The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections took place on May 14, 2024.[1]
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Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he would not seek a third full term in office.[2] Manchin had been West Virginia's only congressional Democrat and the only Democrat holding any partisan statewide office in West Virginia until his departure from the party in May 2024.[3]
Background
Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia,[4] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[5] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are U.S. Representative Alex Mooney[6] and Governor Jim Justice.[7]
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought reelection.[8] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[9] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spurr Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario"; in any case, the proposal became moot when Blankenship lost the primary.[10]
The last time Republicans won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956. If Republicans win this seat as expected, it will be the first time since 1958 that both of West Virginia's U.S. Senate seats are simultaneously in Republican hands, and if they also win both U.S. House seats, it will mark the first time since 1909 that West Virginia’s congressional delegation is entirely Republican.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Don Blankenship, former CEO of Massey Energy, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and Constitution nominee for president in 2020[12]
- Zach Shrewsbury, political organizer[13]
Declined
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator[2] (endorsed Elliott)[14]
Endorsements
Glenn Elliott
- U.S. senators
- Joe Manchin, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2010–present) (Independent)[14]
- Local officials
- Amy Shuler Goodwin, mayor of Charleston (2019–present)[15]
- Labor Unions
Zach Shrewsbury
- State legislators
- Anitra Hamilton, state delegate (2023–present)[19]
- Evan Hansen, state delegate (2018–present)[19]
- Danielle Walker, former state delegate (2018–2023)[19]
- Individuals
- Howie Klein, former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University[20]
- Heather Digby Parton, political blogger[20]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Zachary Shrewsbury (D) | $190,545 | $139,586 | $50,959 |
| Glenn Elliot (D) | $110,207 | $29,058 | $81,149 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
Results
Elliott
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Shrewsbury
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Blankenship
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Tie
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Glenn Elliott | 46,176 | 45.40% | |
| Democratic | Zach Shrewsbury | 36,754 | 36.14% | |
| Democratic | Don Blankenship | 18,778 | 18.46% | |
| Total votes | 101,708 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jim Justice, 36th governor of West Virginia (2017–present)[7]
Eliminated in primary
- Bryan Bird, pastor[24]
- Zane Lawhorn, optometrist and perennial candidate[25]
- Don Lindsay[24]
- Bryan McKinney, sales manager[25]
- Janet McNulty, IT professional[24]
- Alex Mooney, U.S. representative for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district (2015–present)[6]
Withdrew
- Chris Rose, coal miner[26] (running for state senate)[24]
Declined
- Carol Miller, U.S. representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[27] (running for re-election)[28]
- Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General (2013–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for governor)[29]
Endorsements
Jim Justice
- Federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[30]
- U.S. senators
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[31]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2021–present)[32]
- Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2015–present)[33]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[34]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[35]
- State legislators
- Moore Capito, state delegate (2016–2023)[36]
- Individuals
- Cathy Justice, educator and First Lady of West Virginia (2017–present) (candidate’s wife)[37]
- Organizations
Alex Mooney
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)[41]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[42]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)[42]
- Jim DeMint, former U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)[42]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Jordan, U.S. representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district (2007–present)[43]
- Statewide officials
- Riley Moore, West Virginia State Treasurer (2021–present)[44]
- Craig Blair, Lieutenant Governor of West Virginia (2021–present)[45]
- State legislators
- Eric Householder, Majority Leader of the West Virginia House of Delegates (2023–present)[45]
- Rollan Roberts, state senator from the 9th district (2019–present)[44]
- Chuck Horst, state delegate from the 62nd district (2020–present)[44]
- Patricia Rucker, state senator from the 16th district (2016–present)[45]
- Robert Karnes, state senator from the 11th district (2020–present)[45]
- Chris Pritt, state delegate from the 36th district (2020–present)[44]
- Pat McGeehan, state delegate from the 1st district (2014–present)[44]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Justice (R) | $2,577,752 | $1,516,541 | $1,061,211 |
| Alex Mooney (R) | $3,182,358 | $1,887,585 | $1,294,772 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 2–5, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 60% | 30% | 10%[b] | – |
| Research America[A] | April 24 – May 1, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 67% | 23% | 7% | 3% |
| Osage Research[B] | April 22–24, 2024 | 400(LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 35% | 5% | 11% |
| NMB Research | April 20–22, 2024 | 500(LV) | ± 4.38% | 60% | 24% | – | 16% |
| Research America[A] | April 3–9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 66% | 24% | 4% | 6% |
| Emerson College | March 19–21, 2024 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 17% | 1% | 22% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling (R)[C] | November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 20% | 3%[c] | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates[D] | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 23% | – | 15% |
| Research America[A] | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 26% | – | 16% |
| Orion Strategies[E] | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | 19% | 9% | 16% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 12% | – | 35% |
| co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | – | 38% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Patrick Morrisey | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14–17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV)[d] | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
Results
Justice
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Mooney
- 40–50%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Justice | 138,307 | 61.84% | |
| Republican | Alex Mooney | 59,348 | 26.54% | |
| Republican | Bryan Bird | 7,001 | 3.13% | |
| Republican | Bryan McKinney | 6,573 | 2.94% | |
| Republican | Zane Lawhorn | 4,517 | 2.02% | |
| Republican | Janet McNulty | 4,404 | 1.97% | |
| Republican | Don Lindsay | 3,503 | 1.57% | |
| Total votes | 223,653 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
Independents
Declined
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator[2] (endorsed Elliott)[14]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[52] | Solid R (flip) | May 17, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[53] | Solid R (flip) | May 9, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] | Safe R (flip) | April 17, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[55] | Safe R (flip) | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[9] | Safe R (flip) | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[56] | Solid R (flip) | November 21, 2023 |
Endorsements
Glenn Elliott (D)
- U.S. senators
- Joe Manchin, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2010–present) (Independent)[14]
- Local officials
- Amy Shuler Goodwin, mayor of Charleston (2019–present)[57]
- Labor Unions
Jim Justice (R)
- Federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[61]
- U.S. senators
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[62]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2021–present)[32]
- Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2015–present)[63]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[64]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[65]
- State legislators
- Moore Capito, state delegate (2016–2023)[66]
- Individuals
- Cathy Justice, educator and First Lady of West Virginia (2017–present) (candidate’s wife)[37]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Glenn Elliot (D) | $110,207 | $29,058 | $81,149 |
| Jim Justice (R) | $2,577,752 | $1,516,541 | $1,061,211 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Glenn Elliot (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaplan Strategies | June 3, 2024 | 464 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 60% | 13% |
Hypothetical polling
- Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 41% | – | 31% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 1% | 13% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | – | 28% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[F] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | – | 21% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | – | 22% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | – |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | – |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[F] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R)[F] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
- Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (I) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tarrance Group (R)[F] | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Glenn Elliott | ||||
| Republican | Jim Justice | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
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