourth election in which she did not receive a majority of the vote in the first round (the other three elections did not employ ranked choice voting with multiple rounds). Murkowski thus holds the record for the most number of elections won by a U.S. Senator without winning a majority of the votes.

Primary election

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

  • Buzz Kelley, retired mechanic[16] (remained on ballot; endorsed Tshibaka)[a][17]

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Declined

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Libertarian Party

Eliminated in primary

  • Sean Thorne, veteran[32]

Alaskan Independence Party

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Independents

Eliminated in primary

  • Dave Darden, perennial candidate[33]
  • Shoshana Gungurstein, businesswoman
  • Sid Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[33]
  • Jeremy Keller, television personality[18]
  • Huhnkie Lee, attorney, army veteran and Republican candidate for Alaska Senate in 2020[19]

Declined

Results

Primary election results by state house district
Primary election results[16][36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanLisa Murkowski (incumbent) 85,794 45.05%
RepublicanKelly Tshibaka 73,414 38.55%
DemocraticPatricia Chesbro 12,989 6.82%
RepublicanBuzz Kelley 4,055 2.13%
RepublicanPat Nolin2,0041.05%
DemocraticEdgar Blatchford1,9811.04%
DemocraticIvan R. Taylor1,8971.00%
RepublicanSam Merrill1,5290.80%
LibertarianSean Thorne1,3990.73%
IndependentShoshana Gungurstein8530.45%
IndependenceJoe Stephens8050.42%
RepublicanJohn Schiess7340.39%
IndependenceDustin Darden6490.34%
RepublicanKendall L. Shorkey6270.33%
RepublicanKarl Speights6130.32%
IndependentJeremy Keller4050.21%
IndependentSid Hill2740.14%
IndependentHuhnkie Lee2380.12%
IndependentDave Darden1980.10%
Total votes190,458 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[37]Solid RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[38]Solid RApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]Safe RMarch 1, 2022
Politico[40]Solid RSeptember 5, 2022
RCP[41]Safe RSeptember 15, 2022
Fox News[42]Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ[43]Solid RJuly 20, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[44]Solid ROctober 24, 2022
The Economist[45]Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Debates and forums

2022 United States Senate election in Alaska debates
No.DateHostLinkParticipants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn  
Lisa MurkowskiKelly TshibakaPatricia ChesbroBuzz Kelley
1September 1, 2022Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Anchorage Daily News
YoutubePPPA
2October 10, 2022Anchorage Chamber of CommerceYoutubePPPW

Endorsements

Pat Chesbro (D)
Organizations
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Executive branch officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Legislators
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Executive branch officials
Governors
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Lisa
Murkowski
(R)
Kelly
Tshibaka
(R)
Pat
Chesbro
(D)
Buzz
Kelley
(R)
Undecided /
Not Ranked
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 19–22, 20221,276 (LV)±3.0%
141%39%16%4%
242%41%17%[c]
356%44%[d]
Alaska Survey ResearchSeptember 25–27, 20221,282 (LV)±3.0%
141%39%16%4%
242%41%17%[c]
357%43%[d]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[A]September 6–11, 20221,050 (LV)[e]N/A[f]35%43%13%1%7% U
138%46%14%2%7% NR
238%47%14%[g]8% NR
350%50%[h]10% NR
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Pat
Chesbro
(D)
Dustin
Darden
(AIP)
Elvi
Gray-Jackson
(D)
Al
Gross
(D/I)
John
Howe
(AIP)
Joe
Miller
(L)
Lisa
Murkowski
(R)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Kelly
Tshibaka
(R)
OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)± 2.9%117%5%35%43%
220%36%45%
352%48%
Cygnal (R)[B]March 14–16, 2022500 (LV)± 4.2%129%45%26%
?49%51%
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 22–27, 2021969 (RV)± 3.2%122%35%20%23%
223%42%35%
360%40%
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 11–21, 2021947 (LV)± 3.2%119%18%36%27%
221%39%40%
355%45%
Change Research (D)[C]May 22–25, 20211,023 (LV)± 3.1%BA25%4%19%39%1%[i]12%
3[j]46%54%

Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Lisa
Murkowski (R)
Kelly
Tshibaka (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchApril 16–21, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.9%55%45%

Results

Preference flow
2022 United States Senate election in Alaska[89][90]
PartyCandidateFirst choiceRound 1Round 2Round 3
Votes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%
RepublicanLisa Murkowski (incumbent)113,49543.37%+623114,11843.39%+1,641115,75944.49%+20,571136,33053.70%
RepublicanKelly Tshibaka111,48042.60%+621112,10142.62%+3,209115,31044.32%+2,224117,53446.30%
DemocraticPat Chesbro27,14510.37%+1,08828,23310.73%+90129,13411.20%−29,134Eliminated
RepublicanBuzz Kelley (withdrew)[a]7,5572.89%+1,0188,5753.26%−8,575Eliminated
Write-in2,0280.77%-2,028Eliminated
Total votes261,705263,027260,203253,864
Blank or inactive ballots3,770+2,8246,594+6,33912,933
Republican hold

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links

Official campaign websites