Opinion polling (popularly known as surveys in the Philippines) for the 2010 Philippine presidential election is managed by two major polling firms: Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, and several minor polling firms. The polling firms conducted surveys both prior and after the deadline for filing of certificates of candidacies on December 1, 2009.
Post-filing
- Note: Tables only include confirmed candidates by the COMELEC.
The following are results of surveys taken after the last day of filing of certificates of candidacies by the candidates (December 1).
Scores in bold indicate first place, scores in italics are within the margin of error of first place.
Presidential election
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | MoE | Acosta KBL | Aquino LP | De los Reyes AKP | Estrada PMP | Gordon B-BAYAN | Madrigal Ind. | Perlas Ind. | Teodoro LKS-KAM | Villanueva BPP | Villar NP | Others/Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | |||||||||||||||
| Election results | May 9 | 36,139,102 | N/A | — | 42.08 | 0.12 | 26.25 | 1.39 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 11.33 | 3.12 | 15.42 | N/A | |
| SWS[1] | Exit poll | 52,573 | ±1% | — | 43.34 | 0.15 | 26.38 | 1.40 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 10.25 | 3.40 | 14.73 | — | |
| SWS[2] | May 2–3 | 2,400 | ±2% | 0 | 42 | 0.3 | 20 | 2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 6 | |
| StratPOLLS[3] | Apr. 27–May 2 | 1,500 | — | — | 45.2 | 0.2 | 22.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 10.1 | 3 | 15.1 | — | |
| The Center[4] | Apr. 26–May 2 | 2,400 | ±2.8% | — | 29 | — | 18 | — | — | — | 20 | — | 25 | — | |
| Manila Standard Today[5] | Apr. 25–27 | 2,500 | ±2% | — | 38 | 0.1 | 22 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 6 | |
| Pulse Asia[6] | Apr. 23–25 | 1,800 | ±2% | — | 39 | 0.2 | 20 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 9 | |
| Manila Standard Today[7] | Apr. 18–20 | 2,500 | ±2% | — | 38 | — | 19 | 1 | — | — | 9 | 2 | 23 | 6 | |
| SWS[8] | Apr. 16–19 | 2,400 | ±2% | 0 | 38 | 0.2 | 17 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 9 | 2 | 26 | 6 | |
| Pulse Asia[9] | Mar. 21–28 | 3,000 | ±2% | 0.08 | 37 | 0.2 | 18 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 9 | |
| SWS[10] | Mar. 19–22 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | — | 37 | 0.3 | 19 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.1 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 4.56 | |
| The Center[11] | Mar. 3–10 | 2,400 | ±2.8% | — | 26 | 0.5 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 28 | — | |
| SWS[12] | Feb. 24–28 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | 0.4 | 36 | 0.1 | 15 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 4 | |
| Pulse Asia[13] | Feb. 21–25 | 1,800 | ±2% | 0.04 | 36 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 7 | 2 | 29 | 6 | |
| The Center[14] | Feb. 1–8 | 1,800 | ±2.8% | — | 27 | — | 17 | 8 | — | — | 14 | 3 | 27 | — | |
| TNS[15] | Jan. 28–Feb. 3 | 3,000 | ±—% | — | 41.54 | — | 11.66 | 1.7 | 0.22 | — | 5.21 | 2 | 30.63 | — | |
| Pulse Asia[16] | Jan. 22–26 | 1,800 | ±2% | 0.2 | 37 | 0.3 | 12 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.05 | 5 | 2 | 35 | 6 | |
| SWS[17] | Jan. 21–24 | 2,100 | ±2% | 0.3 | 42 | 0.2 | 13 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.04 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 2 | |
| StratPOLLS[18] | Jan. 16–22 | 2,400 | ±2.2% | — | 36 | 0.25 | 15 | 5 | 1 | — | 11 | 4 | 26 | — | |
| 2009 | |||||||||||||||
| SWS[19] | Dec. 27–28 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | — | 44 | 0.4 | 15 | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | 5 | 1 | 33 | 1 | |
| Pulse Asia[20] | Dec. 8–10 | 1,800 | ±2% | — | 45 | — | 19 | 1 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 23 | 5[p 1] | |
| SWS[21] | Dec. 5–10 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | — | 46.2 | 0.1 | 16.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.03 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 27.0 | 3.7 | |
| The Center[22] | Dec. 2–6 | 1,200 | ±2.8% | — | 31 | 0.25 | 19 | 5 | 0.25 | — | 10 | 3 | 24 | 7.5 | |
Vice presidential election
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | MoE | Binay PDP-Laban | Chipeco AK | Fernando V-VNP | Legarda NPC | Manzano LKS-KAM | Roxas LP | Sonza KBL | Yasay BPP | Others | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | ||||||||||||||
| Election results | May 9 | 35,165,531 | N/A | 41.65 | 0.15 | 2.89 | 12.21 | 2.30 | 39.58 | 0.18 | 1.04 | N/A | ||
| SWS[1] | Exit poll | 52,573 | ±1% | 42.52 | 0.43 | 2.92 | 11.51 | 1.81 | 39.17 | 0.20 | 1.43 | — | ||
| SWS[23] | May 2–3 | 2,400 | ±2% | 37.2 | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 37 | 0.3 | 1 | 6 | ||
| StratPOLLS[3] | Apr. 27–May 2 | 1,500 | — | 37.8 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 13.1 | 3.5 | 40.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | — | ||
| The Center[24] | Apr. 26–May 2 | 2,400 | ±2.8% | 25.0 | — | — | 29.0 | — | 34.0 | — | — | — | ||
| Manila Standard Today[25] | Apr. 25–27 | 2,500 | ±2% | 28 | — | 2 | 20 | 3 | 38 | — | — | 9 | ||
| Pulse Asia[6] | Apr. 23–25 | 1,800 | ±2% | 28 | 0.05 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 37 | 0.03 | 1 | 9 | ||
| Manila Standard Today[26] | Apr. 18–20 | 2,500 | ±2% | 22 | — | 3 | 23 | 2 | 41 | — | — | 9 | ||
| SWS[27] | Apr. 16–19 | 2,400 | ±2% | 25 | 0.3 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 39 | 0.4 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Pulse Asia[9] | Mar. 21–28 | 3,000 | ±2% | 19 | 0.1 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 43 | 0.5 | 1 | 9 | ||
| SWS[28] | Mar. 19–22 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | 21 | 0.4 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 42 | 0.3 | 1 | 5 | ||
| SWS[12] | Feb. 24–28 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | 17 | 0.4 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 45 | 1 | 0.4 | — | 3 | |
| Pulse Asia[13] | Feb. 21–25 | 1,800 | ±2% | 15 | 0.1 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 7 | ||
| Pulse Asia[16] | Jan. 22–26 | 1,800 | ±2% | 13 | 0.07 | 2 | 28 | 2 | 47 | 0.2 | 1 | 7 | ||
| SWS[17] | Jan. 21–24 | 2,100 | ±2% | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 28 | 2 | 49 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2 | ||
| StratPOLLS[18] | Jan. 16–22 | 2,400 | ±2.2% | 11 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 1 | — | ||
| 2009 | ||||||||||||||
| SWS[19] | Dec. 27–28 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | 14.0 | 0.04 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 2.0 | 47.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | ||
| Pulse Asia[20] | Dec. 8–10 | 1,800 | ±2% | 14 | — | 2 | 37 | 2 | 39 | — | — | 1 | 4 | |
| SWS[21] | Dec. 5–10 | 2,100 | ±2.2% | 10.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 32.0 | 2.6 | 43.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 9.7 | ||
| The Center[22] | Dec. 2–6 | 1,200 | ±2.8% | 16.0 | — | 8.0 | 28.0 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 0.25 | 0.37 | — | — | |
Notes:
Pre-filing
The following are survey results before the deadline of filing of certificates of candidacy.
- Note: Figures assigned with "–" refers that the person either wasn't included among the choices or failed to crack the top positions in the poll.
Pulse Asia
- Pulse Asia: Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections were held today and they were presidential candidates?
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | MoE | De Castro Ind. | Jo. Estrada PMP | Legarda NPC | Escudero Ind. | Roxas LP | Lacson UNO | Villar NP | Fernando V-VNP | Binay PDP-Laban | Villanueva BPP | Gordon V-VNP | Teodoro Lakas-K-C | Puno Lakas-K-C | Others | No answer / refused to answer / undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulse Asia[29] | May 4–17, 2009 | 1,200 | ±3% | 18 | 15 | 7 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 14 | 0.3 | 4 | 0.4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.5% | 4 |
| Pulse Asia[30] | Oct 14–27, 2008 | 1,200 | ±3% | 18 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pulse Asia[31] | July 1–14, 2008 | 1,200 | ±3% | 22 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | – | – | – | 0.2 | – | – |
| Pulse Asia[32] | Feb 2–Mar 8, 2008 | 1,200 | ±3% | 21.5 | – | 17.5 | 13 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | – | 0.7 | 0.3 | – | 6.8 |
Notes:
- Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
- Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages
Social Weather Stations
- Social Weather Stations: Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is only up to the year 2010, and there will be an election for President in May 2010. Who in your opinion are the good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as President?
| Person | Sep '07[33] | Dec '07[33] | Mar '08 | Jun '08 | Nov '08[34] | Dec '08[35] | Mar '09[36] | Jun '09[37] | Sep '09[38] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aquino, Benigno III | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 60% |
| Cayetano, Alan Peter | 1% | 3% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Binay, Jejomar | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1% | 4% | 12% |
| De Castro, Noli | 25% | 30% | 35% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 27% | 19% | 8% |
| Estrada, Joseph | 5% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 25% | 18% |
| Escudero, Francis | 13% | 15% | 19% | 14% | 16% | 19% | 23% | 20% | 15% |
| Estrada, Jinggoy | 1% | 2% | -- | -- | 1% | -- | 1% | -- | -- |
| Fernando, Bayani | 5% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 13% | -- | 1% |
| Gordon, Richard | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1% | 4% | 9% |
| Lacson, Panfilo | 18% | 13% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 7% | 2% |
| Legarda, Loren | 44% | 23% | 30% | 26% | 26% | 28% | 25% | 15% | 5% |
| Pangilinan, Francis | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | -- | -- |
| Ramon Revilla | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1% | -- | -- |
| Roxas, Mar | 9% | 20% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 12% |
| Santiago, Miriam | 3% | 4% | -- | -- | 1% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 17% |
| Trillanes, Antonio IV | 4% | 3% | -- | -- | 1% | 1% | -- | -- | -- |
| Villar, Manny | 18% | 27% | 17% | 25% | 28% | 27% | 26% | 33% | 37% |
| Don't know | 12% | 12% | 11% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 6% |
| Not sure/None | 6% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 18% | 4% |
- Participants were allowed to choose up to three persons, hence the numbers would exceed 100%.
- Responses below 2% were excluded.
- Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
- Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages[41]
Controversy
With the various surveys showing a two-horse race between Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar, other candidates had expressed doubts on the accuracy of the surveys. Presidential candidate Richard Gordon filed a temporary restraining order before the Quezon City Regional Trial Court, to stop Pulse Asia and SWS from releasing results of pre-election surveys. Gordon said that the research groups used false methodologies and that the 2 survey companies are "stealing the people's minds" and preventing voters from carefully choosing their preferred candidates, particularly those running for president."[42]
References
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