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The Problem of Asia (Alfred Thayer Mahan, 1900)

This map depicts the world as divided by geostrategist Alfred Thayer Mahan in his 1900 piece The Problem of Asia. Asia is divided along the 30 north and 40 north parallels, represented here by green lines. In between the 30th and 40th parallel is what Mahan termed the "Debatable and debated ground," subject to competition between the land powers and sea powers.
  The two allied land powers, the Russian Empire and France
  The portions of Asia above the 40th parallel under effective influence of Russian land power
  The four allied sea powers, Great Britain, the German Empire, Japan, and the United States
  The portions of Asia below the 30th parallel subject to effective control by sea power
  Key waterways identified by Mahan: the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, Turkish Straits, Strait of Gibraltar, and Danish Straits.

Alfred Thayer Mahan was an American Navy officer and president of the U.S. Naval War College. He is best known for his Influence of Sea Power upon History series of books, which argued that naval supremacy was the deciding factor in great power warfare. In 1900, Mahan's book The Problem of Asia was published. In this volume he laid out the first geostrategy of the modern era.

The Problem of Asia divides the continent of Asia into 3 zones:

  • A northern zone, located above the 40th parallel north, characterized by its cold climate, and dominated by land power;
  • The "Debatable and Debated" zone, located between the 40th and 30th parallels, characterized by a temperate climate; and,
  • A southern zone, located below the 30th parallel north, characterized by its hot climate, and dominated by sea power.[1]

The Debated and Debatable zone, Mahan observed, contained two peninsulas on either end (Anatolia and the Korean Peninsula), the Suez Canal, Palestine, Syria, Mesopotamia, two countries marked by their mountain ranges (Iran and Afghanistan), the Pamir Mountains, the Himalayas, the Yangtze, and Japan.[1] Within this zone, Mahan asserted that there were no strong states capable of withstanding outside influence or capable even of maintaining stability within their own borders. So whereas the political situations to the north and south were relatively stable and determined, the middle remained "debatable and debated ground."[1]

North of the 40th parallel, the vast expanse of Asia was dominated by the Russian Empire. Russia possessed a central position on the continent, and a wedge-shaped projection into Central Asia, bounded by the Caucasus Mountains and Caspian Sea on one side and the mountains of Afghanistan and Western China on the other side. To prevent Russian expansionism and achievement of predominance on the Asian continent, Mahan believed pressure on Asia's flanks could be the only viable strategy pursued by sea powers.[1]

South of the 30th parallel lay areas dominated by the sea powers – the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and Japan. To Mahan, the possession of India by the United Kingdom was of key strategic importance, as India was best suited for exerting balancing pressure against Russia in Central Asia. The United Kingdom's predominance in Egypt, China, Malaysia, Australia, Canada and South Africa was also considered important.[1]

The strategy of sea powers, according to Mahan, ought to be to deny Russia the benefits of commerce that come from sea commerce. He noted that both the Turkish Straits and Danish Straits could be closed by a hostile power, thereby denying Russia access to the sea. Further, this disadvantageous position would reinforce Russia's proclivity toward expansionism in order to obtain wealth or warm water ports.[1] Natural geographic targets for Russian expansionism in search of access to the sea would therefore be the Chinese seaboard, the Persian Gulf, and Asia Minor.[1]

In this contest between land power and sea power, Russia would find itself allied with France (a natural sea power, but in this case necessarily acting as a land power), arrayed against Germany, Britain, Japan, and the United States as sea powers.[1] Further, Mahan conceived of a unified, modern state composed of Turkey, Syria, and Mesopotamia, possessing an efficiently organized army and navy to stand as a counterweight to Russian expansion.[1]

Further dividing the map by geographic features, Mahan stated that the two most influential lines of division would be the Suez Canal and Panama Canal. As most developed nations and resources lay above the North–South divide, politics and commerce north of the two canals would be of much greater importance than those occurring south of the canals. As such, the great progress of historical development would not flow from north to south, but from east to west, in this case leading toward Asia as the locus of advance.[1]

Russian irredentism (21st century)

Orthographic projection of Greater Russia/Eurasia and near abroad:
  The Soviet Union in 1945
  (Soviet territories that were never part of the Russian Empire: Tuvan ASSR, Kaliningrad Oblast and Zakarpattia, Lviv, Stanislav and Ternopil regions in west Ukraine, and southern Kurils)
  Additional annexed/occupied territory from the Russian Empire (Grand Duchy of Finland and Congress Poland)
  Maximum extent of the Soviet near abroad, 1955 (Warsaw Pact, Mongolian People's Republic and North Korea)
  Maximum extent of the Russian Empire's sphere of influence after the sale of Alaska, in 1867, despite later Soviet attempts to restore them (Northern Iran, Xinjiang, Manchuria)

After the Dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, it was thought that the Russian Federation gave up on plans of territorial expansion or kin-state nationalism, despite some 25 million ethnic Russians living in neighboring countries outside Russia.[2] Stephen M. Saideman and R. William Ayres assert that Russia followed a non-irredentist policy in the 1990s despite some justifications for irredentist policies—one factor disfavoring irredentism was a focus by the ruling interest in consolidating power and the economy within the territory of Russia.[3] Furthermore, a stable policy of irredentism popular with the electorate was not found, and politicians proposing such ideas did not fare well electorally.[4] Russian nationalist politicians tended to focus on internal threats (i.e. "outsiders") rather than on the interests of Russians outside the federation.[5]

It has been proposed that the annexation of Crimea in 2014 proves Russia's adherence to irredentism today.[6][7][8][9] After the event in Crimea, the Transnistrian authorities requested Russia to annex Transnistria.[10][11][12]

The annexation of Crimea led to a new wave of Russian nationalism, with large parts of the Russian far right movement aspiring to annex even more land from Ukraine, including the unrecognized Novorossiya.[13] Vladimir Socor proposed that Vladimir Putin's speech after the annexation of Crimea was a de facto "manifesto of Greater-Russia Irredentism".[14] However, after international sanctions were imposed against Russia in early 2014, within a year the "Novorossiya" project was suspended: on 1 January 2015, the founding leadership announced the project has been put on hold, and on 20 May the constituent members announced the freezing of the political project.[15][16]

Some Russian nationalists seek to annex parts of the "near abroad", such as the Baltic states,[17] while some fear potential escalation due to Russian irredentist aspirations in northern Kazakhstan also.[18]

Warm-water port

A warm-water port (also known as an ice-free port) is one where the water does not freeze in winter. This is mainly used in the context of countries with mostly cold winters where parts of the coastline freezes over every winter. Because they are available year-round, warm-water ports can be of great geopolitical or economic interest. Such settlements as Dalian in China, Murmansk, Novorossiysk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Vostochny Port[19] in Russia, Odessa in Ukraine, Kushiro in Japan and Valdez at the terminus of the Alaska Pipeline owe their very existence to being ice-free ports. The Baltic Sea and similar areas have ports available year-round beginning in the 20th century thanks to icebreakers, but earlier access problems prompted Russia to expand its territory to the Black Sea.

State Sponsors of Terrorism (U.S. list)

Timeline of the "State Sponsors of Terrorism" list
1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
9012345678901234567890123456789012345678901
 Syria
 Libya
 Iraq Iraq
 South Yemen
 Cuba Cuba
 Iran
 North Korea North Korea
 Sudan

Great powers by date

Timelines of the great powers since the end of the Napoleonic Wars in the early 19th century:

181518781900191919391945c. 2000
 Austria[nb 1] Austria-Hungary[nb 2] Austria-Hungary[nb 3]
 British Empire[nb 4] British Empire[nb 5] British Empire[nb 6] British Empire[nb 7] United Kingdom[nb 9] United Kingdom[nb 10] United Kingdom[nb 11]
 China[nb 12] China[nb 13]
 France[nb 14] France[nb 15] France[nb 16] France[nb 17] France[nb 18] France[nb 19] France[nb 20]
 Prussia[nb 21] Germany[nb 22] Germany[nb 23] Germany[nb 24] Germany[nb 25]
 Italy[nb 26] Italy[nb 27] Italy[nb 28] Italy[nb 29] Italy[nb 30]
 Japan[nb 31] Japan[nb 33] Japan[nb 34] Japan[nb 35]
 Russia[nb 36] Russia[nb 37] Russia[nb 38] Soviet Union[nb 39] Soviet Union[nb 40] Russia[nb 41]
 United States[nb 42] United States[nb 43] United States[nb 44] United States[nb 45] United States[nb 46]

Superpower

The Soviet Union and the United States fulfilled the superpower criteria in the following ways:

Soviet Union Soviet UnionUnited States United States
DemographyHad a population of 286.7 million in 1989, the third largest on Earth behind China and India.[48]Had a population of 248.7 million in 1990, at that time the fourth largest on Earth behind China, India and the Soviet Union.[49]
GeographyLargest state in the world (actually a federal superstate), with a surface area of 22,270,000 km2 (8,600,000 sq mi).[48]Third or Fourth largest country in the world, with an area of 9,630,000 km2 (3,720,000 sq mi).[50]
EconomyGNP of $2.7 trillion in 1990 (equivalent to $6.3 trillion in 2023). Second largest economy in the world.[51] Enormous mineral energy resources and fuel supply. Generally self-sufficient using a minimal amount of imports, although it suffered resource inadequacies such as in agriculture. Large-scale industrial production directed by centralised state organs leading to a high degree of inefficiency. Five-year plans frequently used to accomplish economic goals. Economic benefits such as guaranteed employment, free healthcare and free education provided to all levels of society. Soviet life expectancy and certain indicators of healthcare performance exceeded those of the United States, but often fell below the standards of the most developed Western European states. Economy tied to Central and Eastern-European satellite states.GNP of $5.2 trillion in 1990 (equivalent to $12.1 trillion in 2023). Largest economy in the world.[51] Capitalist market economic theory based on supply and demand in which production was determined by customers' demands, although it also included rising income inequality since 1979.[52] Enormous industrial base and a large and modernized farming industry. Large volume of imports and exports. Large resources of minerals, energy resources, metals and timber. High standard of living with accessibility to many manufactured goods. Home to a multitude of the largest global corporations. United States dollar served as the dominant world reserve currency under Bretton Woods Conference. Allied with G7 major economies. Supported allied countries' economies via such programmes as the Marshall Plan.
PoliticsStrong Marxist–Leninist state with extensive secret police apparatus, organized under a quasi-parliamentary system with strong fusion of powers, with checks and balances for both the executive and the judiciary primarily based on commanding the legislature's confidence. The Supreme Soviet enjoyed de facto parliamentary sovereignty despite a written constitution and nominal federalism as no court was vested with judicial review. As no formal office of President has existed, the standing legislature also served as a collective head of state. The only national-level popular elections were the quinquennial elections to the Supreme Soviet which were yes-or-no votes on candidates handpicked beforehand. However, radical government reforms in 1989 introduced competitive elections, a directly elected executive President and a Constitutional Court, both having rudimentary separation of powers from the existing components of the system. One-party system with the Communist Party having an institutionalized monopoly of power. Permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.Strong liberal constitutional republic, organized under a presidential system with strong separation of powers, with a complicated system of checks and balances exercised between the legislature, the executive and the judiciary. The legislative powers of the United States Congress were limited both by the written constitution and by the federal nature of the national government. Despite the lack of a dedicated Constitutional Court, judicial review of laws has been vested in the Supreme Court by judicial precedent. The President was both head of state and head of government and his cabinet was not required to command congressional confidence. The only national popular elections were the biennial congressional elections. However. the quadrennial presidential election has de facto changed from an indirect election by an Electoral College into a direct, although weighted, popular election. Two-party system between Democrats and Republicans. Permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council along with two allies (France and the United Kingdom).
Foreign relationsStrong ties with Central and Eastern Europe, countries in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Africa, Syria, Iraq (until 1991) and Cuba. Also had an Sino-Soviet alliance with China up until 1961. Supported Marxist–Leninist countries around the world.Strong ties with Western Europe, some countries in Latin America, the Commonwealth of Nations, several East Asian countries and Israel. Supported liberal democracies and anti-communist dictatorships around the world.
MilitaryPossessed largest armed forces and air force in the world and the second largest navy. Possessed bases around the world. Held the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons for the second half of the Cold War. Founder of Warsaw Pact with satellite states in Central and Eastern Europe. Global intelligence network with the GRU and the First Chief Directorate of the KGB. Ties with paramilitary and guerrilla groups in the developing world. Large arms industry production with global distribution.Highest military expenditure in the world,[53] with the world's largest navy surpassing the next 13 largest navies combined[54][55] and an army and air force rivaled only by that of the Soviet Union. Possessed bases around the world, particularly in an incomplete ring bordering the Warsaw Pact to the West, South and East. Largest nuclear arsenal in the world during the first half of the Cold War. Powerful military allies in Western Europe with their own nuclear capabilities. Global intelligence networks with the Intelligence Community. Ties with paramilitary and guerrilla groups in the developing world. Large armament production through defense contractors along with its developed allies for the global market.
MediaConstitutional guarantees for freedom of speech and freedom of the press were made conditional both for fulfilling one's citizen's duties and for conformity with the interests of the government, thereby turning them into effective dead letters. Press explicitly controlled and censored. Promoted through the use of propaganda its socialist ideal that workers of all countries should unite to overthrow capitalist society and what they called the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie and replace it with a socialist society where all means of production are publicly owned.Maintained constitutional guarantees for freedom of speech and freedom of the press, although the ongoing Cold War did lead to a degree of censorship, particularly during the Vietnam War and the Second Red Scare when censorship was the heaviest.
CultureRich tradition in literature, film, classical music and ballet.Rich tradition and worldwide cultural influence in music, literature, film, television, cuisine, art and fashion.

Soviet Union and United States comparison

Common nameSoviet UnionUnited States
Official nameUnion of Soviet Socialist RepublicsUnited States of America
Emblem/Seal
FlagSoviet UnionUnited States
Area22,402,200 km2 (8,649,538 sq mi)9,526,468 km2 (3,794,101 sq mi)[56]
Population286,730,819 (1989)248,709,873 (1990)
Population density13.0/km2 (33.6/sq mi)34/km2 (85.5/sq mi)
CapitalMoscow, RSFSRWashington, D.C.
Largest metropolitan areasMoscow (8,967,332 in 1989)

Leningrad (5,024,000 in 1989)

Kiev (2,587,945 in 1989)

Tashkent (2,072,59 in 1989)

Baku (1,795,000 in 1989)

New York City (7,322,564 in 1990)

Los Angeles (3,485,499 in 1990)

Chicago (2,783,600 in 1990)

Houston (1,697,873 in 1990)

Philadelphia (1,585,577 in 1990)

GovernmentFederal Marxist–Leninist one-party socialist republicFederal presidential constitutional republic
Political partiesCommunist Party of the Soviet UnionDemocratic Party
Republican Party
First leaderVladimir LeninGeorge Washington
Last leader (1991)Mikhail GorbachevGeorge H. W. Bush
EstablishedNovember 7, 1917 (October Revolution)
December 30, 1922 (Formation Treaty)
October 7, 1977 (constitution adopted)
July 4, 1776 (independence declared)
September 3, 1783 (independence recognized)
June 21, 1788 (constitution adopted)
Most common languageRussianEnglish
CurrencySoviet rubleUnited States dollar
GDP (nominal)$2.659 trillion (~$9,896 per capita)$5.79 trillion (~$24,000 per capita)
Intelligence agenciesCommittee for State Security (KGB)

Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU)

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
National Security Agency (NSA)
Military expenditures$217.579 billion (1990)[57]$624.852 billion (1990)[58]
Army sizeSoviet Army (1989)[59][60]
  • 41,580 tanks
  • 8,840 ATGM launchers
  • 45,000 BMP/BTR
US Army (1989)[61]
  • 24,000 tanks
Navy sizeSoviet Navy (1990)[62]
  • 63 ballistic missiles submarines
  • 72 cruise missiles submarines
  • 64 nuclear attack submarines
  • 65 conventional attack submarines
  • 9 auxiliary submarines
  • 6 aircraft carriers
  • 4 battle cruisers
  • 26 cruisers
  • 52 destroyers
  • 33 frigates
  • 200 corvettes
  • 35 amphibious warfare ships
  • 425 patrol crafts
US Navy (1990)[63]
  • 33 ballistic missiles submarines
  • 93 attack submarines
  • 13 aircraft carriers
  • 4 battleships
  • 4 command ships
  • 22 mine warfare
  • 6 patrol boats
  • 43 cruisers
  • 57 destroyers
  • 99 frigates
  • 59 amphibious warfare ships
  • 137 auxiliary ships
Air force sizeSoviet Air Force (1990)[64]
  • 435 bombers
  • 5,665 fighters/attacks
  • 1,015 reconnaissance
  • 84 tankers
  • 620 transports
US Air Force (1990)[65]
  • 327 bombers[66]
  • 4,155 fighters/attacks[67]
  • 533 reconnaissance
  • 618 tankers
  • 1295 transports[64]
Nuclear warheads (total)[68]32,980 (1990)21,392 (1990)
EconomySocialism (specifically Marxism–Leninism), planned economyCapitalism, mixed economy
Economic allianceComeconOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Military allianceWarsaw PactNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization
Countries allied
during the
Cold War
Soviet Republics seat in the United Nations:

Warsaw Pact:

Other allies:

NATO:

Other allies:

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