2023 Oxford federal by-election

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Oxford in Ontario on June 19, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie.[1]

2023 Oxford federal by-election

← 2021June 19, 2023 (2023-06-19)45th →

Riding of Oxford
Turnout39.81%
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Arpan Khanna (cropped).png
LPC
NDP
CandidateArpan KhannaDavid HilderleyCody Groat
PartyConservativeLiberalNew Democratic
Popular vote16,68814,1644,053
Percentage42.92%36.43%10.42%
SwingDecrease 4.13%Increase 15.90%Decrease 7.86%

MP before election

Dave MacKenzie
Conservative

Elected MP

Arpan Khanna
Conservative

The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Portage—Lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre.[2]

Background

Constituency

The electoral district is a mixed rural and urban constituency which covers Oxford County and a small portion of the County of Brant.[3] The seat is generally considered safe for the Conservative Party,[4] having voted Tory in every election since 1953, except for when the right was divided between 1993 and 2004.

Representation

The riding of Oxford was vacated on January 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who had held the seat since 2004.

Campaign

Candidates

Arpan Khanna, the party's national outreach chair and 2019 candidate in Brampton North[5] defeated Woodstock city-county councillor Deb Tait, MacKenzie's daughter and former ministerial staffer Rick Roth for the Conservative nomination.[6][7] Gerrit Van Dorland, executive assistant to Cypress Hills—Grasslands MP Jeremy Patzer was running for the nomination until he was disqualified by the Conservatives over a dispute about whether he disclosed information to the party.[8][9] In February 2023, MacKenzie accused the party of supporting Khanna, which he argues is a violation of the party nomination rules based on the Conservative's code of conduct, during the race.[10][11]

Running for the Liberals is local realtor, former educator, and past Woodstock mayoral candidate David Hilderley.[12][13][14] Citing concerns with the Conservative nomination process, previous MP Dave MacKenzie endorsed Hilderley in April 2023.[12]

Western University professor Cody Groat defeated Matthew Chambers, the party candidate for the riding in the 2019 and 2021 elections for the NDP nomination.[15][16]

Polling

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
LinkCPCLPCNDPPPCGPCOthersUndecidedMargin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchJune 14, 2023HTML363675475±4.5 pp473IVR
38388647

Results

Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Oxford
Resignation of Dave MacKenzie
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
ConservativeArpan Khanna16,68842.92-4.13
LiberalDavid Hilderley14,16436.43+15.90
New DemocraticCody Groat4,05310.42-7.86
Christian HeritageJohn Markus1,6724.30+3.53
People'sWendy Martin1,2783.29-7.36
GreenCheryle Baker8542.20-0.52
IndependentJohn The Engineer Turmel1710.44
Total valid votes38,88099.38
Total rejected ballots2430.62+0.01
Turnout39,12339.81-25.08
Eligible voters98,270
Conservative holdSwing-10.01
Source: Elections Canada[17]

2021 results

2021 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
ConservativeDave MacKenzie29,14647.05-1.09
LiberalElizabeth Quinto12,72020.53+1.24
New DemocraticMatthew Chambers11,32518.28-1.93
People'sWendy Martin6,59510.65+7.73
GreenBob Reid1,6832.72-5.12
Christian HeritageAllen Scovil4790.77-0.85
Total valid votes61,94899.39
Total rejected ballots3790.61-0.25
Turnout62,32764.89-1.04
Eligible voters96,055
Conservative holdSwing-1.17
Source: Elections Canada[18]

References