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2018 Maryland gubernatorial election

The 2018 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the governor, lieutenant governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were re-elected to a second term against Democrat Ben Jealous, the former NAACP CEO, and his running mate Susan Turnbull.

2018 Maryland gubernatorial election
← 2014November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)2022 →
Turnout59.06% Increase 11.83%[1]
 
NomineeLarry HoganBen Jealous
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Running mateBoyd RutherfordSusan Turnbull
Popular vote1,275,6441,002,639
Percentage55.4%43.5%
Hogan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Jealous:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Larry Hogan
Republican

Elected Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican

Hogan became the second Republican governor of Maryland to win re-election, and the first since 1954.[2] This was the first Maryland gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

As of 2023, this is the last time that a Republican won a statewide election in Maryland.

Background

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988, and the state has not been within 15% since 2004; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony Brown by a margin of 51–47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.[3] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating.[4] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declined

Endorsements

Larry Hogan
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Republican primary results[41]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanLarry Hogan (incumbent) 210,935 100.00%
Total votes210,935 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Deceased

Withdrew

  • Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings[60]
  • Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember[61]
    • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former vice chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman[62]
    • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so notices were posted at polling places informing voters that votes for Kamenetz and Ervin would be counted as votes for Ervin and Johnson. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race.[63])

Declined

Endorsements

Rushern Baker
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Valerie Ervin, senior adviser to the Working Families Party and former gubernatorial candidate[82]
  • David Trone, businessman[17]
Newspapers and magazines
Valerie Ervin (withdrew)
U.S. representatives
Ben Jealous
Newspapers and magazines
U.S. presidents
U.S. vice presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Local officials
  • Catherine Pugh, Mayor of Baltimore City[96][circular reference]
  • Vicki Almond, Baltimore County Councilwoman
  • Edward Burroughs, Prince George's County Board of Education Member
  • Ryan Dorsey, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Jessica Fitzwater, Frederick County Councilmember
  • Don Mohler, Baltimore County Executive
  • Ike Leggett, Montgomery County Executive
  • Bill Henry, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Sharon Middleton, Baltimore City Councilwoman
  • Edward Reisinger, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Robert Stokes, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Shannon Sneed, Baltimore City Councilwoman
  • Eric Costello, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Brandon Scott, Baltimore City Councilman, Candidate for Lt. Governor
  • Zeke Cohen, Baltimore City Councilman
Organizations
Kevin Kamenetz (deceased)
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
  • Cathy Bevins, member of the Baltimore County Council[105]
  • Julian E. Jones Jr., member of the Baltimore County Council[105]
Individuals
Rich Madaleno
U.S. representatives
Attorney General
State senators
  • Susan Lee, state senator
  • Will Smith, state senator
State delegates
  • Al Carr, state delegate
  • Jeff Waldstreicher, state delegate
  • Sheila Hixson, state delegate
  • Ana Sol-Gutierrez, state delegate
  • Karen Young, state delegate
  • Jim Gilchrist, state delegate
  • Marice Morales, state delegate
  • Bonnie Cullison, state delegate
  • David Moon, state delegate
  • Anne Kaiser, state delegate
  • Eric Luedtke, state delegate
Local officials
  • David Lublin, former mayor of Chevy Chase[17]
  • Chris Trumbauer, Anne Arundel County Councilmember
  • Peter Benjamin, Garrett Park Mayor
  • Mary Flynn, Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Barney Rush, Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Scott Fosler, Chevy Chase Councilmember and former Montgomery County Councilmember and former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Kathy Strom, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Pat Burda, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Linna Barnes, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Vicky Taplin, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Lance Hoffman, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Pat Baptiste, former Village of Chevy Chase Mayor and former Montgomery County Planning Board member
  • Shirley Brandman, former Montgomery County Board of Education member
  • Meredith Wellington, former Montgomery County Planning Board member
Organizations
Individuals
Alec Ross
Individuals
Jim Shea
Elected officials
State Delegates
  • Cory McCray, state delegate
  • Antonio Hayes, state delegate
Local officials
  • Shannon Sneed, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • John Bullock, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Brandon Scott, Member of Baltimore City Council
Krish Vignarajah
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Rushern
Baker		Valerie
Ervin		Ben
Jealous		Kevin
Kamenetz		Richard
Madaleno		Jim
Shea		Krish
Vignarajah		OtherUndecided
Gonzales ResearchJune 4–10, 2018505± 4.5%25%7%23%–9%6%5%2%[a]22%
OpinionWorksMay 29 – June 6, 2018500± 4.4%16%5%16%–4%4%4%7%[b]44%
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018532± 6.0%16%8%21%–6%4%4%2%[c]39%
Mason-DixonFebruary 20–24, 2018500± 4.5%26%–14%15%4%3%2%3%[d]32%
Goucher CollegeFebruary 12–18, 2018409± 4.8%19%–10%12%2%2%2%6%[111]47%
Gonzales Research Archived 2018-01-28 at the Wayback MachineDecember 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018501± 4.5%24%–14%14%5%1%2%8%[e]33%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–30, 2017400± 5.0%28%–10%11%3%<1%1%1%[f]46%
Goucher CollegeSeptember 14–18, 2017324± 5.4%13%–6%8%2%2%1%22%[g]44%
Notes

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Jealous—40–50%
  •   Jealous—30–40%
  •   Baker—30–40%
  •   Baker—40–50%
Democratic primary results[41]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBen Jealous 231,895 39.6%
DemocraticRushern Baker171,69629.3%
DemocraticJim Shea48,6478.3%
DemocraticKrish O'Mara Vignarajah48,0418.2%
DemocraticRichard Madaleno34,1845.8%
DemocraticKevin Kamenetz/Valerie Ervin18,8513.2%
DemocraticAlec Ross13,7802.4%
DemocraticRalph Jaffe9,4051.6%
DemocraticJames Jones9,1881.6%
Total votes585,687 100.0%

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018, deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.[114]

Green State Central Committee Designation[114]
April 20 – April 25
CandidateDelegates in favorDelegates againstDelegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers1505

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Shawn Quinn, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010[115]
    • Running mate: Christina Smith
CandidateVotes in favorVotes againstNot voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith3210

General election

Debates

Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television.[116]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[117]Likely ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post[118]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[119]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[120]Likely RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[121]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[122]Likely RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos[123]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[124][a]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico[125]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Governing[126]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Notes

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Ben
Jealous (D)		OtherUndecided
University of MarylandOctober 4–7, 2018648 LV± 4.5%58%38%0%3%
814 RV± 4.0%56%36%0%2%
Gonzales ResearchOctober 1–6, 2018806± 3.5%54%36%2%[a]9%
Mason-DixonSeptember 24–26, 2018625± 4.0%52%37%2%[a]9%
Goucher CollegeSeptember 11–16, 2018472± 4.5%54%32%2%[a]9%
Gonzales ResearchAugust 1–8, 2018831± 3.5%52%36%1%[b]11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous)July 10–14, 2018601± 4.0%49%40%–11%
Gonzales ResearchJune 4–10, 2018800± 3.5%51%34%–14%
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018968± 4.5%51%39%–10%
Goucher CollegeApril 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%44%31%–22%
Mason-DixonFebruary 20–22, 2018625± 4.0%50%33%–17%
Gonzales ResearchDecember 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018823± 3.5%49%36%–15%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%49%33%–18%
Notes
Hypothetical polling
with Rushern Baker
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Rushern
Baker (D)		Undecided
Gonzales ResearchJune 4–10, 2018800± 3.5%48%37%15%
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018968± 4.5%51%39%9%
Goucher CollegeApril 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%44%31%22%
Burton Research & Strategies (R)March 4–11, 2018600± 4.0%54%29%15%
Mason-DixonFebruary 20–22, 2018625± 4.0%51%36%13%
Gonzales ResearchDecember 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018823± 3.5%47%37%16%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%46%39%15%
with Richard Madaleno
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Richard
Madaleno (D)		Undecided
Gonzales ResearchJune 4–10, 2018800± 3.5%50%36%14%
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%50%40%10%
Goucher CollegeApril 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%45%27%26%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%49%30%21%
with Alec Ross
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Alec
Ross (D)		Undecided
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%55%31%13%
Goucher CollegeApril 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%46%26%26%
with Jim Shea
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Jim
Shea (D)		Undecided
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%53%35%13%
Goucher CollegeApril 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%47%27%25%
with Krish Vignarajah
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Krish
Vignarajah (D)		Undecided
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%54%35%11%
Goucher CollegeApril 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%45%25%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
Goucher CollegeFebruary 12–17, 2018658± 3.8%47%43%–10%
GBA Strategies (D)November 14–18, 2017600± 4.0%45%35%––
OpinionWorksOctober 25 – November 7, 2017850± 3.3%43%28%4%24%
Washington Post/University of MarylandMarch 19–22, 2017914± 4.0%39%36%3%22%
Washington Post/University of MarylandMarch 16–19, 2017914± 4.0%41%37%2%20%
with Valerie Ervin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Valerie
Ervin (D)		Undecided
University of MarylandMay 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%51%38%11%
with Kevin Kamenetz
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Kevin
Kamenetz (D)		Undecided
Goucher CollegeApril 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%45%28%23%
Burton Research & Strategies (R)March 4–11, 2018600± 4.0%57%26%15%
Mason-DixonFebruary 20–22, 2018625± 4.0%49%34%17%
Gonzales ResearchDecember 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018823± 3.5%48%34%18%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%48%35%17%
with John Delaney
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		John
Delaney (D)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingApril 15–17, 2016879± 3.3%48%29%24%
with Tom Perez
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Larry
Hogan (R)		Tom
Perez (D)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingApril 15–17, 2016879± 3.3%48%24%28%

Results

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018[127]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanLarry Hogan (incumbent) 1,275,644 55.35% +4.32%
DemocraticBen Jealous1,002,63943.51%-3.74%
LibertarianShawn Quinn13,2410.57%-0.89%
GreenIan Schlakman11,1750.48%N/A
Write-in1,8130.08%-0.18%
Total votes2,304,512 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Results by congressional district

Hogan carried 6 of 8 congressional districts, including 5 held by Democrats. This included the district of then-House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, which Hogan lost to Hoyer in 1992.

DistrictLarry
Hogan		Ben
Jealous		Elected
Representative
1st79.20%19.69%Andy Harris
2nd55.94%42.90%Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd55.80%43.03%John Sarbanes
4th40.29%58.74%Anthony Brown
5th51.91%47.04%Steny Hoyer
6th59.41%39.31%David Trone
7th43.87%54.83%Elijah Cummings
8th53.16%45.76%Jamie Raskin

See also

References

External links

Official campaign websites


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