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Opinion polling for the 2024 Mexican general election

This is a list of public opinion polls relating to the 2024 Mexican general election. Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by Oraculus, the College of Specialists in Public Opinion Polling and Surveys (CEDE), Polls.mx, Bloomberg, and Expansión Política.

Graphical summary

Local regression of polling conducted up to the 2024 Mexican presidential election (excludes others and undecided)

Polling aggregations

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		 Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH		Gálvez
FCM		Máynez
MC
Oraculusthrough May 202429 May 202453%36%11%17%
CEDEthrough 28 May 202429 May 202456%33.3%10.7%22.7%
Polls.mxthrough 29 May 202429 May 202455%31%13%24%
Bloombergthrough 28 May 202429 May 202455.3%34%10.7%21.3%
Expansión Políticathrough 28 May 202429 May 202453.16%33.76%10.36%19.4%
Average54.5%33.6%11.2%20.9%

By candidates

Campaigning period

Polls taken during the official campaigning period (1 March to 29 May 2024).[1]

Fieldwork datePolling firmSample Others/

Undecided

Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH		Gálvez
FCM		Máynez
MC
29 May 2024LaEncuesta.mx[2]1,80047.3%40.7%8.4%3.6%6.6%
25-28 May 2024Áltica[3]1,80050.4%38.6%9.7%1.3%11.8%
25-28 May 2024AtlasIntel4,08448.2%34.9%16.1%0.8%13.3%
24-26 May 2024MEBA[4]1,00051.3%22.9%10.1%15.7%28.4%
21-26 May 2024Reforma[5]1,00055%35%10%–20%
21-24 May 2024Mitofsky[6]1,20050%27.4%10.4%12.2%22.6%
19 May 2024Third presidential debate held.
11-13 May 2024LaEncuesta.mx[7]1,80047.7%40.1%9%3.2%7.6%
11 May 2024C&E Mexico[8]60055%32%13%–23%
3-6 May 2024Mitofsky[9]1,60048.9%28.1%10.3%12.7%20.8%
4-5 May 2024TResearch[10]2,00052.4%29%8.1%10.5%23.4%
2-5 May 2024Áltica[11]2,50050%40%7%2%10%
30 April 2024C&E Mexico[8]60055%34%11%–21%
29-30 April 2024LaEncuesta.mx[12]1,80048.9%40.4%6.9%3.8%8.5%
28 April 2024Second presidential debate held.
27-28 April 2024TResearch2,00053%28.5%7.3%11.2%24.5%
26 April 2024MetricsMX[13]1,20054.4%21.3%12.8%11.5%33.1%
17-24 April 2024El Financiero[14]1,36049%32%8%11%17%
20-21 April 2024TResearch[15]2,00053.8%30.1%4.4%11.7%23.7%
19-21 April 2024MEBA[16]1,50051.2%24.6%10.7%13.5%26.6%
14-16 April 2024LaEncuesta.mx[17]1,80049.7%40.8%6.3%3.2%8.9%
14 April 2024C&E Mexico[18]60059%33%8%–26%
13-14 April 2024TResearch[19]2,00054.3%30.2%4%11.5%24.1%
11-14 April 2024GEA-ISA[20]1,07049%34%6%11%15%
11-14 April 2024Áltica[21]1,00051%39%5%5%12%
8-14 April 2024Enkoll[22]2,59054%30%7%9%24%
10-13 April 2024Mitofsky[23]1,60051.4%26.7%9.3%12.6%24.7%
7 April 2024First presidential debate held.
3-5 April 2024LaEncuesta.mx[24]1,80050.7%40.9%4.6%3.8%9.8%
1 April 2024El Financiero[25]1,20051%34%7%8%17%
28-31 March 2024Áltica[26]1,00050%38%6%6%12%
25 March 2024MetricsMX[27]1,20057.1%23.7%4.4%14.8%33.4%
22-24 March 2024MEBA[28]1,50053.5%28.9%6%11.6%24.6%
14-17 March 2024De las Heras Demotecnia[29]1,40063%15%2%20%48%
14-17 March 2024Mitofsky[30]1,60050.5%28.8%4.8%15.9%21.7%
12-14 March 2024LaEncuesta.mx[31]1,80049.4%41.6%5%4%7.8%
11-14 March 2024Áltica[32]1,00051%37%6%6%14%

Precampaigning and intercampaigning periods

Polls taken during the precampaigning period (20 November 2023 to 18 January 2024) and the intercampaigning period (19 January to 29 February 2024).[1]

Fieldwork datePolling firmSample Others/

Undecided

Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH		Gálvez
FCM		Máynez
MC		García
MC
27-28 February 2024MetricsMX[33]1,20061%20%4.4%–14.6%41%
24-28 February 2024Enkoll[34]81453%29%3%–15%24%
23-25 February 2024El Financiero[35]1,00050%33%8%–8%17%
22 February 2024Máynez officially registers his candidacy.
17-20 February 2024Mitofsky1,60051.6%27.8%5.1%–15.5%23.8%
20 February 2024Gálvez officially registers her candidacy.
16-19 February 2024LaEncuesta.mx[36]1,80050.4%40.9%3.9%–4.8%9.5%
15-19 February 2024De las Heras Demotecnia1,40067%15%2%–16%52%
18 February 2024Sheinbaum officially registers her candidacy.
10-14 February 2024Áltica[37]1,00051%35%4%–10%16%
3-5 February 2024LaEncuesta.mx[38]1,80050.8%39.9%4.2%–5.1%10.9%
28-30 January 2024Áltica[39]1,00050%35%5%–9%15%
19-22 January 2024Enkoll[40]83454%27%3%–16%27%
12-15 January 2024MEBA[41]1,50068.1%26.6%5.3%–10.3%41.5%
13-14 January 2024TResearch[42]2,00052%27.1%5%–15.3%25.5%
13 January 2024Rubrum[43]1,20053.5%28.9%4.5%–13.1%24.1%
10-14 January 2024De las Heras Demotecnia[44]1,40066%14%2%–18%52%
10 January 2024Máynez becomes the sole precandidate for MC.
9 January 2024INE announces that no independent candidates collected enough signatures to be eligible.
18 December 2023C&E Mexico[45]60058%33%–9%–25%
10–15 December 2023Áltica[39]1,00048%36%–6%7%14%
7–10 December 2023Mitofsky[46]1,60050.2%25.3%–6.3%18.2%24.9%
2–5 December 2023De las Heras Demotecnia[47]1,40065%13%–6%16%52%
5 December 2023C&E Mexico [48]60055%36%–7%1%19%
2 December 2023García withdraws his candidacy.
25–28 November 2023Enkoll[49]80049%23%–17%11%26%
22–28 November 2023Reforma[50]1,00046%25%–14%15%21%
24–25 November 2023El Financiero[51]1,00050%31%–7%12%19%
20 November 2023Gálvez becomes the sole precandidate for Fuerza y Corazón por Mexico.

Prior to the electoral period

Polls taken before the precampaigning period (20 November 2023), but after the winners of the internal selection processes of both major coalitions were named.

Fieldwork datePolling firmSample Others/

Undecided

Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH		Gálvez
FCM		García
MC		Verástegui
Independent
19 November 2023Sheinbaum becomes the sole precandidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia.
17 November 2023Garcia becomes the sole precandidate for MC.
10–13 November 2023De las Heras Demotecnia[52]1,40066%14%6%2%9%52%
19–28 October 2023El Financiero[53]1,62046%28%8%–18%18%
20–24 October 2023Enkoll[54]1,00850%27%15%–8%23%
16 October 2023MEBA[55]1,50060.8%26.7%9.7%2.8%–34.1%
4 October 2023Universal[56]1,20050%20%7%4%19%30%
19–25 September 2023Covarrubias y Asociados[57]1,50064%17%6%–13%41%
25 September 2023De las Heras Demotecnia[58]1,20068%14%4%2%12%54%
16–21 September 2023GEA-ISA[59]1,07053%34%7%2%4%19%
13 September 2023Enkoll[60]1,20555%22%6%0%17%33%
6 September 2023Sheinbaum wins the internal selection process of the MORENA-PT-PVEM alliance.
31 August 2023Gálvez wins the internal selection process of Frente Amplio por México.

Possible candidates

Fieldwork datePolling firm OthersLead
Sheinbaum
Morena		Ebrard
Morena		Colosio
MC		Anaya
PAN		Creel
PAN		Tellez
PAN		del Mazo
PRI		Ruiz Massieu
PRI		de la Madrid
PRI		Noroña
PT
June 2023Mexico Elige35.9%–8.4%–24.5%––7.9%–17.3%2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos11.4%
–35.9%–––19.5%––16.4%22.1%1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado16.4%
February 2023El Financiero45%–9%18%––14%–––N/A27%
October 2022El Financiero44%–9%18%––13%–––N/A26%
August 2022Reforma34%–28%16%––10%–––N/A6%
May 2022Reforma33%–26%13%––7%–––N/A7%
December 2021Reforma31%–27%16%––10%–––N/A11%

By alliances

PollsterDateSample sizeMargin of errorSHHFCMMCOthers/

Undecided

Lead
C&E Mexico[61]18 December 20236004%59%34%7%–25%
CELAG18 August 20232,0002.19%45.4%18.2%10.5%25.9%27.2%

References

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