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2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the general election including the 2012 U.S. presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Bob Corker won a second term in a landslide, defeating Democrat Marck Clayton, carrying all but two counties in the state.

2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee
← 2006November 6, 20122018 →
Turnout61.86% Increase[1] 11.89 pp
 
NomineeBob CorkerMark Clayton
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote1,506,443705,882
Percentage64.89%30.41%
Corker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Clayton:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Corker
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Corker
Republican

Corker narrowly flipped reliably Democratic Davidson County, home to Nashville, which had not voted Republican on the presidential level since 1988. He faced Democratic nominee Mark E. Clayton[2] as well as several third-party candidates and several independents in this election.

Corker easily won the Republican primary with 85% of the vote, and anti-LGBT activist and conspiracy theorist Clayton won the Democratic nomination with 30% of the vote, despite raising no money and having a website that was four years out of date.[3][4][5]

The next day Tennessee's Democratic Party disavowed Clayton over his active role in the Public Advocate of the United States, which they described as a "known hate group". They blamed his victory among candidates for whom the TNDP provided little forums to become known on the fact that his name appeared first on the ballot, and said they would do nothing to help his campaign, urging Democrats to vote for "the write-in candidate of their choice" in November.[6] One of the Democratic candidates, Larry Crim, filed a petition seeking to offer the voters a new primary in which to select a Democratic nominee among the remaining candidates the party had affirmed as bona fide and as a preliminary motion sought a temporary restraining order against certification of the results, but after a judge denied the temporary order Crim withdrew his petition.[7]

Background

The incumbent in the race, former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, was elected in 2006 with 50.7% of the vote in a win against U.S. representative Harold Ford, Jr.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Fred R. Anderson
  • Mark Twain Clemens, unemployed
  • Bob Corker, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • James Durkan, businessman
  • Brenda Lenard, businesswoman & doctoral student
  • Zach Poskevich, technology consultant

Publicly Speculated, but Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker		More conservative
challenger		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011400±4.9%38%43%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker		Marsha
Blackburn		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011400±4.9%50%30%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker		Hank
Williams, Jr.		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011400±4.9%66%13%—21%

Results

Tennessee Republican primary[8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBob Corker (Incumbent) 389,483 85.25%
RepublicanZach Poskevich28,2996.19%
RepublicanFred Anderson15,9423.49%
RepublicanMark Twain Clemens11,7882.58%
RepublicanBrenda Lenard11,3782.49%
Total votes456,890 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Results by county:
  Clayton
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Davis
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Overall
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
  Hancock
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results[8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMark E. Clayton 48,126 29.99%
DemocraticGary Gene Davis24,78915.45%
DemocraticPark Overall24,26315.12%
DemocraticLarry Crim17,38310.83%
DemocraticBenjamin Roberts16,36910.20%
DemocraticDavid Hancock16,16710.08
DemocraticThomas Owens13,3668.33
Total votes160,463 100.00

General election

Candidates

  • Bob Corker (Republican), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Mark E. Clayton (Democratic)[9]
  • Shaun Crowell (Libertarian)
  • Martin Pleasant (Green)[10][11]
  • Kermit Steck (Constitution)[11][12]
  • David Gatchell (independent)
  • James Higdon (independent)
  • Michel Joseph Long (independent)
  • Troy Stephen Scoggin (independent)
  • Jacob Maurer (Write-In)[13]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[14]Solid RNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]Safe RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[16]Safe RNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[17]Safe RNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker (R)		Mark
Clayton (D)		OtherUndecided
Issues and Answers Network Inc.October 16–21, 2011609±4%59%21%4%15%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker (R)		Phil
Bredesen (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011500±4.4%41%46%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker (R)		Jim
Cooper (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011500±4.4%50%32%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker (R)		Harold
Ford, Jr. (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011500±4.4%55%32%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker (R)		Bart
Gordon (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011500±4.4%52%29%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker (R)		Al
Gore (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011500±4.4%53%38%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Corker (R)		Tim
McGraw (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 9–13, 2011500±4.4%50%28%—22%

Results

Despite the TN Democratic Party encouraging write-in voting, the general election only saw 0.05% cast write-in votes. Clayton significantly underperformed compared to Barack Obama, running for re-election to the presidency on the same day. Clayton got about 9% and 254,827 votes fewer than Obama.

United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2012[18]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanBob Corker (incumbent) 1,506,443 64.89% +14.18%
DemocraticMark Clayton705,88230.41%-17.59%
GreenMartin Pleasant38,4721.66%+1.52%
IndependentShaun Crowell20,9360.90%N/A
ConstitutionKermit Steck18,6200.80%N/A
IndependentJames Higdon8,0850.35%N/A
IndependentMichael Joseph Long8,0800.35%N/A
IndependentTroy Stephen Scoggin7,1480.31%N/A
IndependentDavid Gatchell6,5230.28%N/A
n/aWrite-ins1,2880.05%N/A
Total votes2,321,477 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Corker carried 8 of the 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[19][20]

DistrictCorkerClaytonRepresentative
1st76.58%19.24%
Phil Roe
2nd72.75%21.24%John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd70.60%25.60%Chuck Fleischmann
4th69.30%26.31%Scott DesJarlais
5th50.21%43.32%Jim Cooper
6th73.32%22.04%Diane Black
7th69.62%25.75%Marsha Blackburn
8th70.26%26.40%Stephen Fincher
9th28.56%67.00%Steve Cohen

See also

References

Official campaign websites
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