2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election

The National Assembly remained fragmented following the 2022 election, the third snap election since 2021, and no party was able to form a governing coalition.^[1] GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) did not have a majority, holding only 103 of the 121 seats needed. Bulgarian Rise (BV) and Revival, which held a combined 39 seats, are considered Eurosceptic and sympathetic to Russia,^[5] similarly to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 25 seats. Although generally pro-EU, the remaining parties and alliances with seats opposed Boyko Borisov's past government and refused any possibility of a coalition with GERB due to disagreements over corruption.^[6]

On 18 October, Borisov announced that his attempts to broker a coalition government prior to the first sitting of the new Assembly were unsuccessful.^[7] The following day, the Assembly failed to elect a speaker during its first meeting, the first time this ever occurred. After multiple failed attempts, the Assembly elected its oldest member, the GERB MP Vezhdi Rashidov, as speaker on 21 October, after he was nominated by Korneliya Ninova, the leader of BSP, as a consensus candidate.^[8][9] The gridlock to form a new government persisted throughout October and November 2022 and before a first or second mandate was given, President Rumen Radev stated that he would delay handing over the third mandate for government formation until after the New Year so as to delay elections until March 2023 and avoid the most difficult winter period.^[10]

On 2 December, Radev stated that he would hand the government mandate to the election's winner GERB the following Monday. On 5 December, Radev granted the first mandate to GERB's nominee, Nikolay Gabrovski. One week later, on 12 December, Gabrovski proposed a new government.^[11] His prime ministership was rejected by Parliament (113 for, 125 against, 2 absent) two days later on 14 December, with MPs from the DPS and BV voting in favour alongside GERB.^[12] On 3 January, Radev gave the second mandate to PP's candidate, Nikolai Denkov,^[13] but his prime ministership was also rejected by Parliament (63 for, 84 against, 30 abstain, 63 absent).^[14] Radev gave the third mandate to Ninova, who was unable to form a government in a deadlocked parliament.^[15][16] As none of the three mandates produced a government, a new election was scheduled.

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 19 seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for parties, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.^[17][18] Radev dissolved the National Assembly on 3 February to schedule the election for 2 April 2023.^[15]

Parliamentary parties

The table below lists the political party groups that were represented in the 48th National Assembly prior to the election.^[19]

Contesting parties and coalitions

Coalitions that registered to take part in the 2023 parliamentary election could change its composition or name by 25 February 2023. Until 28 February 2023, the candidate lists could be registered to the Electoral Commission.^[20]

Campaign slogans

The following list present the official campaign slogans of some of the major parties that contested the 2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election:

Constitutional powers of the President

PP, DB, and GERB have accused Radev of meddling in political affairs, as well as internal party politics, which is in breach of the constitutional duties.^[28][29][30] BSP have consistently accused Radev and the caretaker Second Donev Government of allegedly meddling in internal party affairs.^[31][32] BSP sent an official complain to the OSCE and PACE alleging illegal meddling by the caretaker government and president in their internal politics, as well as the election campaign after an interview by justice minister Krum Zarkov criticising the party leadership.^[33] The PP–DB coalition also accused the president of meddling after Radev called them "the parties of war" referring to their support of sending arms to Ukraine.^[34][35] ITN believes that the president should have more powers compared to the current roles outlined in the constitution, even advocating for a transition to a presidential republic with ITN calling for a referendum to be held on the decision.^[36][37]

Magnitsky sanctions announcement

On 10 February 2023, the United States announced a new group of sanctions based on the Magnitsky Act. The sanctions targeted former finance minister in the Second and Third Borisov Governments, Vladislav Goranov, former energy minister in the Stanishev Government, Rumen Ovcharov, the leader of Russophiles for the Revival of the Fatherland, Nikolay Malinov, as well as two former heads of the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant.^[38] The group were accused of corruption, financial mismanagement and increasing Russian influence.^[39]

The announcement served as a reminder of endemic corruption, as well as the political class's close ties to Russia.^[40][41] The announcement provoked a range of differing reactions from political parties and politicians in Bulgaria. Caretaker Minister of the Interior, Ivan Demerdzhiev, characterised the sanctions as "slap in the face" of the Bulgarian judicial system, showing it to be incapable of rooting out corruption,^[42] while caretaker Deputy Prime Minister for European Union resources, Atanas Pekanov, and caretaker justice minister, Krum Zarkov, described it as a sign by the US that progress wasn't fast enough on the topic of judicial reform.^[43] A similar message was echoed by members of the PP–DB coalition, with DB member of parliament, Atanas Slavov, saying that the new packet of sanctions showed the failings of the current general prosecutor, Ivan Geshev, and that a link existed between GERB, DPS, and BSP due to the former or current connection of the sanctioned figures to those parties.^[44]

A more mixed reaction came from GERB and the BSP. Borisov insisted that the party had distanced itself away from Goranov, and claimed he had information that the United States was working on sanctions against PP co-leaders Petkov and Vasilev, for financial mismanagement during their time in office.^[45] Other GERB figures, like GERB member of parliament Toma Bikov, insist that evidence must be provided before any judgement can be made.^[46] BSP, of whom Rumen Ovcharov remains a member, gave a voice to Rumen Ovcharov at the recent Congress, at which he insisted he was innocent and that the sanctions were meant to worsen Russian-Bulgarian relations.^[47] Leader of Bulgarian Rise, Stefan Yanev, indicated that he did not believe that the new sanctions would have an impact on the upcoming election, calling it another scandal that undermined trust between political parties, he did, however, endorse the idea of a thorough judicial reform as long as it kept the judicial branch independent.^[48]

Nikolay Malinov, the leader of the party Russophiles for the Revival of the Fatherland, which is contesting the elections as part of the Neutral Bulgaria coalition, insists that he has never received funding from Russia, as alleged by the sanctions, and that he is proud to be included in the list as it showed his opposition to United States influence in Bulgaria.^[49]

Allegations of vote buying

Ivan Demerdzhiev, the minister of the interior in the caretaker government, announced on 17 February that he expects increased attempts at vote buying during this election campaign, with a meeting of Oblast Directors of the Ministry of Interior being dedicated to this topic.^[50]

Graphical representation of recalculated data

Local regression of polls conducted

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

According to parallel counts of sample polling stations by several polling agencies, the final result was a close race between GERB—SDS and PP–DB, with all projecting GERB—SDS to be narrowly in the lead. All also suggest that V, DPS, and BSPzB would make it into the parliament, and there was conflicting data on whether ITN would win seats as well.^[51][52]

The following table outlines the results by party. The national threshold at 4% is calculated using total votes for parties and independent candidates only, and not the total of valid votes, which include "None of the above" votes. As such, ITN wins seats despite seemingly falling below 4%.

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	GERB—SDS	669,924	25.39	69	+2
	PP–DB	621,069	23.54	64	–9
	Revival	358,174	13.58	37	+10
	Movement for Rights and Freedoms	347,700	13.18	36	0
	BSP for Bulgaria	225,914	8.56	23	–2
	There Is Such a People	103,971	3.94	11	+11
	Bulgarian Rise	77,420	2.93	0	–12
	The Left!	56,481	2.14	0	New
	Neutral Bulgaria	10,505	0.40	0	New
	Together [bg]	8,755	0.33	0	New
	People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg]	7,776	0.29	0	0
	Conservative Union of the Right	7,739	0.29	0	0
	National Movement for Stability and Progress	6,764	0.26	0	New
	Out of EU and NATO [bg]	6,598	0.25	0	New
	People's Voice	5,560	0.21	0	0
	Morality, Initiative and Patriotism [bg]	3,894	0.15	0	0
	Bulgarian Social Democracy – EuroLeft	2,633	0.10	0	0
	Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg]	2,517	0.10	0	0
	Bulgarian National Unification	2,328	0.09	0	0
	Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy	1,753	0.07	0	0
	Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way" [bg]	730	0.03	0	New
	Independents	924	0.04	0	0
None of the above		109,095	4.14	–	–
Total		2,638,224	100.00	240	0
Valid votes		2,638,224	98.46
Invalid/blank votes		41,370	1.54
Total votes		2,679,594	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		6,594,593	40.63
Source: Electoral Commission of Bulgaria

Voter demographics

Alpha Research exit polling suggested the following demographic breakdown. The parties that got below 4% of the vote are included in "Others".

By constituency

Allegations of count irregularities

According to the Central Electoral Commission, 22% of election protocols were entered incorrectly,^[55] and some members of PP–DB have shown examples of votes being counted incorrectly.^[56]

Government formation

As per the constitution, the president is required to hand a mandate for government formation to the largest parliamentary group, GERB–SDS. If they fail to propose a government within seven days, or if that government is rejected by the Bulgarian Parliament, the president is required to hand the second mandate to the second-largest parliamentary group, PP–DB. If the second mandate also fails to produce a government, the president grants a third mandate to a party of their choice. If no government is approved by parliament after all three mandates have been returned, fresh elections will be scheduled.

Andrius Tursa, a political risk consult from Teneo, commented that "a temporary technocratic cabinet or another [sixth] vote remain the most likely outcomes of the election" as the margin of GERB's victory was too narrow for them to rule but large enough that no coalition could govern without them, effectively preserving the years-long political deadlock. This potential technocratic government could be supported by both GERB–SDS and PP–DB in order to pass a budget for the year and address the increasing inflation and cost of living in the country.^[57] Soon after the election, Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev announced that their party would not support a government proposed by GERB.^[58] This was reaffirmed three days later when all four co-leaders of PP–DB announced that none of the parties in the coalition would support a GERB-proposed government, or one that included GERB.^[59] Despite this, Borisov repeatedly stated that his preferred outcome would be a government between the two.^[60][61] The only form of cooperation between the two groups, that PP–DB were open to, was GERB providing support for their proposed government with the second mandate.^[62] During the negotiations, Borisov requested that if they wanted GERB's support, PP–DB needed to publicly release their proposed cabinet.^[63] When they did, Borisov criticized the inclusion of PP members as ministers, suggested the inclusion of GERB–SDS ministers, and began negotiations with the other parties the following day.^[64] Nikolay Denkov stated that negotiations with GERB regarding cabinet members would not be held.^[65] Following the first mandate being given to GERB's candidate, PP–DB reaffirmed that they would not support it.^[66]

Another possibility is for GERB and DPS to work with BSP,^[67] something Borisov did not rule out.^[68][69] This has been referred to, especially by PP–DB supporters, as the 'Magnitsky coalition', following the Magnitsky sanctions that incriminated MPs from all three parties.^[70][71] Ninova and other senior BSP members stated that the BSP is open to discussion with everyone, but would consult with the party members before a decision is made on whether they would support a potential government or not.^[72][73] When governmental formation negotiations began, Ninova stated that she would not support a GERB government, unless specifically offered to join a coalition, in which case she would ask her party.^[74][75] Borisov in turn said that if PP–DB did not support his government, he could rule with BSP and DPS under certain conditions.^[76] Soon after the first mandate was given to GERB, Ninova announced that her party would not support it.^[77]

After a three day deadlock, the National Assembly approved GERB's Rosen Zhelyazkov as its speaker on 19 April, allowing for government formation talks to officially begin. Zhelyazkov was supported by GERB–SDS and PP–DB, who had agreed that each of them would retain control of the speakership for three months.^[78] On 10 May GERB announced that their PM nominee is Mariya Gabriel, Bulgaria's European commissioner.^[79] President Radev gave her the first mandate on 15 May.^[77] Gabriel has attempted to win over some of the PP–DB members by making concessions to the coalition, including proposing to remove Ivan Geshev as Chief Prosecutor. However, PP–DB remained steadfast in denying any negotiation with GERB, and the attempted courting soured relations with the BSP. Additionally, Geshev stated that an unnamed high ranking individual requested he resign and handed him resignation papers, which he tore up in front of them.^[80]

On 22 May, GERB–SDS and PP–DB announced that they had reached a surprise power-sharing deal (pending approval by MPs of both entities) for at least 18 months, whereby the premiership would be rotated between the two.^[81][82] According to the Financial Times, "under the power-sharing agreement, the PP–DB’s Nikolai Denkov, a former education minister, will become prime minister, with [Mariya] Gabriel serving as his deputy and foreign minister. Gabriel will take over the premiership after nine months as the parties rotate the leadership." The deal was motivated by a desire to end the gridlock that had resulted in multiple inconclusive snap elections over two years, to move closer to fulfilling requirements for membership in the Eurozone, and to implement electronic voting as well as constitutional and comprehensive judicial reform.^[83][84] Kiril Petkov, one of the leaders of PP–DB, nonetheless apologized to those who had voted for him based on a promise of not dealing with GERB.^[85]

On 26 May 2023, Radostin Vasilev, a former ITN MP who founded the Civic Movement Strong Bulgaria, released a video snippet seemingly showing Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev working towards keeping Borisov out of a court case and agreeing to the appointments of key security services with approval of foreign organizations (particularly the EU and US).^[86] He further announced that he was leaving the PP–DB group and would vote against the Denkov-Gabriel rotational government, urging fellow MPs from PP to vote against it as well.^[87] The release of the tapes has triggered calls by GERB MPs to renegotiate certain elements of the agreements with PP–DB, especially about the composition of Denkov's Cabinet.^[88][89] On 27 May, Mariya Gabriel, GERB's PM candidate who had led negotiations with PP, announced that government negotiations between GERB and PP were suspended due to a loss of trust because of the contents of the video tape, which included the leaders of PP admitting they wished to lower GERBs influence within the civil service.^[90] GERB announced they would be willing to restart government talks with PP, if they pledged to form a government composed of "experts, which both parties could trust".^[91] On 27 May, Nikolay Denkov (the PM candidate for PP) confirmed that despite the suspension of talks, he was still in talks with Mariya Gabriel, and that he hoped to re-start official negotiations when the second mandate was officially submitted.^[92]

On 28 May, Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria announced their full support for Nikolay Denkov as PM, indicating that Democratic Bulgaria was inclined to support the government.^[93]

On 29 May, President Rumen Radev handed the second mandate to PP–DB's Prime Minister candidate, Nikolay Denkov, urging Denkov to return the second mandate unfulfilled due to the loss of trust caused by the leaked tapes.^[94] This statement was criticised by PP–DB as unconstitutional^[95] and led to a protest outside the Presidential building, with calls for Radev to be impeached, as well as to curtail the powers of the Presidency.^[96] Counter protests in support of President Radev were also held.^[97]

On 31 May, GERB and PP–DB announced that they re-opened talks about government formation, with meetings taking place between key PP–DB and GERB leaders.^[98]

On 2 June, Nikolay Denkov (PP–DB's PM candidate) confirmed that an agreement had been reached about the composition of the cabinet, with some changes taking place to "take out inflammatory political figures and give the government a more expert look". He also confirmed the new composition was approved by all the constituent members of PP–DB.^[99] A meeting was also held on that day with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, where changes to the constitution were discussed.^[100] After this meeting, DPS confirmed that they would not "impede" the formation of the Denkov-Gabriel government, and that they would support continued talks about making changes to the constitution.^[101]

Denkov's government was approved by the parliament on 6 June.^{[102][103][104][105]}

• Official results count (in Bulgarian)