The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group of experts from Imperial College London studying the COVID-19 pandemic and informing the government of the United Kingdom, and governments and public health agencies around the world.[1][2][3] The team comprises scientists from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the Jameel Institute, the Imperial College Business School and the Department of Mathematics.[4] The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is led by Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of the Jameel Institute and MRC GIDA.[5][6]
| Formation | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Founded at | Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine |
| Headquarters | London, England |
| Services | Reports relating to the COVID-19 pandemic to inform governments and public health agencies around the world |
Membership | 50 scientists |
Leader | Professor Neil Ferguson |
| Affiliations | MRC GIDA, Jameel Institute |
On 16 March 2020 the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two-thirds of the time.[7] On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published.[8] It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with CovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates.[8] As of 2 May 2021, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has produced 43 reports.[9]
Reports
Estimates
11 European countries estimates on 28 March 2020
| Population infected by country | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICCRT's model projection for 28 March[8] | WHO lab-confirmed 29 March | |||||
| Country | Population[citation needed] | Infected (95% range) | Infected (mean %) | Cases (est.) | Cases | Detected (% of pop.) |
| Austria | 8,999,973 | 0.36%–3.1% | 1.1% | 99000 | 8291 | 0.09% |
| Belgium | 11,579,502 | 1.3%–9.7% | 3.7% | 428400 | 9134 | 0.08% |
| Denmark | 5,785,741 | 0.40%–3.1% | 1.1% | 63600 | 2201 | 0.04% |
| France | 65,227,357 | 1.1%–7.4% | 3.0% | 1956800 | 37145 | 0.06% |
| Germany | 83,792,987 | 0.28%–1.8% | 0.72% | 603300 | 52547 | 0.06% |
| Italy | 60,496,082 | 3.2%–26% | 9.8% | 5928600 | 92472 | 0.15% |
| Norway | 5,407,670 | 0.09%–1.2% | 0.41% | 22200 | 3845 | 0.07% |
| Spain | 46,767,543 | 3.7%–41% | 15% | 7015100 | 72248 | 0.15% |
| Sweden | 10,081,948 | 0.85%–8.4% | 3.1% | 312500 | 3447 | 0.03% |
| Switzerland | 8,637,694 | 1.3%–7.6% | 3.2% | 276400 | 13152 | 0.15% |
| United Kingdom | 67,803,450 | 1.2%–5.4% | 2.7% | 1830700 | 17093 | 0.03% |
| Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on 29 March, 10am Central European Time. | ||||||
World estimates for 3 strategies
| Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies.[10] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unmitigated Scenario | Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week | Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week | ||||
| Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | |
| East Asia & Pacific | 2,117,131,000 | 15,303,000 | 92,544,000 | 442,000 | 632,619,000 | 3,315,000 |
| Europe & Central Asia | 801,770,000 | 7,276,000 | 61,578,000 | 279,000 | 257,706,000 | 1,397,000 |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 566,993,000 | 3,194,000 | 45,346,000 | 158,000 | 186,595,000 | 729,000 |
| Middle East & North Africa | 419,138,000 | 1,700,000 | 30,459,000 | 113,000 | 152,262,000 | 594,000 |
| North America | 326,079,000 | 2,981,000 | 17,730,000 | 92,000 | 90,529,000 | 520,000 |
| South Asia | 1,737,766,000 | 7,687,000 | 111,703,000 | 475,000 | 629,164,000 | 2,693,000 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1,044,858,000 | 2,483,000 | 110,164,000 | 298,000 | 454,968,000 | 1,204,000 |
| Total | 7,013,734,000 | 40,624,000 | 469,523,000 | 1,858,000 | 2,403,843,000 | 10,452,000 |