Opinion polling for the 2008 Austrian legislative election

A legislative snap election for the National Council in Austria was held on 28 September 2008.[1] The previous election was held on 1 October 2006. The election (the 24th in Austrian history) was caused by the withdrawal of Austrian People's Party leader Wilhelm Molterer from the governing grand coalition (led by the Social Democratic Party of Austria) on 7 July 2008.[2] Due to dissatisfaction with the grand coalition and the two main parties, it was widely expected to be a realigning election, with gains for the opposition and up to seven parties expected to be in the National Council after the election.[3][4][5][6] The losses for the government parties (both the SPÖ and the ÖVP had the worst election result in history) resulted in strong gains for the far right, while neither the Liberal Forum nor the Citizens' Forum Austria (both of which were considered to have chances of gaining seats) gained as much as 2% of the vote, defying earlier expectations. The result of the election was seen as strong for the far-right and in support of Eurosceptics.[7]

2008 Austrian legislative election

← 200628 September 20082013 →

183 seats in the National Council of Austria
92 seats were needed for a majority
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
LeaderWerner FaymannWilhelm MoltererHeinz-Christian Strache
PartySPÖÖVPFPÖ
Leader since200820072005
Leader's seat9 Vienna4D Traunviertel9D Vienna South
Last election68 seats, 35.34%66 seats, 34.33%21 seats, 11.04%
Seats won575134
Seat changeDecrease 11Decrease 15Increase 13
Popular vote1,430,2061,269,656857,029
Percentage29.26%25.98%17.54%
SwingDecrease 6.08%Decrease 8.35%Increase 6.50%

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
LeaderJörg HaiderAlexander Van der BellenHeide Schmidt
PartyBZÖGreensLiF
Leader since200819972008
Leader's seat2A Klagenfurt9F Vienna North-West9F Vienna North-West
Last election7 seats, 4.11%21 seats, 11.05%did not contest on their own
Seats won21200
Seat changeIncrease 14Decrease 1Steady 0
Popular vote522,933509,936102,249
Percentage10.70%10.43%2.09%
SwingIncrease 6.59%Decrease 0.62%Increase 2.09%

Chancellor before election

Alfred Gusenbauer
SPÖ

Elected Chancellor

Werner Faymann
SPÖ

Molterer resigned as party chairman as a result of the losses suffered by the ÖVP and was replaced by environment minister Josef Pröll; the Greens' federal spokesman Alexander Van der Bellen (in office since 1997) also resigned and was replaced by his deputy, Eva Glawischnig. Due to the LIF's failure to enter parliament on its own, LIF founder Heide Schmidt and financier Hans-Peter Haselsteiner both declared their complete withdrawal from politics, and the LIF's fate was seen as uncertain. Shortly after the election, BZÖ leader and Carinthian governor Jörg Haider died in a car accident.

Opinion polling

AgencyDateSPÖÖVPGRÜNEFPÖBZÖLIFFRITZKPÖRETTÖDCOthersSKÖMATIN
Election 20062006-10-0135.334.311.511.04.1SPÖ1.03.1
OGM2008-06-21333314164~#
market2008-07-022733142132~#
Fessel-GfK2008-07-08283514203~#
market2008-07-092633142241~#
Gallup2008-07-102732161942~#
Gallup2008-07-102123141852722(2)(4)
Integral2008-07-1228311416452~#
OGM2008-07-133033141832~#
Gallup2008-07-1724261619526~#
Humaninstitut2008-07-1725281119215~#
IMAS2008-07-1924291520453~#
Gallup2008-07-25273016195~#
Gallup2008-07-2525291415746~#
OGM2008-07-29253013174452~#
IMAS2008-07-29252915186~#
Gallup2008-07-3123261517757~#
Fessel-GfK2008-08-04252912–1317–182–33–44–5~#
market2008-08-0726291420334~#
Gallup2008-08-0826261419636~#
Gallup2008-08-1427281517535~#
OGM2008-08-1626311317444~#
market2008-08-20262714205341~#
IMAS2008-08-2027–2927–2912–1417–196–87–9~#
Gallup2008-08-24252615186442~#
market2008-08-27282613204333~#
Gallup2008-08-28272612195443~#
IFES2008-08-2926261615548~#
IMAS2008-08-2926–2825–2712–1417–196–83–43–41–21–20–1~#
Fessel-GfK2008-08-3028261217>44<9~#
OGM2008-08-31272812186432~#
market2008-09-0328251220533112~#
Gallup2008-09-04282712176433~#
Humaninstitut2008-09-04321912191044~#
OGM2008-09-06292712177422~#
GMK2008-09-0830271118634~#
market2008-09-10292711187323~#
Fessel-GfK2008-09-1125.828.51712.76.72.11.23.31.51.2~#
Gallup2008-09-12282712166434~#
IFES2008-09-12272713175434~#
Spectra2008-09-1228–3126–2911–1315–177–92–41–3~#
OGM2008-09-13282612188422~#
Integral2008-09-16282812187422~#
market2008-09-16292611206323~#
Gallup2008-09-18282612178432~#
OGM2008-09-20292611188422~#
market2008-09-23292710198322~#
IFES2008-09-26272712167524~#
Gallup2008-09-26292712178322~#
Results2008-09-2829.326.010.417.510.72.11.80.80.70.60.9~#

~ Failed to collect the required signatures.
# Decided not to contest the election.

Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)
AgencyDateFaymann
(SPÖ)
Molterer
(ÖVP)
Van der Bellen
(GRÜNE)
Strache
(FPÖ)
Haider
(BZÖ)
Schmidt
(LIF)
Dinkhauser
(FRITZ)
market2008-07-092629
Gallup2008-07-104031
OGM2008-07-13191810113*
Gallup2008-07-173831
Gallup2008-07-253930
Gallup2008-07-314223
Gallup2008-08-094526
Gallup2008-08-094027
OGM2008-08-1722191286
Gallup2008-08-244225
market2008-08-273520
Gallup2008-08-284627
OGM2008-08-312118128624
market2008-09-033521
Gallup2008-09-044528
OGM2008-09-062417128843
market2008-09-103520
Gallup2008-09-124731
Spectra2008-09-1228171110943
OGM2008-09-132215911943
market2008-09-163323
Gallup2008-09-184532
OGM2009-09-202316810942

* Westenthaler was polled instead of Haider before it was announced that Westenthaler would not be the leading candidate.

Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)
AgencyDateSPÖ–ÖVPÖVP–SPÖSPÖ–GRÜNEÖVP–GRÜNESPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ)ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
OGM14 July 20087991369
Gallup4 August 200816°16°271879
OGM5 September 200810101191113
Gallup15 September 200818°18°2013175

° The two types of grand coalition were not polled separately.

State polls

StateAgencyDateSPÖÖVPGRÜNEFPÖBZÖLIFFRITZOthers
SalzburgIFG2008-07-1023371117543
SalzburgIFG2008-09-11273111157324
Upper AustriaSpectra2008-08-0228–3026–2813–1516–184–61–36–8
ViennaOEKONSULT2008-08-1739.2016.0417.0820.183.234.27
Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)
StateAgencyDateFaymann (SPÖ)Molterer (ÖVP)Strache (FPÖ)Van der Bellen (GRÜNE)Haider (BZÖ)
Upper AustriaSpectra[permanent dead link]2008-08-024426
Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)
StateAgencyDateSPÖ–ÖVPSPÖ–GRÜNEÖVP–GRÜNESPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ)ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
SalzburgIFG10 July 2008161722919
SalzburgIFG11 September 20082611181110

References

Political parties