2022 Chilean constitutional referendum

According to the itinerary originally proposed for the constituent process, it was estimated that the plebiscite to approve or reject the text of the new Constitution would take place in September 2021, if the Constitutional Convention met its term of nine months and did not request the three-month extension, or in March 2022, if it requested such an extension.^[7] In addition, the exit plebiscite could not be held 60 days before or after another election, nor could it be held in January or February, which would have placed it on the first Sunday in March if an extension were requested.^[8][9]

As a result of the postponement of the first plebiscite to 25 October 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the date of the exit plebiscite was also modified. It was projected to take place during the third quarter of 2022, in September at the latest.^[10] In April 2022, it was announced that the referendum would be held on 4 September.^[1]

Article 142 of the 1980 Political Constitution of the Republic of Chile indicates the text of the ballot in the plebiscite:^[8]

In the aforementioned plebiscite, the citizens will have an electoral card that will contain the following question ... : "Do you approve the text of the New Constitution proposed by the Constitutional Convention?". Under the question posed there will be two horizontal stripes, one next to the other. The first one will have the expression "Approve" at the bottom and the second one, the word "Reject", so that the voter can mark his preference over one of the alternatives.

— Political Constitution of the Republic of Chile of 1980, article 142

There was no contingency plan in place as to what will happen if the new constitution is rejected. Chilean human rights lawyer Dinka Benítez stated that "given that 80 percent of those who voted in the plebiscite want a new constitution, it seems that Chile … will necessarily have to find a way to have a new constitution" in some form, and that a "reject" vote would not necessarily be a death knell for constitutional reform.^[11]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading option's color. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the options in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organizations.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Approve	Reject	?	Lead
2022 Chilean national plebiscite	4 Sep 2022	—	37.3	60.6	2.1	–23.3
Cadem[p 2]	31 Aug–2 Sep 2022	1,415	40	45	15	–5
UDD[p 3]	17–19 Aug 2022	8,691	39	49	12	–10
Cadem[p 4]	17–19 Aug 2022	1,007	37	46	17	–9
AtlasIntel[p 5]	16–19 Aug 2022	2,735	39.0	54.8	6.2	–15.8
Activa[p 6]	16–19 Aug 2022	2,089	32.9	45.8	21.3	–12.9
Signos[p 7]	14–19 Aug 2022	1,095	42.6	45.9	11.5	–3.3
Cadem[p 8]	10–12 Aug 2022	1,015	38	46	16	–8
Activa[p 9]	10–12 Aug 2022	1,514	33.9	44.4	21.7	–10.5
Signos[p 10]	7–11 Aug 2022	728	38.2	43.9	17.9	–5.7
Data Influye[p 11]	5–7 Aug 2022	1,650	43	48	9	–5
Cadem[p 12]	3–5 Aug 2022	704	37	47	16	–10
Activa[p 13]	2–5 Aug 2022	1,224	29.9	44.5	25.6	–14.6
Signos[p 14]	31 Jul–4 Aug 2022	715	38.1	45.8	16.1	–7.7
MORI/FIEL[p 15]	28 Jul–2 Aug 2022	1,500	44	47	9	–3
Criteria[p 16]	29 Jul–1 Aug 2022	1,000	36	45	19	–9
Cadem[p 17]	27–29 Jul 2022	706	38	48	14	–10
Signos[p 18]	24–28 Jul 2022	778	37.0	47.3	15.7	–10.3
Criteria[p 19]	22–26 Jul 2022	1,512	36	44	20	–8
Cadem[p 20]	20–22 Jul 2022	701	39	47	14	–8
Activa[p 21]	19–22 Jul 2022	1,241	30.1	46.0	23.9	–15.9
UDD[p 22]	20–21 Jul 2022	8,542	38	50	12	–12
Signos[p 23]	18–21 Jul 2022	701	35.4	47.8	16.8	–12.4
Cadem[p 24]	13–15 Jul 2022	702	37	52	11	–15
Signos[p 25]	11–14 Jul 2022	703	29.6	50.7	19.7	–21.1
Cadem[p 26]	6–8 Jul 2022	708	35	53	12	–18
Activa[p 27]	5–8 Jul 2022	1,205	28.0	46.3	25.7	–18.3
Signos[p 28]	4–7 Jul 2022	710	32.4	50.1	17.5	–17.7
Feedback[p 29]	4–6 Jul 2022	2,842	34	2	14	–18
Data Influye[p 30]	1–4 Jul 2022	1,555	41	46	13	–5
Criteria[p 31]	30 Jun–4 Jul 2022	1,018	31	48	21	–17
Cadem[p 32]	29 Jun–1 Jul 2022	707	34	51	15	–17
UDD[p 33]	28–29 Jun 2022	1,044	38	52	10	–14
Signos[p 34]	26–29 Jun 2022	841	29.9	46.5	23.6	–16.6
Cadem[p 35]	22–24 Jun 2022	702	33	51	16	–18
Activa[p 36]	20–24 Jun 2022	1,005	25.0	44.4	30.6	–19.4
MORI/FIEL[p 37]	9–24 Jun 2022	1,000	31	35	34	–4
Signos[p 38]	18–22 Jun 2022	803	31.5	46.5	22.0	–15.0
Cadem[p 39]	15–17 Jun 2022	703	37	46	17	–9
Cadem[p 40]	8–10 Jun 2022	702	39	43	18	–4
Activa[p 41]	6–10 Jun 2022	1,247	29.7	41.9	28.4	–12.2
Cadem[p 42]	2–3 Jun 2022	702	42	45	13	–3
Criteria[p 43]	27–31 May 2022	1,059	31	39	30	–8
CEP[p 44]	13 Apr–29 May 2022	1,355	25	27	48	–2
Data Influye[p 45]	27–29 May 2022	1,451	40	45	15	–5
Cadem[p 46]	25–27 May 2022	704	37	45	18	–8
Activa[p 47]	23–27 May 2022	1,015	28.5	45.2	26.3	–16.7
Cadem[p 48]	18–20 May 2022	708	37	46	17	–9
Datavoz[p 49]	11–17 May 2022	1,337	28	47	25	–19
Cadem[p 50]	11–13 May 2022	706	38	46	16	–8
Activa[p 51]	10–13 May 2022	1,016	27.1	45.5	27.4	–18.4
Black&White[p 52]	9–11 May 2022	?	32	52	17	–20
Cadem[p 53]	4–6 May 2022	705	35	48	17	–13
Data Influye[p 54]	29 Apr–2 May 2022	1,651	37	46	17	–9
Criteria[p 55]	28 Apr–2 May 2022	1,640	31	39	30	–8
Cadem[p 56]	27–29 Apr 2022	703	36	46	18	–10
Activa[p 57]	25–29 Apr 2022	1,043	29.1	40.5	30.4	–11.4
La Cosa Nostra[p 58]	9–26 Apr 2022	600	40	58	2	–18
Studio Publico[p 59]	23–25 Apr 2022	?	30.4	59.7	9.9	–29.3
UDD[p 60]	24 Apr 2022	?	32	41	26	–9
Cadem[p 61]	20–22 Apr 2022	704	37	46	17	–9
Cadem[p 62]	12–14 Apr 2022	702	38	45	17	–7
Criteria/Zoom[p 63]	12–14 Apr 2022	?	31	32	37	–1
Activa[p 64]	11–14 Apr 2022	1,326	32.2	36.8	31.0	–4.6
Cadem[p 65]	6–7 Apr 2022	707	39	44	17	–5
UDD[p 66]	5–6 Apr 2022	1,002	33	36	31	–3
Criteria[p 67]	31 Mar–4 Apr 2022	813	30	33	37	–3
Data Influye[p 68]	1–3 Apr 2022	1,671	39	38	23	+1
Cadem[p 69]	30 Mar–1 Apr 2022	707	40	46	14	–6
Activa[p 70]	28 Mar–1 Apr 2022	1,521	32.0	35.8	32.2	–3.8
Datavoz[p 71]	15–31 Mar 2022	1,650	40.9	48.0	11.2	–7.1
Studio Publico[p 72]	25–28 Mar 2022	914	34.9	53.6	11.6	–18.7
Cadem[p 73]	23–25 Mar 2022	704	46	36	18	+10
UDD[p 74]	22–23 Mar 2022	?	43	38	21	+6.5
Activa[p 75]	18–19 Mar 2022	1,004	37.7	31.2	31.1	+6.5
Cadem[p 76]	16–18 Mar 2022	702	46	33	21	+13
Feedback[p 77]	16–18 Mar 2022	1,804	41	44	16	–3
Cadem[p 78]	9–11 Mar 2022	708	42	35	23	+7
UDD[p 79]	7–8 Mar 2022	1,028	40	36	24	+4
Data Influye[p 80]	3–6 Mar 2022	1,466	45	31	24	+14
Cadem[p 81]	2–4 Mar 2022	713	44	37	19	+7
Criteria[p 82]	25–28 Feb 2022	872	36	21	43	+15
Studio Publico[p 83]	22–28 Feb 2022	1,158	34.5	48.1	17.5	–13.6
Cadem[p 84]	23–25 Feb 2022	712	47	32	21	+15
MORI/FIEL[p 85]	5–16 Feb 2022	1,000	36	17	47	+19
Cadem[p 86]	9–11 Feb 2022	706	47	38	15	+9
Datavoz[p 87]	22 Jan–7 Feb 2022	1,413	46	36	17	+10
Studio Publico[p 88]	25–31 Jan 2022	1,037	40.5	35.8	23.6	+4.7
UDD[p 74]	30 Jan 2022	?	42	25	33	+17
Cadem[p 89]	26–28 Jan 2022	707	56	33	11	+33
UDD[p 74]	16 Jan 2022	?	42	21	37	+21
UDD[p 74]	28 Nov 2021	?	37	28	35	+9
UDD[p 74]	14 Nov 2021	?	37	27	36	+10
2020 Chilean national plebiscite	25 Oct 2020	—	77.9	21.6	0.5	+56.3

Chileans' views on the new constitution changed throughout the process of the Constitutional Convention. When the Constitutional Convention started meeting in August 2021, participants in a national poll were asked if they believed that the new constitution resulting from the process would help solve Chile's problems, have no effect, or worsen the current situation, 49% said it would have a positive effect, and 15% said it would have a negative effect. By May 2022, 36% of Chileans said that they believed the new constitution would have a positive effect, a drop from the previous poll.^[19] In a study carried out by the independent think tank Espacio Público-IPSOS in July 2022, 38% of respondents believed that the new constitution would bring about several negative changes for the country, while 23% believed it would bring positive changes.^[20]

Doubts about the representativeness of the Constitutional Convention's members may have led to its rejection. Respondents to Espacio Público-IPSOS' survey felt the members of the Constitutional Convention were unrepresentative of Chileans as a whole; 59% of respondents said they did not believe the composition of the Constitutional Convention was a good representation of the diversity of Chilean society, and 63% of respondents said they did not feel represented by the Constitutional Convention.^[20]

Chileans were also skeptical of particular elements of the new constitution. The indigenous justice system, the plurinational state, and the role of Congress created the most concern. The language of the new constitution declared, "Chile is a Plurinational and Intercultural State that recognizes the coexistence of diverse nations and peoples within the framework of the unity of the State."^[21] Regarding an indigenous justice system, the new constitution also declared that "pre-existing indigenous peoples and nations, as well as their members, are entitled to the full exercise of their collective and individual rights by virtue of their self-determination."^[21] These new elements generated fears about internal divisions and competing sources of justice to the generally centrist Chilean citizenry.^[22][20] Participants believed that the new constitution would worsen the sale and consumption of drugs, unemployment, poverty and political corruption.^[20][23]

According to NACLA, right-wing groups and conservative media in Chile led throughout the process a negative campaign that spread misinformation about the proposed constitution and the members drafting it.^[24]

Boric announced a new process for drafting a new constitution, with Al Jazeera writing, "Most Chileans and their politicians have agreed the constitution that dates from the dictatorship must change." Boric called on the heads of all political parties for a meeting on Monday, 5 September 2022, to chart a path forward.^[25] As a result of the rejection, the incumbent 1980 Constitution will remain in force, with The Guardian writing that "Chile's future looks decidedly uncertain," and that, "Boric has expressed a willingness to repeat the constitutional process, but the basis for reform is still very much up for debate."^[26] Colombian president Gustavo Petro lamented the win of the rejection vote, considering that Chile had decided to "revive Augusto Pinochet".^[27]

The Economist considered that "common sense" had led Chileans to reject the proposed constitution, it also called the result a "blow" for the government of Gabriel Boric.^[28]

In the aftermath of the plebiscite the internal division that the Christian Democratic Party's official support for the "Approve" option had created resurfaced, with various calls for a renewed leadership, and some calling for the explusion of members who had supported the "Reject" option.^[29]

• 2023 Chilean Constitutional Council election
• 2023 Chilean constitutional referendum

Opinion poll sources

Other

Media related to Chilean constitutional plebiscite, 2022 at Wikimedia Commons