The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley was first elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote defeating Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill and is running for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]
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Background
From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[citation needed]
Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, despite there being three subsequent elections won by Democrats.[citation needed]
In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[citation needed]
The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[citation needed]
Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party.[2][3][4][5]
Republican primary
Candidates
Presumptive nominee
- Josh Hawley, incumbent U.S. senator[6]
Endorsements
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Josh Hawley (R) | $20,525,166 | $15,515,883 | $5,484,798 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Mita Biswas[10]
- December Harmon, member of the Columbia Police Review Board[11]
- Lucas Kunce, nonprofit executive, retired U.S. Marine Corps officer, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[12]
- Karla May, state senator (2019–present)[13]
Withdrawn
- Wesley Bell, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney (running for U.S. House)[14]
Endorsements
- U.S. representatives
- Bill Clay, former U.S. representative from Missouri's 1st congressional district (1969–2001)[15]
- State officials
- Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State (2013–2017)[16]
- Joe Maxwell, former lieutenant governor of Missouri (2000–2005)[17]
- Susan Montee, former Missouri State Auditor (2007–2011)[18]
- State senators
- Jacob Hummel, 4th district (2017–2019)[19]
- State representatives
- LaDonna Appelbaum, 71st district (2019–present)[20]
- Ingrid Burnett, 19th district (2017–present)[21]
- Steve Butz, 81st district (2019–present)[22]
- Kimberly-Ann Collins, 77th district (2021–present)[15]
- Chantelle Nickson-Clark, 67th district (2023–present)[15]
- Adrian Plank, 47th district (2023–present)[15]
- Municipal officials
- Local officials
- Rasheen Aldridge Jr., St. Louis alder from the 14th ward (2023–present) and former state representative from the 78th district (2019–2023)[15]
- Megan Green, president of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen (2022–present)[15]
Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present)[26] (switched endorsement to Bell)[27]
- Individuals
- Jon Bauman, singer and actor[15]
- Andy Cohen, talk show host[28]
- Jon Hamm, actor[28]
- Howie Klein, McGill University professor[29]
- Aaron Parnas, lawyer and TikToker[15]
- Heather Digby Parton, political blogger[29]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[30]
- International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Missouri[a][31]
- Kansas City and St. Louis Building and Construction Trades Councils[32]
- IBEW Local 124[33]
- International Association of Fire Fighters Missouri[b][34][35]
- 3 International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers locals[c][36]
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 9[37]
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Local 83[33]
- International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 12[33]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101[33]
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 3[33]
- Iron Workers Local 10[38]
- 4 Laborers' Union locals[d][33]
- Missouri AFL-CIO[39]
- Missouri State Council of Machinists[40]
- Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association Local 518[33]
- SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council[41]
- SMART Local 2[33]
- 5 Sprinkler Fitters locals[e][33]
- Teamsters Locals 41 and 541[33]
- Tile, Marble, and Terrazzo Workers Local 18[31]
- UFCW Local 655[42]
- United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers Locals 2 and 20[33]
- Organizations
- State representatives
- LaKeySha Frazier-Bosley, 79th district (2019–present)[22]
- Local officials
- Michael Butler, St. Louis Recorder of Deeds (2018–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2020–2023), and former state representative from the 79th district (2013–2019)[49]
- State officials
- Bob Holden, former governor of Missouri (2001–2005)[50]
- State representatives
- Deb Lavender, 98th district (2015–2021, 2023–present)[51]
- Municipal officials
- Jean Peters Baker, Jackson County Prosecutor (2011–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2018–2020), and former state representative from the 39th district (2011)[52]
- Local officials
- Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present) (previously endorsed Kunce)[27]
- Sharon Pace, mayor of Northwoods (2021–present) and former state representative from the 74th district (2009–2017)[51]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| December Harmon (D) | $14,728[f] | $12,759 | $1,969 |
| Lucas Kunce (D) | $7,691,422 | $4,395,006 | $3,303,699 |
| Karla May (D) | $37,059 | $30,755 | $6,304 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mita Biswas | |||
| Democratic | December Harmon | |||
| Democratic | Lucas Kunce | |||
| Democratic | Karla May | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Third-party and independent candidates
Declared
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jared Young (I) | $364,377[g] | $253,727 | $110,650 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[2] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[3] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[56] | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[5] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[57] | Solid R | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Josh Hawley vs. Lucas Kunce
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[h] | Margin of error | Josh Hawley (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group[A] | March 6-8, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College | January 23-28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 30% | 7% | 20% |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 42% | 4% | 8% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 32% | 5% | 17% |
| GQR Research (D)[B] | August 16–19, 2023 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.34% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% |
- Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[h] | Margin of error | Josh Hawley (R) | Wesley Bell (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 34% | 5% | 17% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | ||||
| Democratic | TBD | ||||
| Libertarian | W. C. Young | ||||
| Better Party | Jared Young | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites