Effects of climate change on small island countries

Small island developing states (SIDS) are identified as a group of 38 United Nations (UN) Member States and 20 Non-UN Member/Associate Members that are located in three regions: the Caribbean; the Pacific; and the Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Seas (AIMS) and are home to approximately 65 million people. These nations are far from homogeneous but they do share numerous features, including narrow resource bases, dominance of economic sectors that are reliant on the natural environment, limited industrial activity, physical remoteness, and limited economies of scale.^[2]

Due to close connections between human communities and coastal environments, SIDS are particularly exposed to hazards associated with the ocean and cryosphere, including sea level rise, extreme sea levels, tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves, and ocean acidification. A common feature of SIDS is a high ratio of coastline-to-land area, with large portions of populations, infrastructure, and assets being located along the coast.^[2]

Patterns of increasing hazards, high levels of exposure, and acute vulnerability interact to result in high risk of small island developing states (SIDS) to climate change.^[2]

Small island developing states (SIDS) have long been recognized as being particularly at risk to climate change. These nations are often described as being on the “frontlines of climate change”, as “hot spots of climate change”, or as being “canaries in the coalmine”.^[2] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned already in 2001 that small island countries will experience considerable economic and social consequences due to climate change.^[4]

Sea level rise

Sea level rise is especially threatening to low-lying island nations because seas are encroaching upon limited habitable land and threatening existing cultures.^[7][8] Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of Ocean Physics at Potsdam University in Germany notes "even limiting warming to 2 degrees, in my view, will still commit some island nations and coastal cities to drown."^[9]

Changes in temperatures and rain

Atmospheric temperature extremes have already increased in frequency and intensity in SIDS and are projected to continue along this trend.^[2] Heavy precipitation events in SIDS have also increased in frequency and intensity and are expected to further increase.^[2]

Agriculture and fisheries

Climate change poses a risk to food security in many Pacific Islands, impacting fisheries and agriculture.^[22] As sea level rises, island nations are at increased risk of losing coastal arable land to degradation as well as salination. Once the limited available soil on these islands becomes salinated, it becomes very difficult to produce subsistence crops such as breadfruit. This would severely impact the agricultural and commercial sector in nations such as the Marshall Islands and Kiribati.^[23]

In addition, local fisheries would also be affected by higher ocean temperatures and increased ocean acidification. As ocean temperatures rise and the pH of oceans decreases, many fish and other marine species would die out or change their habits and range. As well as this, water supplies and local ecosystems such as mangroves, are threatened by global warming.^[24]

Economic impacts

SIDS may also have reduced financial and human capital to mitigate climate change risk, as many rely on international aid to cope with disasters like severe storms. Worldwide, climate change is projected to have an average annual loss of 0.5% GDP by 2030; in Pacific SIDS, it will be 0.75–6.5% GDP by 2030. Caribbean SIDS will have average annual losses of 5% by 2025, escalating to 20% by 2100 in projections without regional mitigation strategies.^[2] The tourism sector of many island countries is particularly threatened by increased occurrences of extreme weather events such as hurricanes and droughts.^[24]

Public health

Climate change impacts small island ecosystems in ways that have a detrimental effect on public health. In island nations, changes in sea levels, temperature, and humidity may increase the prevalence of mosquitoes and diseases carried by them such as malaria and Zika virus. Rising sea levels and severe weather such as flooding and droughts may render agricultural land unusable and contaminate freshwater drinking supplies. Flooding and rising sea levels also directly threaten populations, and in some cases may be a threat to the entire existence of the island.^[25]

Others

Other impacts on small islands include:^[26]

• deterioration in coastal conditions, such as beach erosion and coral bleaching, which will likely affect local resources such as fisheries, as well as the value of tourism destinations.
• reduction of already limited water resources to the point that they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods by mid-century, especially on small islands (such as in the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean)
• invasion by non-native species increasing with higher temperatures, particularly in mid- and high-latitude islands.

Greenhouse gas emissions

Small Island Developing States make minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, with a combined total of less than 1%.^[27][3]However, that does not indicate that greenhouse emissions are not produced at all, and it is recorded that the annual total greenhouse gas emissions from islands could range from 292.1 to 29,096.2 [metric] tonne CO₂-equivalent.^[28]

Governments face a complex task when combining grey infrastructure with green infrastructure and nature-based solutions to help with disaster risk management in areas such as flood control, early warning systems, and integrated water resource management.^[29]

Relocation and migration

Climate migration has been discussed in popular media as a potential adaptation approach for the populations of islands threatened by sea level rise. These depictions are often sensationalist or problematic, although migration may likely form a part of adaptation. Mobility has long been a part of life in islands, but could be used in combination with local adaptation measures.^[3]

A study that engaged the experiences of residents in atoll communities found that the cultural identities of these populations are strongly tied to these lands.^[30] Human rights activists argue that the potential loss of entire atoll countries, and consequently the loss of national sovereignty, self-determination, cultures, and indigenous lifestyles cannot be compensated for financially.^[31][32] Some researchers suggest that the focus of international dialogues on these issues should shift from ways to relocate entire communities to strategies that instead allow for these communities to remain on their lands.^[31][30]

Climate resilient economies

Many SIDS now understand the need to move towards low-carbon, climate resilient economies, as set out in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) implementation plan for climate change-resilient development. SIDS often rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, spending an ever-larger proportion of their GDP on energy imports. Renewable technologies have the advantage of providing energy at a lower cost than fossil fuels and making SIDS more sustainable. Barbados has been successful in adopting the use of solar water heaters (SWHs). A 2012 report published by the Climate & Development Knowledge Network showed that its SWH industry now boasts over 50,000 installations. These have saved consumers as much as US$137 million since the early 1970s. The report suggested that Barbados' experience could be easily replicated in other SIDS with high fossil fuel imports and abundant sunshine.^[33]

International cooperation

The governments of several island nations have made political advocacy for greater international ambition on climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation a component of their foreign policy and international alliances.^[2]

The Alliance of Small Island States (ASIS) has been a strong negotiating group in the UNFCCC, highlighting that although they are negligible contributors to anthropogenic climate change, they are among the most vulnerable to its impacts.^[2] The 43 members of the alliance have held the position of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and advocated for this at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, influencing the goals of the Paris Agreement.^[34][35] Marshall Islands Prime Minister Tony deBrum was central in forming the High Ambition Coalition at the conference.^[36] Meetings of the Pacific Islands Forum have also discussed the issue.^[37]

The Maldives and Tuvalu particularly have played a prominent role on the international stage. In 2002, Tuvalu threatened to sue the United States and Australia in the International Court of Justice for their contribution to climate change and for not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol.^[38] The governments of both of these countries have cooperated with environmental advocacy networks, non-governmental organisations and the media to draw attention to the threat of climate change to their countries. At the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference, Tuvalu delegate Ian Fry spearheaded an effort to halt negotiations and demand a comprehensive, legally binding agreement.^[38]

As of March 2022, the Asian Development Bank has committed $3.62 billion to help small island developing states with climate change, transport, energy, and health projects.^[39]

Caribbean

Climate change in the Caribbean poses major risks to the islands in the Caribbean. The main environmental changes expected to affect the Caribbean are a rise in sea level, stronger hurricanes, longer dry seasons and shorter wet seasons.^[40] As a result, climate change is expected to lead to changes in the economy, environment and population of the Caribbean.^[41][42][43] Temperature rise of 2 °C above preindustrial levels can increase the likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall by four to five times in the Bahamas and three times in Cuba and Dominican Republic.^[44] Rise in sea level could impact coastal communities of the Caribbean if they are less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. In Latin America and the Caribbean, it is expected that 29–32 million people may be affected by the sea level rise because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas is expected to be the most affected because at least 80% of the total land is below 10 meters elevation.^[45][46]

East Timor

East Timor, or Timor-Leste, faces numerous challenges as a result of climate change and increased global temperatures. As an island country, rising sea levels threaten its coastal areas, including the capital city Dili.^[47] The country is considered highly vulnerable and is expected to experience worsening cyclones, flooding, heatwaves, and drought. As a large percentage of the population is dependent on local agriculture, these changes are expected to impact industry in the country as well.^[48]

Maldives

Climate change is a major issue for the Maldives. As an archipelago of low-lying islands and atolls in the Indian Ocean, the existence of the Maldives is severely threatened by sea level rise. By 2050, 80% of the country could become uninhabitable due to global warming.^[49] According to the World Bank, with "future sea levels projected to increase in the range of 10 to 100 centimeters by the year 2100, the entire country could be submerged".^[50] The Maldives is striving to adapt to climate change, and Maldivian authorities have been prominent in international political advocacy to implement climate change mitigation.

Pacific islands

Fiji

Climate change in Fiji is an exceptionally pressing issue for the country - as an island nation, Fiji is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, coastal erosion and extreme weather.^[51] These changes, along with temperature rise, will displace Fijian communities and will prove disruptive to the national economy - tourism, agriculture and fisheries, the largest contributors to the nation's GDP, will be severely impacted by climate change causing increases in poverty and food insecurity.^[51] As a party to both the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Climate Agreement, Fiji hopes to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 which, along with national policies, will help to mitigate the impacts of climate change.^[52]

The Human Rights Measurement Initiative finds that the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions moderately (4.6 out of 6) in Fiji.^[53]

Kiribati

The existence of the nation of Kiribati is imperilled by rising sea levels, with the country losing land every year.^[54] Many of its islands are currently or becoming inhabitable due to their shrinking size. Thus, the majority of the country's population resides in only a handful of islands, with more than half of its residents living on one island alone, Tarawa. This leads to other issues such as severe overcrowding in such a small area.^[55] In 1999, the uninhabited islands of Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea both disappeared underwater.^[56] The government's Kiribati Adaptation Program was launched in 2003 to mitigate the country's vulnerability to the issue.^[57] In 2008, fresh water supplies began being encroached by seawater, prompting President Anote Tong to request international assistance to begin relocating the country's population elsewhere.^[58]

Marshall Islands

Climate change in the Marshall Islands is a major issue for the country. As with many countries made up of low-lying islands, the Marshall Islands is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and other impacts of climate change. The atoll and capital city of Majuro are particularly vulnerable, and the issue poses significant implications for the country's population. These threats have prompted Marshallese political leaders to make climate change a key diplomatic issue, who have responded with initiatives such as the Majuro Declaration.The Human Rights Measurement Initiative^[59] finds that the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions in the Marshall Islands greatly (5.0 out of 6). ^[60] Human rights experts reported that the climate crisis has negatively impacted the economy, increased rates of unemployment, and lead to relocations to higher areas or migrations to other countries. ^[60]

Palau

Solomon Islands

Between 1947 and 2014, six islands of the Solomon Islands disappeared due to sea level rise, while another six shrunk by between 20 and 62 per cent. Nuatambu Island was the most populated of these with 25 families living on it; 11 houses washed into the sea by 2011.^[63]

The Human Rights Measurement Initiative^[64] finds that the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions in the Solomon Islands greatly (5.0 out of 6).^[65] Human rights experts provided that the climate crisis has contributed to conflict in communities, negative future socio-economic outlook, and food instability.^[65]

Tuvalu

Tuvalu is a small Polynesian island nation located in the Pacific Ocean. It can be found about halfway between Hawaii and Australia. It is made up of nine tiny islands, five of which are coral atolls while the other four consists of land rising from the sea bed. All are low-lying islands with no point on Tuvalu being higher than 4.5m above sea level.^[66] The analysis of 15+1⁄2 years of sea level data from Funafuti, identified that the sea level rise rate was 5.9 mm per year (in the 15+1⁄2 years to September 2008) and the sea level in the Funafuti area rose approximately 9.14 cm during that period of time.^[67] As well as this, the dangerous peak high tides in Tuvalu are becoming higher causing greater danger. In response to sea level rise, Tuvalu is considering resettlement plans in addition to pushing for increased action in confronting climate change at the UN.^[68] On 10 November 2023, Tuvalu signed the Falepili Union, a bilateral diplomatic relationship with Australia, under which Australia will provide a pathway for citizens of Tuvalu to migrate to Australia, to enable climate-related mobility for Tuvaluans.^[69][70]

São Tomé and Príncipe

Between 1950 and 2010, São Tomé and Príncipe experienced an increase of 1.5 °C in average annual temperature due to climate change.^[71] The country is considered highly vulnerable to its impacts. Climate change is projected to lead to an increased number of warm days and nights, hotter temperatures and increased precipitation.^[72] Sea level rise and saltwater intrusion will be major issues for the islands^[72] and climate change will have major impacts on agriculture in the country.^[73] The government began developing a National Adaptation Plan in 2022 to implement climate adaptation efforts, with support from the United Nations Environment Programme.^[74]

Seychelles

In the Seychelles, the impacts of climate change were observable in precipitation, air temperature and sea surface temperature by the early 2000s. Climate change poses a threat to its coral reef ecosystems, with drought conditions in 1999 and a mass bleaching event in 1998. Water management will be critically impacted.^[4]

Singapore

• Islands First
• Majuro Declaration
• Ambo Declaration
• Tarawa Climate Change Conference

• Chapter 15: Small Islands in IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 2: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability