2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012 and elected the four U.S. representatives from the state of Utah, an increase of one seat in reapportionment following the 2010 United States census. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election and an election to the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on June 26, 2012.[1]

2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah

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All 4 Utah seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Last election21
Seats won31
Seat changeIncrease1Steady
Popular vote647,873324,309
Percentage64.86%32.47%
SwingIncrease3.82%Decrease1.6%

Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in Utah, 2012[2]
PartyVotesPercentageSeats BeforeSeats After+/–
Republican647,87364.86%23+1
Democratic324,30932.47%11-
Constitution14,4811.45%00-
Libertarian6,4390.64%00-
Independent5,7950.58%00-
Totals998,897100.00%34+1

Redistricting

In Utah, the redistricting process was controlled by members of the Republican Party, who formed a majority on the State Legislature's redistricting committee. The plan passed October 2011 divides Salt Lake County among three districts, which Republicans argued would require Utah's U.S. Representatives focus on both urban and rural issues.[3][4] Jim Dabakis, the chair of the Utah Democratic Party, argued that the map constituted a gerrymander designed to benefit the Republican Party.[5]

District 1

Republican incumbent Rob Bishop, who has represented Utah's 1st congressional district since 2003, ran for re-election, having decided against running for governor.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Leonard "Joe" Fabiano, business entrepreneur and candidate for senate in 2010
  • Jacqueline Smith, homemaker and Tea Party activist
Withdrawn

Results

Rob Bishop became the official Republican candidate April 21, 2012 at the State Republican Convention.

Republican convention, 1st round results[7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRob Bishop 786 81.1
RepublicanJacqueline Smith15816.3
RepublicanLeonard Fabiano252.6
Total votes969 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Donna McAleer, management consultant and West Point graduate
Eliminated in primary
  • Ryan Combe, small business owner

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticDonna McAleer 3,881 66.6
DemocraticRyan Combe1,94433.4
Total votes5,825 100.0

Constitution primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Sherry Phipps

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Bishop (R)
Donna
McAleer (D)
Sherry
Phipps (C)
Undecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 26–November 1, 2012194 (RV)±7.0%70%15%2%10%
Key Research/Brigham Young UniversityOctober 9–13, 2012407 (LV)±7.0%62%20%18%

Results

Utah's 1st congressional district, 2012
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRob Bishop (incumbent) 175,487 71.5
DemocraticDonna M. McAleer60,61124.7
ConstitutionSherry Phipps9,4303.8
Total votes245,528 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson, who has represented Utah's 2nd congressional district since 2001, sought re-election in the new 4th district.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Dean Collinwood
  • Mike Small[8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined

Results

Republican convention, 1st round results[18]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChris Stewart 365 39.6
RepublicanDavid Clark 234 25.0
RepublicanMilton Ray Hanks 121 13.0
RepublicanHoward Wallack 51 5.5
RepublicanCherilyn Eagar 48 5.2
RepublicanJason Buck 42 4.5
RepublicanBob Fuehr 24 2.6
RepublicanChuck Williams 16 1.7
RepublicanJeramey McElhaney 14 1.5
RepublicanJohn W. Willoughby60.7
RepublicanEdward Mayerhofer00.0
Total votes921 100.0
Republican convention, 2nd round results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChris Stewart 386 43.9
RepublicanDavid Clark 283 32.2
RepublicanMilton Ray Hanks657.4
RepublicanJeramey McElhaney637.2
RepublicanJason Buck576.5
RepublicanBob Fuehr252.8
Total votes879 100.0
Republican convention, 3rd round results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChris Stewart 511 61.6
RepublicanDavid Clark31938.4
Total votes830 100.0

Constitution primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jonathan D. Garrard

Independents

Independent candidate Charles Kimball also filed.

General election

Endorsements

Jay Seegmiller (D)
Organizations
Chris Stewart (R)
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Seegmiller (D)
Chris
Stewart (R)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 26–November 1, 2012229 (RV)±6.5%28%44%5%22%
Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake TribuneOctober 29–31, 2012625 (LV)±4.0%28%55%5%12%
Key Research/Brigham Young UniversityOctober 9–13, 2012100 (LV)±10.0%20%46%34%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[21]Safe R (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[22]Safe R (flip)November 2, 2012
Roll Call[23]Safe R (flip)November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24]Safe R (flip)November 5, 2012
NY Times[25]Safe R (flip)November 4, 2012
RCP[26]Safe R (flip)November 4, 2012
The Hill[27]Safe R (flip)November 4, 2012

Results

Utah's 2nd congressional district, 2012
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChris Stewart 154,523 62.2
DemocraticJay Seegmiller83,17633.5
ConstitutionJonathan D. Garrard5,0512.0
IndependentJoseph Andrade2,9711.2
IndependentCharles E. Kimball2,8241.1
Total votes248,545 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 3

Jason Chaffetz, was seeking a third term in representing Utah's 3rd congressional district;[28]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Brian Jenkins
  • Lynn D. Wardle
Withdrawn
  • Kurt Bradburn.[29]
  • Leonard "Joe" Fabiano, business entrepreneur and candidate for senate in 2010[30]

Results

Republican convention, 1st round results[31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJason Chaffetz 710 75.0
RepublicanLynn D. Wardle20822.0
RepublicanBrian Jenkins293.0
Total votes947 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Soren Simonsen, Salt Lake City Council Chair[32]
Eliminated in primary
  • Richard Clark

General election

Endorsements

Soren Simonsen (D)
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Chaffetz (R)
Soren
Simonsen (D)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 26–November 1, 2012232±6.4%68%18%3%10%
Key Research/Brigham Young UniversityOctober 9–13, 2012100 (LV)±4.4%68%15%17%

Results

Utah's 3rd congressional district, 2012
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJason Chaffetz 198,828 76.6
DemocraticSoren D. Simonsen60,71923.4
Total votes259,547 100.0
Republican hold

District 4

Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Matheson, who has represented Utah's 2nd congressional district since 2001 and had considered running for governor[34] or for the U.S. Senate,[35] sought re-election to the House in Utah's new 4th congressional district after his previous seat was split up by the redistricting.[36][37]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Cobb
Mia
Love
Stephen
Sandstrom
Carl
Wimmer
OtherUndecided
Mason-DixonApril 9—11, 2011625 (LV)± 4.0%23%14%35%28%
Dan Jones & AssociatesDecember 19—21, 2011341 (RV)± 5.3%3%8%15%15%19%41%

Results

In the Republican convention, held on April 21, 2012, Love received 70.4% of the vote (she needed more than 60% to avoid a primary).[38]

Republican convention, 1st round results[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMia Love 442 53.1
RepublicanCarl Wimmer 256 30.8
RepublicanSteve Sandstrom819.7
RepublicanJay Cobb526.3
RepublicanKenneth Gray10.1
Total votes863 100.0
Republican convention, 2nd round results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMia Love 551 70.5
RepublicanCarl Wimmer23129.5
Total votes782 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jim Vein
Withdrawn
  • Ken Larsen, medical researcher

Justice primary

Candidates

Withdrawn
  • Torin Nelson

General election

Campaign

Despite beginning her campaign at a significant name recognition disadvantage to Matheson, Love was able to mount a strong challenge. This was in part fueled by a prime time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention where she impressed many with her backstory of a being the daughter of Haitian immigrants whose parents "Immigrated to the U.S. with $10 in their pocket" and her themes of self-reliance, small government and fiscal responsibility.[40] However she was later hit by claims that she was technically an Anchor Baby, despite having seemingly backing the deportation of the US-born children of illegal immigrants.[41]

Facing a district largely new to him, Matheson ran ads showcasing his independent credentials and airing clips of Love voicing support for cutting the Department of Education and privatizing Social Security. Despite the NRCC running ads trying to tie him to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, Matheson's favorability rating remained at around 60% throughout the campaign.[42]

Endorsements

Jim Matheson (D)
Polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Matheson (D)
Mia
Love (R)
Jim
Vein (L)
Undecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 26–November 1, 2012414 (RV)±4.8%43%48%3%6%
Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake TribuneOctober 29–31, 2012625 (LV)±4.0%40%52%2%6%
Key Research/Brigham Young UniversityOctober 9–13, 2012407 (LV)±7.0%43%43%14%
Global Strategy (D)October 9–10, 2012407 (LV)±4.9%48%41%11%
Dan Jones & AssociatesSeptember 26–29, 2012414 (RV)±5.0%43%49%8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Love/NRCC)September 10–11, 2012400 (LV)±4.9%36%51%13%
Global Strategy (D)July 26–29, 2012400 (LV)±4.9%51%33%16%
Dan Jones & AssociatesJune 15–21, 2012379 (RV)±5.1%53%38%1%8%
Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake TribuneApril 9–11, 2012625 (LV)±4.0%45%42%13%
Dan Jones & AssociatesDecember 19–21, 2011341 (RV)±5.3%53%36%4%12%

An early poll published by the Deseret News on Dec 25, 2011 showed Jim Matheson leading all potential opponents.[48]

Hypothetical polling
With Cobb
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Matheson (D)
Jay
Cobb (R)
Undecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesDecember 19–21, 2011341 (RV)±5.3%54%35%11%
With Sandstrom
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Matheson (D)
Stephen
Sandstrom (R)
Undecided
Mason-DixonApril 9–11, 2012625 (LV)±4.0%45%42%13%
Dan Jones & AssociatesDecember 19–21, 2011341 (RV)±5.3%50%41%10%
With Wimmer
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Matheson (D)
Carl
Wimmer (R)
Undecided
Mason-DixonApril 9–11, 2012625 (LV)±4.0%46%45%9%
Dan Jones & AssociatesDecember 19–21, 2011341 (RV)±5.3%52%41%7%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportLean RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg[22]Tilts RNovember 2, 2012
Roll Call[23]Lean RNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24]Lean RNovember 5, 2012
NY Times[25]TossupNovember 4, 2012
RCP[26]TossupNovember 4, 2012
The Hill[27]TossupNovember 4, 2012

Results

Matheson narrowly defeated the Love in the general election by only 768 votes.[49] If Love had won the seat, she would have become the first African-American Republican woman to sit in the House.[50]

Utah's 4th congressional district, 2012
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJim Matheson 119,803 48.8
RepublicanMia Love119,03548.5
LibertarianJim L. Vein6,4392.6
Total votes6,439 100.0
Democratic win (new seat)

References