In the run up to the 1982 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 1st Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 1 March 1979, to the day the next election was held, on 28 October 1982.
Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Electoral polling
Nationwide polling
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PNV |  |  |  |  |  | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 general election | 28 Oct 1982 | — | 80.0 | 6.8 11 | 48.1 202 | 4.1 4 | 26.4 107 | 3.7 12 | 0.5 0 | 0.4 0 | 1.9 8 | 1.0 2 | 0.7 1 | 0.5 1 | [a] | 2.9 2 | 21.7 |
| PSOE[1] | 28 Oct 1982 | 85,300 | ? | 6.6 13 | 48.0 202 | 4.3 4 | 26.0 103 | 4.0 13 | – | 0.4 0 | 2.0 9 | 0.9 3 | 0.6 1 | 0.4 0 | [a] | 3.1 2 | 22.0 |
| Ideal[2] | 28 Oct 1982 | ? | 75.7 | 7.2 13 | 45.7 198 | 3.8 5 | 25.5 104 | 4.5 12 | 0.4 0 | – | 2.1 8 | 1.0 2 | 0.7 1 | 0.5 0 | [a] | 2.6 2 | 20.2 |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][3][4] | 16–19 Oct 1982 | 18,255 | 78.5 | 6.5 7/12 | 48.6 193/217 | 5.9 8/11 | 24.0 87/107 | 2.5 8/9 | 1.0 0 | – | 1.7 8/10 | 1.1 4/5 | 0.8 1 | 0.7 3 | [a] | 4.0 4/5 | 24.6 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[5][6] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 7,000 | ? | 9.5 18 | 49.2 217 | 7.8 14 | 18.2 69 | 0.7 5 | 1.0 0 | 0.2 0 | 2.2 11 | 0.9 3 | 0.2 1 | 0.7 2 | [a] | 5.9 8 | 31.0 |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][7] | 1–7 Oct 1982 | 1,163 | ? | 5.0 | 51.0 | 4.3 | 19.3 | – | 0.9 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 4.6 | 31.7 |
| CDS[8] | 4 Oct 1982 | ? | ? | ? 14/16 | ? 166/170 | ? 15/16 | ? 87/93 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | ? 20/34 | ? |
| SEE[7] | 4 Oct 1982 | ? | ? | ? 21 | ? 158 | ? 15 | ? 121 | ? 14 | – | ? 1 | ? 10 | ? 2 | ? 1 | ? 2 | [a] | ? 5 | ? |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 25–30 Sep 1982 | 3,008 | 78.8 | 10.6 | 45.9 | 5.8 | 16.3 | – | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 8.4 | 29.6 |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][7][10] | 24–30 Sep 1982 | 2,460 | ? | 4.8 | 51.5 | 5.2 | 14.8 | – | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 2.3 | 36.7 |
| AP[11][12] | 27 Sep 1982 | 6,000 | ? | ? 15 | ? 141 | ? 11 | 27.4 125 | ? 14 | – | ? 1 | ? 7 | ? 2 | ? 1 | ? 2 | [a] | ? 5 | ? |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 6–26 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | 10.0 | 44.0 | 7.0 | 20.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 24.0 |
| UCD[14][15] | 22 Sep 1982 | 25,000 | 64 | ? 40 | ? 200 | ? 9 | ? 60 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | ? 2 | ? |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 5–19 Sep 1982 | 3,000 | ? | 10.7 | 51.3 | 6.0 | 13.0 | – | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5.2 | 38.3 |
| El País[16] | 9 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | 13.6 | 48.3 | 6.4 | 18.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 29.8 |
| Birds[17] | 7 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 53 | ? 156 | ? 16 | ? 85 | ? 14 | ? 1 | – | ? 9 | ? 4 | ? 1 | [c] | – | ? 11 | ? |
| ABC[17] | 5 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 26 | ? 190 | ? 17 | ? 75 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | ? 20 | ? |
| UCD[18][19][20] | 4 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 35 | ? 180 | ? 12 | ? 80 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | ? 15 | ? |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][7][21] | 24–30 Aug 1982 | 2,460 | ? | 8.5 | 50.7 | 5.6 | 11.8 | – | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.4 | 38.9 |
| Metra Seis/Diario 16[b][22] | 6 Aug 1982 | 1,857 | 84.8 | 8.0 | 42.1 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 2.2 | – | 29.9 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 5–18 Jul 1982 | ? | ? | 14.0 | 45.0 | 7.0 | 19.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 26.0 |
| AP[23] | 31 May–30 Jun 1982 | 6,000 | ? | ? 28 | ? 144 | ? 9 | ? 103 | ? 9 | – | – | ? 7 | ? 2 | – | ? 1 | – | – | ? |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 5–25 Apr 1982 | ? | ? | 17.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 20.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| Tiempo[24] | 12 Dec 1981 | ? | ? | 21.0 105 | 33.1 144 | 9.1 25 | 11.4 38 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12.1 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 2–22 Nov 1981 | ? | ? | 20.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| CEF/PSOE[25] | 28 Oct 1981 | ? | ? | 20.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| AP[26] | 6 Oct 1981 | ? | ? | 17.0– 21.0 | 29.0– 32.0 | 7.0– 10.0 | 9.0– 13.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11.0– 12.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 8 Jul–17 Sep 1981 | ? | ? | 17.0 | 44.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 3 Jun–16 Jul 1981 | ? | ? | 21.0 | 45.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 24.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 6 May–18 Jun 1981 | ? | ? | 23.0 | 43.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[13] | 11 Apr–21 May 1981 | ? | ? | 25.0 | 40.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[27][28] | 4 Mar–23 Apr 1981 | 1,879 | ? | 23.6 | 42.0 | 7.9 | 8.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][30] | 16 Jan–23 Feb 1981 | 1,892 | ? | 25.9 | 36.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | [c] | – | – | 10.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 16–30 Jan 1981 | ? | ? | 26.2 | 35.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9.3 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 3 Nov–14 Dec 1980 | ? | ? | 27.4 | 34.4 | 8.6 | 8.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][31] | 6 Oct–16 Nov 1980 | 1,892 | ? | 28.3 | 33.9 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | [c] | – | – | 5.6 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 6–19 Oct 1980 | ? | ? | 28.7 | 34.7 | 8.6 | 6.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 4 Aug–14 Sep 1980 | ? | ? | 27.7 | 33.5 | 9.4 | 6.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5.8 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][32][33] | 9 Jun–6 Jul 1980 | 1,888 | ? | 25.8 | 33.8 | 10.4 | 8.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][34][35] | 9–16 Jun 1980 | 1,002 | ? | 26.3 | 32.7 | 10.0 | 8.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 11 Mar–21 Apr 1980 | ? | ? | 29.6 | 29.3 | 9.5 | 6.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29][36][37] | 11–21 Mar 1980 | 3,047 | ? | 30.2 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 7 Jan–11 Feb 1980 | ? | ? | 30.8 | 31.9 | 10.4 | 6.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 5 Nov–16 Dec 1979 | ? | ? | 32.0 | 31.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.8 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 3 Sep–14 Oct 1979 | ? | ? | 31.7 | 34.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.6 |
| ICSA–Gallup[29] | 11–18 Jun 1979 | ? | ? | 34.0 | 30.8 | 10.5 | 5.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.2 |
| 1979 general election | 1 Mar 1979 | — | 68.0 | 34.8 168 | 30.4 121 | 10.8 23 | 6.1 9 | 2.7 8 | 2.1 1 | 1.8 5 | 1.6 7 | 1.0 3 | 0.7 1 | 0.5 1 | – | – | 4.4 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | PNV | | | | | |  |  | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 general election | 28 Oct 1982 | — | 5.3 | 37.7 | 3.2 | 20.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | [a] | 2.3 | — | 20.0 | 17.0 |
| Sofemasa/El País[3] | 16–19 Oct 1982 | 18,255 | 4.9 | 38.8 | 4.7 | 18.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | – | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | [a] | 3.0 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 20.0 |
| PSOE[38][39][40] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 1,800 | 5.5 | 34.6 | 2.5 | 12.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 2.3 | 30.1 | 6.3 | 22.2 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[5] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 7,000 | 3.9 | 29.1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | [a] | 2.4 | 44.8 | 19.6 | |
| Sofemasa/El País[7] | 1–7 Oct 1982 | 1,163 | 3.5 | 35.4 | 3.0 | 13.4 | – | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 3.2 | 24.6 | 6.0 | 22.0 |
| PSOE[41] | 6 Oct 1982 | ? | 5.0 | 33.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | – | – | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | [a] | 2.0 | 22.0 | – | 22.0 |
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 4.6 | 30.7 | 2.8 | 11.7 | 0.8 | – | – | 1.3 | – | – | – | [a] | 2.5 | 34.2 | 9.6 | 19.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 4.7 | 23.8 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | [a] | 1.3 | 44.8 | 8.7 | 14.8 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 25–30 Sep 1982 | 3,008 | 4.2 | 27.4 | 4.1 | 9.5 | – | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 3.0 | 45.2 | 17.9 | |
| Sofemasa/El País[7] | 24–30 Sep 1982 | 2,460 | 3.2 | 34.0 | 3.4 | 9.8 | – | 0.3 | – | – | – | – | – | [a] | 1.5 | 26.6 | 7.4 | 24.2 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 5–19 Sep 1982 | 3,000 | 6.8 | 33.1 | 5.3 | 7.2 | – | 0.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 | 39.4 | 25.9 | |
| CIS[44] | 3–5 Sep 1982 | 2,400 | 7.0 | 27.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | 35.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 6.7 | 27.9 | 2.2 | 11.6 | 1.3 | – | – | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 2.8 | 32.9 | 9.8 | 16.3 |
| Sofemasa/El País[7] | 24–30 Aug 1982 | 2,460 | 5.6 | 33.5 | 3.7 | 7.8 | – | 0.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 27.9 | 6.0 | 25.7 |
| Metra Seis/Diario 16[46] | 7 Aug 1982 | ? | 6.7 | 39.2 | 1.7 | 11.2 | – | 1.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.9 | – | 33.3 | 28.0 | |
| Metra Seis/Diario 16[22][47][48] | 6 Aug 1982 | 1,857 | 7.0 | 37.0 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.9 | – | 20.9 | 15.2 | 26.3 |
| CIS[49] | 8–12 Jul 1982 | 3,185 | 12.0 | 29.1 | 3.5 | 9.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 28.4 | 11.6 | 17.1 |
| CIS[50] | 1 Jun 1982 | 1,188 | 9.8 | 30.5 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 30.8 | 11.9 | 20.7 |
| CIS[51] | 7 May 1982 | 1,200 | 12.8 | 27.7 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | 1.0 | – | – | 28.1 | 14.3 | 14.9 |
| Emopública/Cambio 16[52] | 24 Apr 1982 | ? | 16.0 | 34.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18.0 |
| CIS[53] | 23–27 Mar 1982 | 1,200 | 12.6 | 24.9 | 3.2 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | – | 1.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 33.1 | 11.8 | 12.3 |
| CIS[54] | 3 Mar 1982 | ? | 13.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| CIS[55] | 23–27 Feb 1982 | 1,200 | 13.0 | 30.1 | 2.5 | 8.2 | 1.6 | – | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | – | 0.5 | – | – | 27.3 | 12.2 | 17.1 |
| CIS[56] | 1 Jan 1982 | 1,179 | 11.8 | 28.4 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 1.3 | – | – | 0.8 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 30.6 | 11.7 | 16.6 |
| CIS[57] | 28–30 Nov 1981 | 1,200 | 11.0 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | 0.0 | – | – | 35.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| CIS[58] | 26 Oct–1 Nov 1981 | 1,201 | 11.1 | 28.9 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | – | 32.9 | 10.8 | 17.8 |
| CIS[59] | 9–11 Sep 1981 | 1,193 | 11.6 | 26.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | – | – | 1.9 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | – | 36.2 | 11.9 | 14.6 |
| CIS[60] | 1 Jul 1981 | 1,200 | 13.6 | 26.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 34.9 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| CIS[61] | 1 Jun 1981 | 2,394 | 13.5 | 25.4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | 25.1 | 21.3 | 11.9 |
| CIS[62] | 10 May 1981 | 1,163 | 15.0 | 24.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | – | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 35.5 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| CIS[63] | 28 Apr–2 May 1981 | 2,394 | 14.9 | 24.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | – | 0.3 | – | – | 35.2 | 12.8 | 9.1 |
| CIS[64] | 1 Apr 1981 | 1,197 | 14.8 | 22.9 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | 0.0 | – | – | 37.1 | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| CIS[65] | 1 Mar 1981 | 1,196 | 13.5 | 27.2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | – | 0.4 | – | – | 34.6 | 9.5 | 13.7 |
| CIS[66] | 30 Jan 1981 | 1,177 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 44.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| CIS[67] | 1 Jan 1981 | 1,191 | 13.3 | 19.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | – | – | 37.8 | 15.1 | 6.3 |
| CIS[68] | 1 Dec 1980 | 1,202 | 13.2 | 22.2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | – | 0.4 | – | – | 37.0 | 12.3 | 9.0 |
| INE[69] | 12 Nov 1980 | 3,457 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 42.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 |
| CIS[70] | 1 Nov 1980 | 1,200 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | 37.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| CIS[71] | 1 Oct 1980 | ? | 15.7 | 16.8 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 39.3 | 12.7 | 1.1 |
| CIS[72] | 1 Sep 1980 | 1,184 | 16.5 | 22.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | – | – | – | – | – | 32.1 | 10.6 | 6.4 |
| CIS[73] | 1 Jul 1980 | 3,457 | 13.4 | 20.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | – | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | – | – | 41.2 | 8.5 | 6.8 |
| CIS[74] | 1 Jun 1980 | 1,191 | 15.1 | 25.3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | – | 1.0 | 1.0 | – | – | 31.9 | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| CIS[75] | 1 Apr 1980 | 1,168 | 16.4 | 18.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | – | 1.0 | – | – | 34.3 | 12.4 | 2.4 |
| CIS[76] | 1 Mar 1980 | 1,185 | 18.3 | 19.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | – | 0.6 | – | – | 33.7 | 11.1 | 1.4 |
| CIS[77] | 1 Dec 1979 | 1,147 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | – | 0.5 | – | – | 35.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 |
| 1979 general election | 1 Mar 1979 | — | 23.4 | 20.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | – | – | — | 32.0 | 3.0 |
Victory preference
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Other/ None | | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 23.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 6.3 | 35.2 | 2.6 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 36.3 | 22.2 |
| CIS[44] | 3–5 Sep 1982 | 2,400 | 9.0 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 22.0 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 7.0 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 21.0 |
| CIS[49] | 8–12 Jul 1982 | 3,185 | 11.8 | 34.5 | 3.3 | 11.0 | – | 3.7 | 35.6 | 22.7 |
| CIS[50] | 1 Jun 1982 | 1,188 | 9.6 | 37.6 | 1.6 | 12.1 | – | 2.9 | 36.1 | 25.5 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a general election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Other/ None | | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 2.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 52.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 4.4 | 51.8 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 36.7 | 46.3 |
| CIS[44] | 3–5 Sep 1982 | 2,400 | 6.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 47.0 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 3.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 37.0 | 48.0 |
| CIS[49] | 8–12 Jul 1982 | 3,185 | 10.0 | 49.5 | 0.3 | 4.4 | – | 0.1 | 35.6 | 39.5 |
| CIS[50] | 1 Jun 1982 | 1,188 | 7.4 | 46.5 | 0.1 | 3.4 | – | 0.3 | 42.4 | 39.1 |
| CIS[58] | 26 Oct–1 Nov 1981 | 1,201 | 14.0 | 40.0 | – | 5.0 | – | – | 41.0 | 26.0 |
Hypothetical scenarios
UCD–AP alliance
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |   | | | | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCD[18][19][20] | 4 Sep 1982 | ? | ? | ? 135 | ? 169 | ? 12 | ? 7 | ? |
| Tiempo[24] | 12 Dec 1981 | ? | ? | 32.6 169 | 31.4 126 | 3.9 4 | – | 1.2 |
Leadership polling
Preferred Prime Minister
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become Prime Minister.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | .jpg) | .jpg) | .jpg) | .jpg) | .jpg) | .jpg) | .jpg) | Other/ None/ Not care | | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suárez UCD/CDS | Calvo- Sotelo UCD | Lavilla UCD | González PSOE | Tierno PSOE | Carrillo PCE | Fraga AP | ||||||
| Alef/Grupo 16[5] | 9–14 Oct 1982 | 7,000 | 8.7 | – | 6.1 | 49.3 | – | 5.7 | 19.2 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 30.1 |
| CIS[42] | 1 Oct 1982 | 1,200 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 37.0 | – | 2.0 | 15.0 | – | 36.0 | 22.0 |
| CIS[43] | 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 | 24,793 | 6.5 | – | 4.3 | 37.2 | – | 2.7 | 17.1 | – | 32.2 | 20.1 |
| Alef/Grupo 16[9] | 25–30 Sep 1982 | 3,008 | 11.9 | – | 6.4 | 46.8 | – | 4.3 | 17.9 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 28.9 |
| CIS[45] | 1 Sep 1982 | 1,198 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | – | 3.0 | 15.0 | – | 36.0 | 19.0 |
| Emopública/Cambio 16[52] | 24 Apr 1982 | ? | 5.6 | 11.3 | – | 39.8 | 3.9 | – | 13.7 | 25.7 | 26.1 | |
| ICSA–Gallup/Cambio 16[78] | 30 Jan 1981 | ? | 26.0 | – | – | 43.0 | – | – | – | 31.0 | 17.0 | |
| ICSA–Gallup[34][35] | 9–16 Jun 1980 | 1,002 | 28.0 | – | – | 46.0 | – | – | – | 26.0 | 18.0 | |
| 46.0 | – | – | – | – | 25.0 | – | 29.0 | 21.0 | ||||
| VSA[37] | 18–22 Mar 1980 | 3,046 | 14.6 | – | – | 21.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 6.7 |
| ICSA–Gallup[34][35] | Sep 1979 | ? | 31.0 | – | – | 41.0 | – | – | – | 28.0 | 10.0 | |
Approval ratings
Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo (UCD) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  | Net | |||
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 5–18 Jul 1982 | ? | 21.0 | 48.0 | 31.0 | −27.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79][80] | 2–22 Nov 1981 | ? | 25.0 | 46.0 | 29.0 | −21.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 8 Jul–17 Sep 1981 | ? | 29.0 | 39.0 | 32.0 | −10.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 6 May–18 Jun 1981 | ? | 39.0 | 25.0 | 36.0 | +14.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 11 Apr–21 May 1981 | ? | 38.0 | 23.0 | 39.0 | +15.0 |
| CIS[62] | 10 May 1981 | 1,163 | 36.0 | 25.0 | 39.0 | +11.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup/Diario 16[81][82] | 4–14 Apr 1981 | 946 | 41.0 | 15.0 | 44.0 | +26.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup/Diario 16[81] | 27 Feb–2 Mar 1981 | ? | 25.0 | 19.0 | 56.0 | +6.0 |
Adolfo Suárez
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Adolfo Suárez (UCD) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | Net | |||
| ICSA–Gallup/Cambio 16[78][81] | 16–30 Jan 1981 | ? | 26.0 | 59.0 | 15.0 | −33.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 3 Nov–14 Dec 1980 | ? | 19.0 | 46.0 | 35.0 | −27.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 6 Oct–16 Nov 1980 | ? | 23.0 | 46.0 | 31.0 | −23.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 6–19 Oct 1980 | ? | 23.0 | 48.0 | 29.0 | −25.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[79] | 4 Aug–14 Sep 1980 | ? | 23.0 | 45.0 | 32.0 | −22.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup[36][37] | 11–21 Mar 1980 | 3,047 | 35.0 | 37.0 | 28.0 | −2.0 |
Notes
References
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