2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

The 2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held March 15.[1]

2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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NomineeRichard BurrDeborah Ross
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote2,395,3762,128,165
Percentage51.06%45.37%

Burr:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Ross:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Burr
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Burr
Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr won re-election to a third term in office against Democratic former state representative Deborah Ross and Libertarian Sean Haugh.

Republican primary

There had been speculation that Burr might retire,[2] but he said in September 2014 that he was "planning" on running[3] and reaffirmed this in January 2015.[4] If Burr had retired, the seat was expected to draw significant interest, with potential Republican candidates including U.S. representatives George Holding, Mark Meadows, and Robert Pittenger, Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, State Senator Phil Berger, and former Ambassador to Denmark James P. Cain.[2][3]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr
Greg
Brannon
Paul
Wright
Larry
Holmquist
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 11–13, 2016749±3.6%48%20%4%3%24%
High Point UniversityMarch 9–10, 2016734±2.5%56%20%5%3%17%
SurveyUSAMarch 4–7, 2016688±3.8%45%17%7%4%27%
SurveyUSAFebruary 14–16, 2016437±2.8%45%14%6%6%30%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 14–16, 2016597±4.0%56%13%4%3%24%
High Point UniversityJanuary 30 – February 4, 2016477±4.5%46%10%5%2%37%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–19, 2016433±3.2%55%10%6%5%24%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr
Mark
Meadows
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 2–6, 2015288± 5.8%62%9%28%

Results

Republican primary results[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRichard Burr (incumbent) 622,074 61.41%
RepublicanGreg Brannon255,03025.17%
RepublicanPaul Wright85,9448.48%
RepublicanLarry Holmquist50,0104.94%
Total votes1,013,058 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kevin
Griffin
Ernest
Reeves
Chris
Rey
Deborah
Ross
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 11–13, 2016746±3.6%4%8%8%40%41%
High Point UniversityMarch 9–10, 2016669±2.5%9%5%7%52%27%
SurveyUSAMarch 4–7, 2016687±3.8%7%6%9%34%44%
SurveyUSAFebruary 14–16, 2016449±2.8%7%3%5%30%55%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 14–16, 2016575±4.1%10%2%10%22%55%
High Point UniversityJanuary 30 – February 4, 2016478±4.5%6%4%5%19%66%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–19, 2016461±3.2%14%3%10%19%55%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–7, 2015555±2.8%15%-5%41%39%
Public Policy PollingOctober 23–25, 2015421±4.8%16%-6%33%45%

Results

Democratic primary results[43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticDeborah Ross 614,414 62.32%
DemocraticChris Rey162,86916.52%
DemocraticKevin Griffin115,61811.73%
DemocraticErnest Reeves93,0059.43%
Total votes985,906 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationBurrRossLink
October 13, 2016Chapel Hill, North CarolinaParticipantParticipantFull debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[74]TossupNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[75]Lean RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[76]TossupNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos[77]TossupNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[78]TossupNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Deborah
Ross (D)
Sean
Haugh (L)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 20163,126±4.6%43%47%6%4%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College Archived January 16, 2018, at the Wayback MachineNovember 4–6, 2016800±3.5%46%45%9%
Quinnipiac University Archived November 7, 2016, at the Wayback MachineNovember 3–6, 2016870±3.3%47%47%1%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 31 – November 6, 20162,865±4.6%44%47%6%3%
Breitbart/Gravis MarketingNovember 1–4, 20161,250±2.8%47%48%5%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 28 – November 3, 20162,292±4.6%44%47%6%3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 27 – November 2, 20161,886±4.6%44%47%6%3%
Public Policy PollingOctober 31 – November 1, 20161,169±2.9%48%45%7%
Quinnipiac University Archived November 4, 2016, at the Wayback MachineOctober 27 – November 1, 2016602±4.0%45%49%1%5%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 26 – November 1, 20161,617±4.6%43%47%6%4%
SurveyUSAOctober 28–31, 2016659±3.9%49%43%2%6%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 20161,574±4.6%43%47%7%3%
CBS News/YouGovOctober 26–28, 2016992±4.1%44%44%1%10%
Emerson CollegeOctober 26–27, 2016650±3.8%48%44%3%6%
Elon University Poll Archived November 3, 2016, at the Wayback MachineOctober 23–27, 2016710±3.7%44%40%3%11%
Breitbart/Gravis MarketingOctober 25–26, 20161,273±2.8%45%48%7%
NBC/WSJ/MaristOctober 25–26, 2016780 LV±3.5%48%48%2%3%
1,018 RV±3.1%48%46%2%4%
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback MachineOctober 20–26, 2016702±3.7%48%47%5%
New York Times Upshot/Siena CollegeOctober 20–23, 2016792±3.5%46%47%7%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 20–23, 2016402±4.9%49%43%2%5%
Public Policy PollingOctober 21–22, 2016875±3.3%42%41%6%11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback MachineOctober 17–18, 2016924±3.0%46%44%10%
SurveyUSAOctober 14–18, 2016651±3.9%45%43%6%6%
Civitas Institute (R)October 14–17, 2016600±4.0%44%37%4%11%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback MachineOctober 8–16, 20161,191±0.5%42%48%7%3%
CNN/ORCOctober 10–15, 2016788 LV±3.5%48%47%2%
929 RV±3.0%46%49%1%2%
NBC/WSJ/MaristOctober 10–12, 2016743 LV±3.6%46%46%2%6%
1,025 RV±3.1%45%46%2%7%
Emerson CollegeOctober 10–12, 2016600±3.9%45%43%3%8%
Suffolk University Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback MachineOctober 10–12, 2016500±4.4%40%36%6%16%
NCSU Pack Poll Archived October 18, 2016, at the Wayback MachineOctober 3–6, 2016895±3.0%39%49%12%0%
High Point UniversityOctober 1–6, 2016479±4.5%47%42%6%4%
SurveyUSASeptember 29 – October 3, 2016656±3.9%46%44%3%7%
Bloomberg/SelzerSeptember 29 – October 3, 2016805±3.5%44%46%11%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 6, 2016, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 27 – October 2, 2016507±4.4%46%46%7%
Elon University Poll Archived October 5, 2016, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 27–30, 2016660±3.8%43%44%4%8%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 27–28, 2016861±3.3%41%39%6%14%
46%42%12%
Breitbart/Gravis MarketingSeptember 23, 2016694±3.7%39%48%13%
Meredith College Archived September 30, 2016, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 18–22, 2016487±4.4%35%38%1%7%19%
High Point UniversitySeptember 17–22, 2016404±4.9%45%43%4%6%
FOX NewsSeptember 18–20, 2016734 LV±3.5%43%37%6%12%
800 RV42%36%7%13%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–20, 20161,024±3.1%41%41%4%15%
New York Times Upshot/Siena CollegeSeptember 16–19, 2016782±3.6%42%46%11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 10–19, 2016400±4.0%46%30%3%21%
Elon University Poll Archived September 19, 2016, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 12–16, 2016644±3.9%43%44%4%9%
Civitas Institute (R)September 11–12, 2016600±4.0%44%39%2%15%
Suffolk University Archived September 8, 2016, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 5–7, 2016500±4.4%41%37%4%16%
Quinnipiac University Archived September 15, 2016, at the Wayback MachineAugust 29 – September 7, 2016751±3.6%49%43%8%
CBS News/YouGovAugust 30 – September 2, 20161,088±4.0%40%41%2%17%
Emerson CollegeAugust 27–29, 2016800±3.4%45%41%5%14%
Public Policy PollingAugust 26–27, 20161,177±3.0%46%43%12%
Monmouth UniversityAugust 20–23, 2016401±4.9%45%43%4%8%
CNN/ORCAugust 18–23, 2016803±3.5%50%45%5%
NBC/WSJ/MaristAugust 4–10, 2016921±3.2%44%46%1%9%
Public Policy PollingAugust 5–7, 2016830±3.4%41%37%5%17%
NBC/WSJ/MaristJuly 5–11, 2016907±3.3%48%41%1%10%
Public Policy PollingJune 20–21, 2016947±3.2%40%37%5%18%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived July 5, 2016, at the Wayback MachineJune 11–20, 2016300±5.7%36%38%26%
Public Policy PollingMay 20–22, 2016928±3.2%39%36%8%18%
Civitas Institute (R)April 23–25, 2016600±4.0%39%38%7%16%
Public Policy PollingApril 22–24, 2016960±3.2%40%36%7%17%
Elon University PollApril 10–15, 2016621±3.9%37%33%30%
Public Policy PollingMarch 18–20, 2016843±3.4%40%35%7%18%
High Point UniversityMarch 9–10, 20161,576±2.5%48%41%11%
SurveyUSAFebruary 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%45%37%18%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%37%20%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–19, 2016948±3.2%43%33%23%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–7, 20151,214±2.8%46%35%19%
Public Policy PollingOctober 23–25, 2015893±3.3%43%39%18%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 24–27, 20151,268±2.8%45%34%21%
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–16, 2015957±3.2%43%36%21%
Hypothetical polling
With Burr
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Kevin
Griffin (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSAFebruary 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%45%35%20%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%36%21%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–19, 2016948±3.2%42%35%24%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–7, 20151,214± 2.8%46%35%19%
Public Policy PollingOctober 23–25, 2015893± 3.3%44%35%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Chris
Rey (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSAFebruary 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%46%34%20%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%36%21%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–19, 2016948±3.2%44%32%24%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–7, 20151,214± 2.8%47%33%21%
Public Policy PollingOctober 23–25, 2015893± 3.3%45%34%21%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%46%34%20%
Public Policy PollingAugust 12–16, 2015957± 3.2%44%37%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Dan
Blue (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%45%35%19%
Public Policy PollingMay 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%48%34%18%
Public Policy PollingApril 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%47%36%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Undecided
Meeting Street Research Archived February 6, 2015, at the Wayback MachineJanuary 21–22, 2015500± 4.38%44%41%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Janet
Cowell (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingApril 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%35%19%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%44%38%18%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%45%38%18%
Public Policy PollingDecember 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%44%38%17%
Public Policy PollingAugust 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%44%37%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Anthony
Foxx (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%45%36%20%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%47%36%17%
Public Policy PollingDecember 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%44%38%18%
Public Policy PollingAugust 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%35%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%49%40%11%
Elon University Poll Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback MachineApril 20–24, 2015677± 3.77%44%43%4%8%
Public Policy PollingApril 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%50%38%12%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%50%43%7%
Meeting Street Research Archived February 6, 2015, at the Wayback MachineJanuary 21–22, 2015500± 4.38%49%45%6%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%48%42%10%
Public Policy PollingDecember 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%46%43%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Duane
Hall (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%45%35%19%
Public Policy PollingAug 12-16, 2015957± 3.2%44%36%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Jeff
Jackson (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMay 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%48%30%22%
Public Policy PollingApril 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%30%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Allen
Joines (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%45%33%23%
Public Policy PollingAugust 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%32%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Grier
Martin (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%47%33%20%
Public Policy PollingMay 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%46%31%23%
Public Policy PollingApril 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%32%23%
Public Policy PollingAugust 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%33%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Mike
McIntyre (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%44%35%21%
Public Policy PollingMay 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%43%34%22%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%44%37%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Brad
Miller (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%46%36%18%
Public Policy PollingApril 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%45%34%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Tom
Ross (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%44%35%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Heath
Shuler (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%42%37%20%
Public Policy PollingAug 12-16, 2015957± 3.2%42%35%22%
Public Policy PollingJuly 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%44%36%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Beth
Wood (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%45%34%21%
With Berger
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Janet
Cowell (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%41%38%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Anthony
Foxx (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%40%37%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%45%43%13%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina[79]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRichard Burr (incumbent) 2,395,376 51.06% −3.75%
DemocraticDeborah Ross2,128,16545.37%+2.32%
LibertarianSean Haugh167,5923.57%+1.48%
Total votes4,691,133 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

External links

Official campaign websites (archived)