2012 Catalan regional election

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[4] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.^[a] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Catalans abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[5]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:^[4][6]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.^[7]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 28 November 2010, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 28 November 2014. The election was required to be called no later than 13 November 2014, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 12 January 2015.^[4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[4]

In the 2010 election, Convergence and Union (CiU) was returned to power after 7 years in opposition, as a result of the electoral collapse of all three parties comprising the "Catalan tripartite" government (Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV). Newly-elected Catalan president Artur Mas was able to govern comfortably thanks to his party's large parliamentary representation allowing for punctual support of several parties on different issues, in what was known as a policy of "variable geometry".^[8][9] In 2011, CiU signed several agreements with the People's Party (PP) in order to pass the 2011 and 2012 budgets, as well as for the approval of several spending cuts. In spite of this, the relationship between both parties quickly deteriorated after the 2011 general election, as a result of Mas asking new Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy for greater fiscal autonomy for Catalonia.^[10][11]

On 11 September 2012, a massive pro-independence demonstration marked the Catalan political agenda and re-opened the debate about the right to hold a referendum on the independence of Catalonia,^[12][13][14] as well as the debate about the feasibility of an independent Catalan state and its integration into the European Union. On 25 September 2012, President Artur Mas announced a snap regional election to be held on 25 November and argued, referring to the demonstration, that "this election will not be held to help a party to perpetuate itself in power. It will be held so that the whole of the Catalan population decides democratically and peacefully what will their future be as a nation."^[15] President Mas signed the decree to officially call the Catalan election on 1 October.^[16] Mas' move was criticized as an attempt to try to funnel the popular support for independence seen in the September demonstration into an absolute majority of seats in the election.^[17]

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 2 October 2012, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia.^[18] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.^[19][20][21]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[24]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	CiU	List Convergence and Union (CiU) – Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) – Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC)		Artur Mas	Catalan nationalism Centrism	38.43%	62	Y	[25]
	PSC–PSOE	List Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE)		Pere Navarro	Social democracy	18.38%	28	N	[26]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Alicia Sánchez-Camacho	Conservatism Christian democracy	12.37%	18	N	[27]
	ICV–EUiA	List Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) United and Alternative Left (EUiA)		Joan Herrera	Regionalism Eco-socialism Green politics	7.37%	10	N	[28]
	ERC–CatSí	List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) Catalonia Yes (CatSí)		Oriol Junqueras	Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy	7.00%	10	N	[29] [30]
	SI	List Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI)		Alfons López Tena	Catalan independence	3.29%	4	N	[31]
	C's	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)		Albert Rivera	Social liberalism	3.39%	3	N	[32]
	CUP	List Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP)		David Fernàndez	Catalan independence Anti-capitalism Socialism	New party		N	[33]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 November 2010 to 25 November 2012, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							SI	PxC		Lead
2012 regional election	25 Nov 2012	—	67.8	30.7 50	14.4 20	13.0 19	9.9 13	13.7 21	7.6 9	1.3 0	1.7 0	3.5 3	16.3
Ipsos–Eco/CCMA[p 1][p 2]	25 Nov 2012	31,242	?	34.0 54/57	12.6 16/18	12.0 16/18	9.0 10/12	14.2 20/23	5.9 6/7	–	–	4.7 5/6	19.8
Sigma Dos/The Guardian[p 3]	22 Nov 2012	?	?	? 57/59	? 21/22	? 21/22	–	? 16	–	–	–	–	?
Infortécnica[p 4]	18 Nov 2012	1,450	?	? 60/64	? 16/19	? 18/21	? 11/13	? 12/16	? 8/11	? 0/3	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 5][p 6]	18 Nov 2012	?	59.0	38.1 60/62	14.0 20/21	14.3 19/20	8.8 12	10.5 15	5.8 6/7	–	–	2.9 0/2	24.0
crónica.cat[p 7]	14–16 Nov 2012	1,000	?	? 63/64	? 18/19	? 16/17	? 12	? 14/15	? 5	? 5	–	–	?
GESOP/El Periódico[p 8]	13–16 Nov 2012	800	?	38.0 62/64	12.0 15/17	11.6 15/17	9.8 13/14	12.8 19/20	6.0 6/7	2.5 0/1	–	2.8 0/1	25.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 9]	13–16 Nov 2012	1,150	?	36.6 60/63	15.3 21/23	13.8 20/21	8.1 10/12	9.5 14	4.5 5	2.8 0/2	–	–	21.3
DYM/ABC[p 10]	12–16 Nov 2012	847	?	39.6 60/62	13.2 17	14.0 18	8.3 9/10	12.5 18	4.4 6	–	–	4.8 4/7	25.6
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 11]	12–16 Nov 2012	1,000	58.8	38.2 62/64	13.3 17/19	12.1 16/18	11.0 13/16	10.4 14/15	7.2 7/8	1.4 0	–	2.4 0/2	24.9
Metroscopia/El País[p 12][p 13]	8–15 Nov 2012	2,500	?	37.3 62	12.3 18	13.2 19	7.9 10	12.2 18	5.7 6	–	–	3.0 2	24.1
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 14][p 15]	9–14 Nov 2012	1,153	?	36.8 62/65	10.6 16/17	10.9 16/17	9.2 12/13	11.4 16/17	6.5 8	2.9 0	–	2.6 2	25.4
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 16]	6–9 Nov 2012	1,000	61.3	40.0 64/66	12.0 16/18	12.3 17/18	10.2 12/13	10.9 15/17	7.0 7/8	1.7 0	–	–	27.7
Feedback/RAC 1[p 17]	30 Oct–2 Nov 2012	900	61.0	39.7 64/65	13.1 18	12.7 17/19	10.7 14	10.1 14/15	5.4 6/7	2.1 0	1.7 0	1.9 0	26.6
crónica.cat[p 18]	29 Oct–2 Nov 2012	1,000	?	? 66	? 17	? 18	? 12/13	? 14/15	? 3	? 4/5	–	–	?
GESOP/Tele 5[p 19]	29 Oct–1 Nov 2012	2,000	?	39.0– 40.0 63/65	12.5– 13.5 18/20	11.5– 12.5 17/18	8.5– 9.5 11/12	10.5– 11.5 17/18	5.0– 6.0 5/7	–	–	2.0– 3.0 0/1	26.5
DYM/CEO[p 20]	22–30 Oct 2012	2,500	65.0	43.4 69/71	12.0 15	12.5 18/19	8.0 10	9.5 14	5.1 6	2.0 0	–	2.8 0/3	30.9
CIS[p 21][p 22]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	?	36.8 63/64	12.9 19	11.0 16/17	8.1 11	11.1 17	6.0 7	2.1 1	0.5 0	1.6 0	23.9
GAPS/Ara[p 23]	25–26 Oct 2012	809	?	39.0 64/66	13.3 19/21	12.9 19/20	8.0 9/12	11.2 16/18	5.0 5/6	1.8 0	–	1.5 0	25.7
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 24]	22–26 Oct 2012	1,000	?	40.9 65/66	13.4 18	11.4 17	10.1 12/13	10.6 16	5.6 6	1.8 0	–	–	27.5
GESOP/El Periódico[p 25][p 26]	18–22 Oct 2012	800	?	39.1 64/65	14.0 20/21	11.5 15/16	9.4 13/14	10.2 15/16	5.0 5/6	2.5 0	–	2.4 0	25.1
Feedback/RAC 1[p 27]	15–19 Oct 2012	900	60.0	40.7 67	15.0 21	12.2 17	9.6 12	9.7 14	4.2 4	2.2 0	1.9 0	1.1 0	25.7
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 28]	8–11 Oct 2012	1,000	?	43.2 68/69	15.2 20/21	12.0 17/18	8.6 10/11	9.3 13	3.1 3	2.6 0/2	? 0/2	–	28.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 29]	29 Sep 2012	850	59.8	36.7 58/59	17.1 24/25	13.7 20	9.1 12	9.3 14	3.6 3	–	3.3 3	–	19.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 30]	26–28 Sep 2012	1,225	?	39.2 64/65	16.9 24/25	12.8 18/20	8.5 11	8.2 12	3.3 3	3.0 0/2	–	–	22.3
GESOP/El Periódico[p 31]	26–27 Sep 2012	800	?	41.0 64/65	14.5 20/21	9.9 12/13	7.7 10	11.3 17/18	5.0 5	4.5 5/6	–	–	28.0
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 32]	21–27 Sep 2012	1,200	?	43.0 66/67	15.7 21	11.8 15/16	9.6 12	10.1 13	3.6 4	3.3 3	–	–	27.3
GESOP/Tele 5[p 33][p 34]	15 Sep 2012	2,000	?	? 58/60	? 23/25	? 15/16	? 12/13	? 17/19	? 3/4	? 4/5	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 35]	12–15 Sep 2012	750	60.1	38.0 58/62	15.8 22/25	13.5 20	8.9 11	9.8 15	3.8 4	–	3.4 3	–	22.2
Tàstic/Ara[p 36][p 37]	23 Jul 2012	?	?	34.5 55/57	16.6 26/28	11.2 16/17	9.7 11/13	9.9 15/16	3.4 0/3	3.7 0/4	–	–	17.9
DYM/CEO[p 38]	4–18 Jun 2012	2,500	57.4	36.2 60	16.4 24/25	10.5 15/16	9.5 12/13	9.7 15/16	3.7 3/4	3.5 0/4	–	–	19.8
CDC[p 39]	14 Jun 2012	?	55	? 52/54	? 28/30	? 15	? 13/14	? 17	? 0/3	? 0/3	–	–	?
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 40]	30 May–7 Jun 2012	1,200	?	37.9 58/60	17.7 26/28	11.8 16	9.9 13	9.3 15	3.2 3	3.3 1/3	–	–	20.2
GESOP/El Periódico[p 41][p 42]	7–9 May 2012	800	?	33.9 56/57	18.4 28/29	10.2 13/14	9.7 13	10.6 17/18	4.5 5	2.4 0	–	–	15.5
DYM/CEO[p 43]	6–21 Feb 2012	2,500	?	37.0 62/63	16.5 25/26	11.7 18/19	8.1 10/11	9.6 14/15	4.0 3/4	2.4 0	–	–	20.5
GESOP/El Periódico[p 44][p 45]	16–19 Jan 2012	800	?	35.2 62/63	16.9 27/28	10.5 14/15	8.6 12/13	9.0 13/14	3.8 4	2.3 0	–	–	18.3
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 46]	22–28 Dec 2011	1,200	?	38.5 61/62	16.9 25	12.2 19	10.0 13/14	9.8 15	2.1 0/2	1.5 0	–	–	21.6
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	65.2	29.3 (46)	26.7 (38)	20.7 (31)	8.1 (10)	7.1 (10)	–	–	1.7 (0)	–	2.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 47]	19–21 Jun 2011	800	?	36.7 62/63	17.5 27/28	13.0 19/20	8.3 11/12	6.5 8/9	3.0 3	2.9 0/2	2.4 0	2.5 0/2	19.2
GESOP/CEO[p 48][p 49]	2–17 Jun 2011	2,500	60.6	41.4 68/69	19.0 29	10.2 14/15	8.9 13	5.8 8	2.3 2	2.3 0	1.5 0	1.2 0	22.4
2011 local elections	22 May 2011	—	55.0	27.2	25.1	12.7	8.4	9.0	1.2	1.1	2.3	2.2	2.1
GESOP/CEO[p 50][p 51]	17–27 Jan 2011	2,500	60.4	44.4 71	16.8 24/25	9.6 14/15	8.0 11	6.9 11	2.6 2	2.3 1	–	–	27.6
2010 regional election	28 Nov 2010	—	58.8	38.4 62	18.4 28	12.4 18	7.4 10	7.0 10	3.4 3	3.3 4	2.4 0	–	20.0

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							SI	PxC		?	N	Lead
2012 regional election	25 Nov 2012	—	21.2	10.0	9.0	6.8	9.4	5.2	0.9	1.1	2.4	—	30.4	11.2
Infortécnica[p 4]	18 Nov 2012	1,450	24.2	9.0	5.4	5.8	8.2	3.4	1.0	–	–	28.5	13.4	15.2
GESOP/El Periódico[p 52]	13–16 Nov 2012	800	29.5	8.0	6.3	6.4	12.6	4.4	1.4	0.1	1.5	20.4	4.4	16.9
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 15]	9–14 Nov 2012	1,153	21.3	4.7	4.1	8.8	11.6	5.2	2.3	–	2.2	27.6	5.1	9.7
Feedback/RAC 1[p 17]	30 Oct–2 Nov 2012	900	29.5	8.4	5.2	9.5	11.2	4.7	1.9	0.5	2.2	10.6	8.3	18.3
DYM/CEO[p 20]	22–30 Oct 2012	2,500	28.3	5.0	1.8	5.0	8.9	1.2	1.0	–	–	40.3	4.2	19.4
CIS[p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	27.0	10.0	5.7	6.4	9.0	3.5	1.2	0.3	0.9	18.5	10.9	17.0
GESOP/El Periódico[p 26]	18–22 Oct 2012	800	32.0	7.9	7.1	7.4	9.6	3.9	1.5	–	1.4	16.9	6.1	22.4
Feedback/RAC 1[p 27]	15–19 Oct 2012	900	32.7	8.9	4.6	8.4	10.3	3.2	1.9	0.3	1.1	13.8	7.6	22.4
GESOP/El Periódico[p 53]	26–27 Sep 2012	800	28.9	6.5	3.8	3.9	8.8	2.3	1.8	0.1	–	32.0	6.1	20.1
DYM/CEO[p 38]	4–18 Jun 2012	2,500	25.7	10.1	2.2	9.0	7.7	0.7	1.4	–	–	22.9	11.6	15.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 54]	7–9 May 2012	800	24.3	13.8	3.8	6.8	10.4	1.9	0.5	0.1	–	19.1	9.4	10.5
DYM/CEO[p 43]	6–21 Feb 2012	2,500	30.4	11.0	3.3	8.1	8.0	1.1	1.1	–	–	20.6	8.8	19.4
GESOP/El Periódico[p 45]	16–19 Jan 2012	800	27.0	11.6	4.9	6.4	8.8	1.6	0.9	–	–	16.3	10.6	15.4
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	19.3	17.5	13.6	5.3	4.7	–	–	1.1	–	—	33.2	1.8
GESOP/ICPS[p 55]	19 Sep–27 Oct 2011	2,000	29.8	13.4	5.9	5.0	8.6	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.4	14.3	13.6	16.4
GESOP/El Periódico[p 47]	19–21 Jun 2011	800	28.0	11.3	5.8	6.5	5.1	1.4	2.0	0.5	1.4	15.8	8.8	16.7
GESOP/CEO[p 48]	2–17 Jun 2011	2,500	32.1	12.9	4.6	7.5	4.4	1.4	1.7	–	–	15.4	8.4	19.2
GESOP/CEO[p 50]	17–27 Jan 2011	2,500	34.5	11.5	4.1	7.2	5.7	1.4	1.8	–	–	16.3	7.7	23.0
2010 regional election	28 Nov 2010	—	22.9	10.9	7.3	4.4	4.2	2.0	2.0	1.4	–	—	40.1	12.0

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							SI	PxC	Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	30.8	13.4	7.0	7.9	10.4	3.6	1.2	0.4	3.2	22.1	17.4

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							SI	Other/ None	?	Lead
Metroscopia/El País[p 13]	8–15 Nov 2012	2,500	75.0	2.0	2.0	–	0.0	0.0	–	0.0	21.0	73.0
DYM/CEO[p 20]	22–30 Oct 2012	2,500	78.3	1.3	1.1	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	18.5	77.0
CIS[p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	77.3	3.6	2.7	0.1	1.4	0.1	0.1	0.1	14.6	73.7

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Mas CiU	Navarro PSC	Camacho PP	Herrera ICV–EUiA	Junqueras ERC	Rivera C's	De Tena SI
GESOP/El Periódico[p 52]	13–16 Nov 2012	800	38.9	5.5	6.6	7.4	11.1	5.8	2.1	12.4	10.2	27.8
CIS[p 21]	9–29 Oct 2012	2,983	37.2	6.6	6.1	7.1	6.4	2.9	0.8	9.3	23.6	30.1
GESOP/El Periódico[p 26]	18–22 Oct 2012	800	41.4	6.4	6.1	7.9	7.3	4.8	1.6	16.6	8.1	33.5

Overall

← Summary of the 25 November 2012 Parliament of Catalonia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Convergence and Union (CiU)	1,116,259	30.71	–7.72	50	–12
	Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE)	524,707	14.43	–3.95	20	–8
	Republican Left of Catalonia–Catalonia Yes (ERC–CatSí)	498,124	13.70	+6.70	21	+11
	People's Party (PP)	471,681	12.98	+0.61	19	+1
	Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV–EUiA)	359,705	9.90	+2.53	13	+3
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	275,007	7.57	+4.18	9	+6
	Popular Unity Candidacy–Left Alternative (CUP)	126,435	3.48	New	3	+3
	Platform for Catalonia (PxC)	60,107	1.65	–0.75	0	±0
	Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI)	46,838	1.29	–2.00	0	–4
	Blank Seats (EB)	28,288	0.78	+0.18	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	20,861	0.57	+0.12	0	±0
	Pirates of Catalonia (Pirata.cat)	18,219	0.50	+0.29	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	14,614	0.40	+0.23	0	±0
	Hartos.org (Hartos.org)	11,702	0.32	New	0	±0
	Democratic Way (VD)	5,984	0.16	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	2,582	0.07	+0.04	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	826	0.02	–0.03	0	±0
	Socialists and Republicans (SyR)	333	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		52,898	1.46	–1.47
Total		3,635,170			135	±0
Valid votes		3,635,170	99.10	–0.19
Invalid votes		33,140	0.90	+0.19
Votes cast / turnout		3,668,310	67.76	+8.98
Abstentions		1,745,558	32.24	–8.98
Registered voters		5,413,868
Sources[19][34][35]

Distribution by constituency

Opinion poll sources

Other