The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's unsuccessful nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.
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| Turnout | 59.14%  | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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   Kaine: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stewart: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson.[1]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tim Kaine, incumbent U.S. Senator, former governor, and Democratic nominee for vice president in 2016[2]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013 and candidate for governor in 2017[3]
Eliminated in primary
- Nick Freitas, state delegate[4]
- E. W. Jackson, pastor, attorney, veteran, candidate for the U.S Senate in 2012 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013[5]
Failed to qualify
- Minerva Diaz, veteran, businesswoman, and Christian minister[6][7]
- Bert Mizusawa, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Army, retired U.S. Army Major General and candidate for VA-02 in 2010[8]
- Ivan Raiklin, veteran and businessman[9]
Declined
- Dave Brat, U.S. Representative[10][11][12]
- Eric Cantor, former Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives[10]
- Barbara Comstock, U.S. Representative[10][11][12]
- Ken Cuccinelli, former attorney general and nominee for governor in 2013[10][11]
- Tom Davis, former U.S. Representative[10][11]
- Jim Gilmore, former governor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and candidate for president in 2008 and 2016[13][12][14]
- Jimmie Massie, former state delegate[11][13][12]
- Pete Snyder, technology entrepreneur and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013[10][13][12]
- Scott Taylor, U.S. Representative[12]
- Rob Wittman, U.S. Representative[10][15]
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, nominee for the U.S. Senate from California in 2010 and candidate for president in 2016[16]
- Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014,[11] and nominee for governor in 2017
- Shak Hill, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for VA-10)[17]
- Laura Ingraham, talk radio host, author, and conservative political commentator (endorsed Corey Stewart)[18]
- Bob McDonnell, former governor of Virginia (endorsed Nick Freitas)[19][20]
- John Moore, University of Virginia law professor and former diplomat[21][22]
- Frank Wagner, state senator and candidate for governor in 2017[11]
Endorsements
Nick Freitas
- U.S. Senators
- Mike Lee (R-UT)[23]
- Rand Paul (R-KY), and 2016 U.S. presidential candidate[23]
- U.S. Representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. Representative (R-TX), candidate for president in 1988, 2008 and 2012[24]
- Paul Broun, former U.S. Representative (R-GA)[25]
- U.S. Governors
- Bob McDonnell (R-VA), former governor of Virginia[26]
- State senators
- Bryce Reeves, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2017[27]
- David Suetterlein, state senator[28]
- Bill DeSteph, state senator[29]
- Mark Obenshain, state senator and 2013 Republican nominee for Attorney General of Virginia[30]
- State delegates
- Todd Gilbert, Virginia House Majority Leader[31]
- Greg Habeeb, state delegate[32]
- Steve Landes, state delegate[33]
- Dave LaRock, state delegate[34]
- Brenda Pogge, state delegate
- Mike Webert, state delegate[35]
- Jason Miyares, state delegate[36]
- Rob Bell, state delegate and candidate for Attorney General of Virginia in 2013 and 2017.[37]
- Local Officials
- Jeremy McCleary, Mayor of Woodstock[38]
- Ron Meyer, Loudoun County Supervisor[39]
- Jon Russell, Member of the Culpeper town council[40]
- Susan Lascolette, Member of the Goochland County Board of Supervisors[40]
- Andrew Pullen, Member of the Fluvanna County School Board[41]
- Josh Thiel, Leesburg town councilmen[42]
- Notable Individuals
- Hugh Hewitt, conservative talk radio host[43]
- Charlie Kirk, founder and executive director of Turning Point USA[44]
- Austin Petersen, Libertarian candidate for President of the United States in 2016 and candidate for U.S Senate in Missouri for 2018[45]
- Cabot Phillips, media director for Campus Reform[46]
- Denver Riggleman, businessman, candidate for governor in 2017, and Republican nominee for VA-05 in 2018[31]
- Kyle Kashuv, Parkland shooting survivor and conservative activist[47]
- Kelley Paul, political consultant and activist[48]
- Richard Viguerie, conservative activist and chairman of ConservativeHQ.com[49]
- Party leadership
- Morton Blackwell, Republican National Committeeman for Virginia[50]
- Organizations
- FreedomWorks[51]
- National Association for Gun Rights PAC[52]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[53]
- Republican Liberty Caucus[54]
- Students For Trump[55]
- Americans For Prosperity[56]
- News Publications
E. W. Jackson
- Cabinet-level officials
- William G. Boykin, executive vice president at the Family Research Council, retired lieutenant general, former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence[60]
- Dr. Sebastian Gorka, former deputy assistant to President Donald Trump, military and intelligence analyst, FOX News Contributor
- U.S. governors
- Statewide office holders
- Ken Blackwell, National Rifle Association of America Board Member, former Ohio Secretary of State, former Ohio State Treasurer, former mayor of Cincinnati, Ohio
- Local officials
- Suzy Kelly, Chesapeake city councilwoman, chairman of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, CEO of Jo-Kell
- Notable individuals
- Rafael Cruz, pastor and father of Ted Cruz[62]
- Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Nick Freitas | E. W. Jackson | Corey Stewart | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart) | May 14–18, 2018 | 355 | ± 5.2% | 9% | 5% | 32% | – | – |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 422 | ± 2.5% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 5%[64] | 66% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dave Brat | Corey Stewart | Scott Taylor | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 12% | 38% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 9% | 12% | 20% | 9% | 45% |
Results
Stewart—70–80%
Stewart—60–70%
Stewart—50–60%
Stewart—40–50%
Stewart—<40%
Tie
Freitas—<40%
Freitas—40–50%
Freitas—50–60%
Freitas—60–70%
Freitas—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Corey Stewart | 136,610 | 44.87% | |
| Republican | Nick Freitas | 131,321 | 43.14% | |
| Republican | Earl Jackson, Sr. | 36,508 | 11.99% | |
| Total votes | 304,439 | 100.00% | ||
Third party candidates
- Matt Waters, director of development at Students For Liberty,[66] received the Libertarian Party nomination on March 10, 2018.[67][68] On June 28, 2018, he also received the endorsement of the Constitution Party of Virginia.[69]
- Winsome Sears, a Republican former state delegate, ran as a write-in candidate.[70]
General election
The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota.[71] All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[72] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[73] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[75] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[76] | Safe D | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[77] | Safe D | August 14, 2018 |
Debates/Townhalls
| Host network/sponsors | Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kaine (D) | Corey Stewart (R) | Matt Waters (L) | |||
| PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association | July 21, 2018 | [1] | Invited | Invited | — |
| Hampton University/Liberty University | September 20, 2018 | [2] | Invited | Invited | — |
| WRC-TV | September 26, 2018 | [3] | Invited | Invited | — |
| Liberty University | October 3, 2018 | [4] | Invited | Invited | — |
Endorsements
Corey Stewart (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- U.S. Representatives
- Virgil Goode, (VA-5) (former)[79]
- State officials
- Ken Cuccinelli, former Attorney General of Virginia[80]
- E.W. Jackson, former Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia[81]
- Notable individuals
- Laura Ingraham, talk radio host, author, and conservative political commentator[18]
- Jerry Falwell Jr., president of Liberty University[82]
- Maria Espinoza, founder of the Remembrance Project[83]
- Malik Obama, half-brother of former president Barack Obama[84]
Tim Kaine (D)
- Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[85]
- U.S. Senators
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator (D-IL) and Senate Minority Whip[86]
- Doug Jones, U.S. Senator (D-AL)[87]
- John Warner, former U.S. Senator (R-VA)[88]
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator (D-VA)[89]
- U.S. Representatives
- Tom Perriello, (D-VA-5) (former)[90]
- Donald McEachin, (D-VA-4)[91]
- Don Beyer, (D-VA-8)[92]
- Gerry Connolly, (D-VA-11)[93]
- State officials
- Ralph Northam, Governor of Virginia[94]
- Justin Fairfax, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia[95]
- Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia[96]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[99]
- Council for a Livable World[100]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee [101]
- JStreet[102]
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[103]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[104]
- National Organization for Women[105]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[106]
- Population Connection[107]
- Sierra Club Virginia Chapter[108]
Matt Waters (L)
- Local Officials
- Joe Walton, Libertarian nominee for VA-07 in 2018 and former chairman of the Powhatan County Board of Supervisors[109]
- Party Leadership
- Nicholas Sarwark, chairman of the Libertarian National Committee, candidate for Mayor of Phoenix in 2018[110]
- Bill Redpath, Libertarian National Committeeman, former treasurer and former chairman of the Libertarian National Committee[111]
- Carla Howell, political director of the Libertarian Party[111]
- Wes Benedict, executive director of the Libertarian National Committee[111]
- Notable Individuals
- Cliff Hyra, lawyer and Libertarian nominee for Governor of Virginia in 2017[112]
- Jon Utley, publisher of The American Conservative and son of Freda Utley[112]
- Dan McLaughlin, lawyer and columnist at National Review[113]
- Chris Rufer, founder of The Morning Star Company[111]
- Daniel McAdams, executive director of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity[114]
- Organizations
- Constitution Party of Virginia[115]
- Libertarian Youth Caucus[116]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Corey Stewart (R) | Matt Waters (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington/SSRS | September 4–9, 2018 | 512 LV | ± 5.8% | 52% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 4% |
| 704 RV | ± 5.0% | 51% | 33% | 5% | 1% | 7% | ||
| 801 A | ± 4.6% | 49% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 9% | ||
| Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R) | August 22–24, 2018 | 1,119 | ± 2.8% | 50% | 46% | – | – | 4% |
| Roanoke College | August 12–19, 2018 | 512 | ± 4.3% | 51% | 34% | 4% | – | 11% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 10–30, 2018 | 757 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 26% | 5% | – | 20% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 21–25, 2018 | 1,082 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 36% | – | 0% | 9% |
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 33% | – | – | 23% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 32% | – | 1% | 11% |
| University of Mary Washington/PSRAI | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 53% | 36% | – | – | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 54% | 39% | – | 1% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Nick Freitas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Nick Freitas (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 33% | 1% | 10% |
- with E. W. Jackson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | E. W. Jackson (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 32% | 1% | 11% |
- with Dave Brat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Dave Brat (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 54% | 36% | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 54% | 41% | 3% |
- with Barbara Comstock
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Barbara Comstock (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
- with Carly Fiorina
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Carly Fiorina (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | 57% | 33% | – | 7% |
| Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | 53% | 41% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | 57% | 36% | 2% | 5% |
- with Laura Ingraham
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Laura Ingraham (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | 56% | 35% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | 56% | 36% | 2% | 7% |
- with Scott Taylor
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Scott Taylor (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 52% | 37% | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 53% | 41% | 4% |
Results
Kaine won the election by a wide margin.[117]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | 1,910,370 | 57.00% | +4.17% | |
| Republican | Corey Stewart | 1,374,313 | 41.01% | -5.91% | |
| Libertarian | Matt Waters | 61,565 | 1.84% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 5,125 | 0.15% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 3,351,373 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chesterfield (no municipalities)
- Fluvanna (largest city: Lake Monticello)
- Lynchburg (independent city)
- James City (no municipalities)
- Stafford (no municipalities)
- Waynesboro (independent city)
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Buckingham (largest town: Dillwyn)
See also
References
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
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