Next Andalusian regional election

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.^[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.^[3]

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province does not exceed two times that of any other).^[1][4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency is entitled the following seats:

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.^[5]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 19 June 2022, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 19 June 2026. The election decree must be published in the BOJA no later than 26 May 2026, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest (theoretical) possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 19 July 2026. However, due to the summer temporary ban on elections, the latest real date for an election to be held is Tuesday, 30 June 2026.^[1][4][6]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[1][7]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.^[8]

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[4][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Juan Manuel Moreno	Conservatism Christian democracy	43.13%	58	Y
	PSOE–A	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)		Juan Espadas	Social democracy	24.09%	30	N
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Manuel Gavira	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	13.46%	14	N	[9]
	PorA	List United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) – Communist Party of Andalusia (PCA) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo) More Country Andalusia (Más País–Andalucía) Andalusian People's Initiative (IdPA) We Can (Podemos) Green Alliance (AV)		Inmaculada Nieto	Left-wing populism Green politics	7.68%	5	N
	Adelante Andalucía	List Anti-capitalists (Anticapitalistas) Andalusian Spring (Primavera Andaluza) Andalusian Left (IzA) Defend Andalusia (Defender Andalucía)		José Ignacio García	Andalusian nationalism Left-wing populism Anti-capitalism	4.58%	2	N	[10] [11]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 19 June 2022 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are also displayed below (or in place of) the voting estimates in a smaller font; 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout									Lead
CENTRA/CEA[p 1]	22 Mar–9 Apr 2024	3,632	52.6	46.1 58/61	21.2 24/27	13.8 14/17	8.6 7/8	3.3 0/1	2.0 0	–	–	24.9
Sigma Dos/OKDiario[p 2]	28 Feb 2024	?	?	46.4 59	24.5 29	10.2 10	10.5 9	5.1 2	–	–	–	21.9
CENTRA/CEA[p 3]	12–22 Dec 2023	3,600	55.0	46.2 60/62	21.0 25/27	12.7 11/12	11.9 10	3.8 0/1	1.5 0	–	–	25.2
CENTRA/CEA[p 4]	11–21 Sep 2023	3,600	59.8	41.4 56/58	24.7 30/32	11.7 9/10	12.6 10/12	4.8 0/2	1.3 0	–	–	16.7
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	66.6	36.4 (45)	33.5 (38)	15.3 (16)	[a]	0.2 (0)	–	0.2 (0)	12.0 (10)	2.9
CENTRA/CEA[p 5]	12–23 Jun 2023	3,600	58.9	44.6 58/59	24.1 30/31	12.5 12/13	8.5 5/6	5.3 2	1.6 0	–	–	20.5
CENTRA/CEA[p 6]	7–21 Mar 2023	3,600	56.7	42.2 56/57	24.2 30/31	13.4 12/13	8.5 8/9	3.3 1	4.2 0	–	–	18.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 7]	1 Jan–13 Feb 2023	854	?	46.0 60	23.4 28	11.2 13	8.0 6	4.7 2	3.0 0	0.5 0	–	22.6
CENTRA/CEA[p 8]	21 Nov–2 Dec 2022	3,600	58.0	42.3 56/58	19.4 22/23	12.8 13/14	11.9 12/13	5.4 3/4	3.1 0	–	–	22.9
CENTRA/CEA[p 9]	13–26 Sep 2022	3,600	53.2	45.5 58/60	21.1 27/28	11.5 10/11	11.4 10/11	4.9 1/2	2.3 0	–	–	24.4
2022 regional election	19 Jun 2022	—	55.9	43.1 58	24.1 30	13.5 14	7.7 5	4.6 2	3.3 0	0.5 0	–	19.0

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size								?	N	Lead
CENTRA/CEA[p 1]	22 Mar–9 Apr 2024	3,632	29.7	13.4	8.0	5.5	1.1	0.6	–	22.7	10.0	16.3
CENTRA/CEA[p 3]	12–22 Dec 2023	3,600	43.3	14.4	8.3	8.4	2.7	0.7	–	9.1	6.3	28.9
CENTRA/CEA[p 4]	11–21 Sep 2023	3,600	35.9	19.5	5.9	10.8	3.8	1.0	–	6.5	6.5	16.4
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	24.8	22.8	10.4	[a]	0.1	–	8.1	—	31.0	2.0
CENTRA/CEA[p 5]	12–23 Jun 2023	3,600	37.9	20.8	7.3	8.0	3.6	1.4	–	9.1	4.5	17.1
CENTRA/CEA[p 6]	7–21 Mar 2023	3,600	32.5	22.1	10.0	7.7	2.7	3.8	–	4.0	9.5	10.4
CENTRA/CEA[p 8]	21 Nov–2 Dec 2022	3,600	32.8	12.6	8.5	9.2	5.7	2.4	–	6.7	8.4	20.2
CENTRA/CEA[p 9]	13–26 Sep 2022	3,600	36.6	14.9	6.7	9.0	3.9	1.8	–	11.2	6.9	21.7
2022 regional election	19 Jun 2022	—	24.9	13.9	7.8	4.4	2.6	1.9	–	—	41.6	11.0

Opinion poll sources

Other