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2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
← 2012November 6, 20182024 →
Turnout55.0%
 
NomineeMartin HeinrichMick RichGary Johnson
PartyDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
Popular vote376,998212,813107,201
Percentage54.09%30.53%15.38%
Heinrich:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Rich:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term.[1] His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for President of the United States.

The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018.[2] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results[3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMartin Heinrich (incumbent) 152,145 100%
Total votes152,145 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Mick Rich, businessman[4]

Declined

Results

Republican primary results[3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMick Rich 67,502 100%
Total votes67,502 100%

Libertarian primary

On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement.[8] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.[9]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew nomination

Results

Libertarian primary results[3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianAubrey Dunn 623 100%
Total votes623 100%

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Martin Heinrich (D)
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Mick Rich (R)
Governors
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Gary Johnson (L)
Governors
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State Representatives
Local officeholders
Journalists
Newspapers
Organizations
  • Libertarian Youth Caucus[37]
  • New Mexico Open Primaries[38]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[39]Safe DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections[40]Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41]Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Fox News[42]Likely DNovember 1, 2018
CNN[43]Safe DNovember 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[44]Safe DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[45]Safe DNovember 6, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Gary
Johnson (L)		Undecided
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%47%33%11%9%
Carroll Strategies Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback MachineNovember 1, 20181,202± 2.8%51%38%8%3%
Research & Polling, Inc.October 26 – November 1, 2018993± 3.1%51%31%12%6%
Emerson CollegeOctober 24–26, 2018936± 3.4%48%32%16%5%
Pacific Market ResearchOctober 19–24, 2018400± 4.9%40%28%22%11%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)September 20–24, 2018932–36%10%28%26%
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)September 16–17, 2018900–38%10%28%24%
Research & Polling, Inc.September 7–13, 2018966± 3.1%47%26%16%–
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback MachineAugust 2018900–38%13%28%21%
Emerson CollegeAugust 17–18, 2018500± 4.6%39%11%21%30%
GQR Research (D-TMI) Archived August 25, 2018, at the Wayback MachineAugust 2–5, 2018500± 4.4%48%33%17%2%
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)August 1–5, 2018800± 3.5%47%29%22%–
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)July 31 – August 2, 2018500± 4.5%44%30%20%6%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback MachineJuly 2018500–39%25%23%12%
Hypothetical polling
with Mick Rich
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)July 31 – August 2, 2018500± 4.5%55%37%8%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)July 2018500–47%29%–
with Gary Johnson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Gary
Johnson (L)		Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)August 1–5, 2018800± 3.5%50%38%–
In Lux Research (L)July 28–29, 2018525–40%42%–
with Aubrey Dunn
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martin
Heinrich (D)		Mick
Rich (R)		Aubrey
Dunn (L)		Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)July 2018500–47%30%7%16%
Carroll StrategiesJune 15–16, 20181,199± 2.8%50%39%5%6%

Results

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticMartin Heinrich (incumbent) 376,998 54.09% +3.08%
RepublicanMick Rich212,81330.53%-14.75%
LibertarianGary Johnson107,20115.38%N/A
Total votes697,012 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

County results

Vote breakdown by county[46]
Martin Heinrich
Democrat		Mick Rich
Republican		Gary Johnson
Libertarian		Total
CountyVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes
Bernalillo140,08258.1%61,93225.7%39,27416.3%241,288
Catron55026.9%1,07558.4%21711.8%1,842
Chaves5,27931.7%8,72752.4%2,66616.0%16,672
Cibola3,92455.1%1,84225.9%1,35519.0%7,121
Colfax2,33349.9%1,61534.5%73115.6%4,679
Curry2,79327.4%5,89657.9%1,49814.7%10,187
De Baca26733.2%34242.5%19624.4%805
Doña Ana34,65157.0%18,10129.8%8,02913.2%60,781
Eddy4,83430.7%8,82656.0%2,09513.3%15,755
Grant6,76357.3%3,59830.5%1,44212.2%11,803
Guadalupe1,09465.2%29217.4%29217.4%1,678
Harding19841.2%19941.4%8417.5%481
Hidalgo79049.5%60738.1%19812.4%1,595
Lea3,33124.1%8,88264.2%1,62811.8%13,841
Lincoln2,61733.3%4,12252.5%1,11114.2%7,850
Los Alamos5,79856.3%2,57625.0%1,92618.7%10,300
Luna3,00548.9%2,31337.7%82313.4%6,141
McKinley12,40967.5%2,91515.9%3,04916.6%18,373
Mora1,56467.4%37216.0%38616.6%2,322
Otero6,37037.2%8,46049.4%2,29113.4%17,121
Quay1,01632.9%1,53449.7%53717.4%3,087
Rio Arriba8,77368.8%1,94515.3%2,03516.0%12,753
Roosevelt1,27727.6%2,60656.3%75016.2%4,633
San Juan12,48533.4%18,00248.2%6,87618.4%37,363
San Miguel6,60971.6%1,29814.1%1,32314.3%9,230
Sandoval28,19850.9%17,78532.1%9,39717.0%55,380
Santa Fe49,99474.4%9,54614.2%7,64211.4%67,182
Sierra1,91740.5%2,04843.3%76716.2%4,732
Socorro3,40954.7%1,70027.3%1,12918.1%6,238
Taos10,83874.7%1,55610.7%2,11214.6%14,506
Torrance1,98236.9%2,43345.3%95117.7%5,366
Union33422.8%87860.0%25217.2%1,464
Valencia11,51447.1%8,79035.0%4,13916.9%24,443
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts.[47]

DistrictHeinrichRichJohnsonRepresentative
1st57.55%26.28%16.17%Deb Haaland
2nd45.56%40.17%14.27%Xochitl Torres Small
3rd57.52%27.0%15.48%Ben Ray Luján

References

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018.
Official campaign websites
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