2024 Tasmanian state election

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly was to expire four years from the return of the writs for its election, which took place on 1 May 2021.^[9] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.^[10] Nominations must close on a date seven to twenty-one days after the issuance of the writ,^[11] and polling day must be a Saturday between 22 and 30 days after nominations close.^[12]

In May 2023, Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruled out holding an early election, in contrast to his predecessor (Peter Gutwein), who called the last state election a year early.^[13] However on 14 February 2024, Rockliff visited with Governor Barbara Baker to request that an election be called a year early after the Liberal government was forced into a minority, a request which was accepted. It was the second consecutive occasion the Premier of Tasmania called a snap election after Gutwein called the previous state election a year early for a similar reason.

Key dates

Important dates in relation to the election are:^[14]

• Wednesday 21 February: Issue of the writs, close of rolls and opening of candidate nominations
• Thursday 29 February: Candidate nominations close
• Friday 1 March: Announcement of nominations in ballot paper order
• Monday 4 March: Early voting opens
• Friday 15 March: Postal voting applications close
• Wednesday 20 March: The People's Forum (Rockliff v White) broadcast on Sky News Australia
• Saturday 23 March: Polling day
• Tuesday 2 April: Final postal votes are received and preferences begin to be distributed

The TEC estimates the following dates for counting progress:^[15]

• Saturday 6 April: Counting ends
• Wednesday 10 April: Final results declared

Previous election

After the snap 2021 election, the Liberal Party successfully won a majority of seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly.^[16] A Liberal MP for Braddon, Adam Brooks, resigned on 14 May 2021 after being charged with firearms offences by Queensland law enforcement. These offences were unauthorised possession of a Category H weapon, unauthorised possession of explosives, and dealing with identity documents. Premier Peter Gutwein said that "I made the decision that under the circumstances of both his mental health and in terms of the fact that he's now facing these new charges, that he won't take his seat in parliament." Greens leader Cassy O'Connor said that "there are now very serious questions to answer about whether or not he was ever considered a legitimate candidate by the Liberal Party", given he resigned "the day the polls [were] declared". Prior claims from women were made before the 2021 election, saying they were catfished by Brooks under the alias "Terry Brooks".^[17] Despite the resignation, the Liberal Party's numbers in the House of Assembly were unchanged, due to the replacing member being a member of the party.

David O'Byrne (left) served as Labor leader for 22 days, resigning over sexual harassment allegations. His predecessor as leader, Rebecca White (right) returned to the leadership role after O'Byrne's resignation.

Rebecca White resigned as Labor leader on 15 May 2021, endorsing shadow treasurer David O'Byrne to replace her.^[18][19] On 15 June 2021, it was announced that O'Byrne had been elected as leader of the Tasmanian Labor Party against opponent Shane Broad, winning 72% of the members' vote and 75% of party delegates.^[20] After allegations of him sexting and kissing a woman without her consent were revealed, David O'Byrne stood aside from his role as leader of the Labor Party for the length of an investigation on 30 June 2021, with Anita Dow acting as leader during the interim.^[21] This was followed by O'Byrne announcing he would resign as leader on 4 July 2021.^[22] On 7 July 2021, Rebecca White was elected as leader after a meeting of the Labor parliamentary caucus.^[23]

Resignation of Peter Gutwein

On 4 April 2022, Premier Peter Gutwein announced he would quit politics, resigning as Premier and as a member for Bass following the appointment of a new Premier.^[24] Jeremy Rockliff, who had been the deputy Liberal leader for 16 years, officially replaced Gutwein as Premier on 8 April 2022, with Bass MP Michael Ferguson as his deputy.^[25]

Restoration of 35 seats in Assembly

On 25 May 2022, Premier Rockliff announced his intention to table a bill in State Parliament to restore the state's House of Assembly to 35 seats before the end of 2022.^[26][27] The bill restored the size of parliament to its original number before the reductions to 25 seats was implemented at the 1998 election. The change will come into effect at this election. The legislation was supported by the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independent Kristie Johnston.^[28] It became law upon its assent by the Governor in December 2022.^[2]

Minority government and a snap election

On 11 May 2023, MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker resigned as members of the Tasmanian Liberal Party and from all parliamentary committees, and served the remainder of their terms as independents on the crossbench. This left the Liberal party in minority government and requiring 7 seats to reach a majority in the next state election.^[29] Tucker and Alexander both agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.^[1]

On 4 January 2024, Tucker threatened to withdraw his support for the government if it failed to act on his demands for mandatory CCTV in all abattoirs in the state and the cessation of planning for a professional sports training facility at Rosny Parklands and a 25,000-seat stadium at Macquarie Point for an Australian Football League (AFL) team in 2028.^[30] In response Rockliff stated in an interview on 2 February, that he would ask the Governor for a snap election if Tucker and Alexander failed to agree on a new governing deal that required the two MPs to not support support proposals or changes to legislation raised by Labor, Green or other independent MPs in parliament without the permission of the government.^[31] On 13 February, Rockliff announced that the Liberal party room had endorsed a snap election due to there being no agreement reached between the government and the independent MPs.^[32] The following day Rockliff visited Governor Barbara Baker at Government House, who accepted his request for an election to be held on 23 March 2024.^[33]

Changes in parliamentary composition

Since the 2021 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament which affected the balance of power in the chamber.

A record 167 candidates nominated.^[34]

Parties

Seven parties are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).^[35] The list of parties registered are:

• Animal Justice
• Labor
• Liberal
• Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
• Greens
• Jacqui Lambie Network
• The Local Network

Status

On 29 February 2024, Rockliff stated that if re-elected, his government would remove the protections from 40,000 hectares of protected native forest, allowing them to be logged.^[36]

On 10 March 2024, Rockliff committed A$12 million to support building a "chocolate experience" centre near the Hobart Cadbury factory, which would include the "world's largest chocolate fountain".^[37]

On 11 March 2024, White put forth plans for a shared-equity housing scheme that would allow couples earning under $200,000 and singles earning under $150,000 to partake in a deal with the government, allowing them to buy a property without a deposit, and the government retaining a 20% share of the property.^[38]

On 14 March 2024, social media erupted after a mock website of the Jacqui Lambie Network was discovered online.^[39] The URL (lambienetwork.com) is said by various media outlets to be shockingly similar to Lambie's true website, (lambienetwork.com.au).^[40] The page is owned by the Liberals as is evident by authorisation details on the page.^[41] The page itself is a mock-up of the style of the valid page, instead criticising Senator Lambie and her candidates for a lack of policies in the upcoming election.^[42] Lambie described herself as "absolutely ropable" when she became aware of the page.^[40] When Premier Rockliff was asked about the page, he stated, "We have every right to point out the policy failings of all political parties."^[43]The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has been contacted about the page.^[40]

On 17 March 2024, Rockliff announced an intention to amend the Tasmanian Consitution to add a clause that would legislate that if an MP left the party on which they were elected, they would vacate their seat of parliament.^[44] The proposed amendment has been criticised by various officials, including former-Liberal turned independent MP, John Tucker. Tucker designated the legislation as "Rocky's rule or else." Among other criticisms.^[45] Rockliff describes it as the only way to ensure a stable government continues throughout the term.^[44] Labor candidate for Franklin, Dean Winter, speculates the legislation may be in attempt to prevent candidate Eric Abetz from diverging from the Liberals in event of disagreement on same-sex conversion laws, of which Abetz has countering views to his party.^[46]

On 20 March 2024, during the Sky News Australia Peoples Forum debate between White and Rockliff, White pledged that if a Labor government was elected in this election, they will construct a public elective surgery hospital in New Town, Tasmania. The hospital is proposed to have 24 overnight beds, along with 8 theatres. The budget is expected to be $160m, and would be completed by 2027.^[47]

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.^[48]

Voting intention

The latest polling by uComms on behalf The Australia Institute indicates that the Liberals will win 13 seats, Labor would win 8, The Greens would win 5, Lambie Network 3, and there would be 6 Independents. This would indicate that neither of the major parties could win a majority, and instead would need to form a minority government with Lambie, Greens or Independent MPs. Although both major parties have expressed a dislike in forming coalition,^[49][50] with Labor outright denying a Greens-Labor coalition,^[51] and the Liberals refusing to trade policies.^[52] The Greens are holding out hope for a coalition, stating they prefer Labor over Liberals in terms of forming a minority government.^[53]

Preferred Premier

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Liberal	127,837	36.67	12.05	14	1
	Labor	101,113	29.00	0.80	10	1
	Greens	48,430	13.89	1.51	5	3
	Lambie Network	23,260	6.67	6.67	3	3
	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	8,126	2.33	0.71	0
	Animal Justice	5,283	1.52	0.11	0
	Local Network	1,028	0.29	0.29	0
	Independents	33,535	9.62	3.40	3	2
Total		348,612	100.00	–	35	10
Valid votes		348,612	93.69
Invalid/blank votes		23,465	6.31	1.39
Total votes		372,077	100.00	–
Registered voters/turnout		408,197	91.15	1.24
Source: TEC, ABC

Primary vote percentages by division

Distribution of seats

The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party was not in a position to form a minority government, causing a leadership election to be held under the party's constitution.^[5] Rockliff reportedly began discussions with elected independents and Jacqui Lambie Network candidates to form a Liberal minority government.^[5] On 10 April, the Liberal Party and Jacqui Lambie Network announced an agreement had been reached for the latter to provide confidence and supply to the government.^[6] The second Rockliff ministry was sworn in by Governor Barbara Baker the following day,^[7] as Rockliff revealed independent MP David O'Byrne had provided a written assurance of confidence and supply votes in parliament, thereby enabling the re-elected government to take office.^[8]