2023 Dutch general election

The 2021 Dutch general election resulted in the formation of the fourth Rutte cabinet, consisting of a coalition of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). Mark Rutte, leader of VVD, continued in his role as prime minister.^[9]

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. The 2023 Dutch provincial elections, which were won by the BBB, led to heavy losses for the ruling coalition. Since the provincial councils indirectly elect the Dutch Senate,^[10] it meant that the ruling coalition had to face more difficulty passing legislation.^[11]

The government resigned on 7 July 2023 after the four parties failed to agree on a proposed limitation of family reunification for refugees fleeing armed conflict.^[3][12] The coalition government led by Mark Rutte collapsed ahead of the anticipated November elections due to irreconcilable disagreements on migration issues.^[13] The dispute arose from Rutte's proposal to tighten restrictions on the reunification of asylum seekers' families, aiming to reduce the number of migrants following a previous scandal involving overcrowded migration centers. CDA supported Rutte's proposal, while the opposition of CU and D66 led to a breakdown in negotiations. The parties decided unanimously that they could not remain together in the coalition.^{[14][15][16][17]} The king asked that the prime minister and his government continue to carry out their duties in a caretaker capacity.^[18] This could have been seen as a move by Rutte to keep migration on the center stage as his party was disunited on his nitrogen policies.^[19]

Leadership changes

On 10 July 2023, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced he would not run again as lead candidate for the VVD, and leave politics when a new cabinet would be sworn in. Other party leaders and parliamentary leaders also announced they would not return, including Sigrid Kaag (D66), Wopke Hoekstra, Pieter Heerma (both CDA),^[20] Attje Kuiken (PvdA),^[21] Kees van der Staaij (SGP),^[22] Farid Azarkan (Denk),^[23] Liane den Haan (independent),^[24] Nilüfer Gündoğan (independent),^[25] and Sylvana Simons (BIJ1).^[26] Jesse Klaver announced that, although he wanted to continue as member of parliament, he would not be candidate for leader of the Labour Party–GroenLinks alliance. Additionally, Vera Bergkamp, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, did not stand for reelection.^[27]

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.^[28] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.^[29][30]

The following parties participated in the election and were on the ballot:

Debates

NOS op 3 debates

In addition to the conventional debates, a series of debates between two or three party leaders were hosted by news program NOS op 3. The debates are broadcast through the programme's media outlets, such as radio and YouTube. The debates were broadcast in real-time and were held with a select group of young people present, who, in addition to the viewers on the YouTube live stream, asked the candidates various questions.^[74]

• 30 October: Mirjam Bikker (CU) and Esther Ouwehand (PvdD)
• 31 October: Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Frans Timmermans (GL/PvdA)
• 1 November: Thierry Baudet (FvD) and Rob Jetten (D66)
• 2 November: Caroline van der Plas (BBB) and Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius (VVD)
• 3 November: Laurens Dassen (Volt), Edson Olf (BIJ1) and Chris Stoffer (SGP)
• 4 November: Henri Bontenbal (CDA) and Lilian Marijnissen (SP)
• 5 November: Joost Eerdmans (JA21), Stephan van Baarle (Denk) and Wybren van Haga (BVNL)

Assaults and attacks on Thierry Baudet

Thierry Baudet, founder and leader of the far-right^[75] Forum for Democracy (FvD) was attacked with an umbrella upon his arrival at Ghent University on 26 October 2023,^[76][77] resulting in a mild concussion.

On 20 November, Baudet was beaten with a beer bottle at a campaign event in Groningen, and was later hospitalised. Numerous politicians denounced the attack, with Mark Rutte stating that the attack was "totally unacceptable".^[78][79] The far-left group AFA Noord claimed responsibility for the attack.^[80][81]

The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) established a lead in the polls following its victory in the 2023 Dutch provincial elections, but started to decline in May 2023, and further declined when Pieter Omtzigt announced he would contest the election with his newly established party New Social Contract (NSC), which immediately performed well in the polls at the expense of BBB.^[82] In the last polls before the election, NSC declined because it was unclear whether Pieter Omtzigt was willing to serve as prime minister should his party win the election. Their voters mostly diverted to VVD and PVV.^[83]

Geert Wilders' PVV won 37 seats of the 150-seat parliament, more than doubling their seats from the previous election in 2021. The left-leaning GroenLinks–PvdA (GL-PvdA) finished second with 25 seats. The VVD party ended third with 24 seats. NSC came fourth with 20 seats.^[7]

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Party for Freedom	2,450,878	23.49	37	+20
	GroenLinks–PvdA	1,643,073	15.75	25	+8
	People's Party for Freedom and Democracy	1,589,519	15.24	24	−10
	New Social Contract	1,343,287	12.88	20	New
	Democrats 66	656,292	6.29	9	−15
	Farmer–Citizen Movement	485,551	4.65	7	+6
	Christian Democratic Appeal	345,822	3.31	5	−10
	Socialist Party	328,225	3.15	5	–4
	Denk	246,765	2.37	3	0
	Party for the Animals	235,148	2.25	3	−3
	Forum for Democracy	232,963	2.23	3	−5
	Reformed Political Party	217,270	2.08	3	0
	Christian Union	212,532	2.04	3	−2
	Volt Netherlands	178,802	1.71	2	−1
	JA21	71,345	0.68	1	−2
	Belang van Nederland	52,913	0.51	0	New
	50PLUS	51,043	0.49	0	−1
	BIJ1	44,253	0.42	0	−1
	Splinter	12,838	0.12	0	0
	Pirate Party–The Greens	9,117	0.09	0	0
	Netherlands with a Plan	5,487	0.05	0	New
	Together for the Netherlands	5,325	0.05	0	New
	LEF – For the New Generation	5,122	0.05	0	New
	Libertarian Party	4,152	0.04	0	0
	Party for Sports	3,966	0.04	0	New
	Political Party for Basic Income	1,038	0.01	0	New
Total		10,432,726	100.00	150	0
Valid votes		10,432,726	99.59
Invalid votes		19,655	0.19
Blank votes		22,822	0.22
Total votes		10,475,203	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		13,473,750	77.75
Source: Kiesraad

By province

Results by province^[84]

Province	PVV	GL- PvdA	VVD	NSC	D66	BBB	CDA	SP	Denk	FvD	PvdD	SGP	CU	Volt	JA21	Others
Drenthe	26.0	14.0	12.6	16.0	4.5	8.8	3.7	3.3	0.5	2.3	1.8	0.8	2.6	1.0	0.6	0.8
Flevoland	26.6	11.8	14.8	12.2	4.5	5.2	2.5	3.2	3.3	3.3	1.9	3.8	2.6	1.1	0.7	2.6
Friesland	24.5	14.6	11.2	16.3	4.3	8.3	5.3	3.4	0.4	2.7	1.8	1.0	2.7	0.9	0.7	1.7
Gelderland	22.2	15.4	14.4	13.2	5.9	6.2	3.6	2.9	1.4	2.0	2.2	4.1	2.8	1.5	0.6	1.5
Groningen	21.8	20.2	9.9	14.6	5.7	6.1	3.0	4.5	0.8	2.3	2.7	0.9	3.4	1.9	0.6	1.7
Limburg	33.3	13.5	13.8	14.1	4.8	4.4	3.4	3.7	1.2	2.3	1.7	0.1	0.3	1.0	0.6	1.7
North Brabant	26.9	13.1	18.1	12.7	6.6	4.4	3.5	4.1	1.8	1.9	1.8	0.4	0.6	1.6	0.7	1.7
North Holland	19.8	20.7	17.1	10.1	7.9	3.2	2.3	3.1	3.4	2.5	3.1	0.3	1.0	2.3	0.7	2.8
Overijssel	22.0	11.6	11.1	21.9	4.3	8.5	3.5	2.4	1.4	2.1	1.5	3.0	3.4	1.3	0.6	1.1
South Holland	24.4	14.7	16.0	10.9	6.4	2.6	3.3	2.7	4.1	2.4	2.3	3.1	2.4	1.8	0.8	1.9
Utrecht	17.6	20.5	16.2	10.5	8.4	2.8	3.4	2.3	3.1	1.8	2.8	2.8	3.0	2.6	0.6	1.6
Zeeland	23.9	11.1	14.7	12.1	4.1	5.9	4.3	3.1	0.8	2.5	1.8	9.7	2.9	0.7	0.7	1.7
Caribbean Netherlands	10.9	13.8	10.7	8.2	26.2	5.0	1.6	1.5	0.4	2.3	2.2	0.4	11.7	1.4	0.3	3.5
Postal voters abroad	6.3	28.6	17.4	12.1	10.5	3.2	1.9	1.9	0.3	3.3	4.0	0.7	1.6	5.2	0.8	2.2

Political analysis

International media described the results as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",^[85] and as a landslide victory for the Party for Freedom (PVV).^[86][87][88] Many analysts speculated that the rise of the PVV was due to great debate performances by Wilders in the weeks leading to the election. When migration became the largest issue of the election, it helped to boost the appeal of Wilders.^[89] Some politics journalists opined that Wilders was able to build wider support by softening some of his statements after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz suggested she might include the PVV in negotiations and declaring in a debate that he would be "a Prime Minister for all Dutch people."^[90] Others commented ahead of the election that newer anti-establishment and alternative parties to the PVV such as the Forum for Democracy, JA21, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract ran out of steam when voters, having experimented with them, moved back to the PVV because Wilders had remained a stronger and more consistent political figure.^[91]

In addition, the leader of the GroenLinks–PvdA coalition, Frans Timmermans, was disliked by many right wingers, and since the VVD and NSC did not directly rule out working with either PVV or GL-PvdA, this led to right-wing voters consolidating around Wilders in order to prevent a Timmermans premiership.^[92] The Farmer–Citizen Movement saw a decline from their peak in the provincial elections in March, with many of their voters going towards NSC or PVV, for issues around nitrogen emissions were only a minor topic in the campaign.^[93]

The results of the elections are expected to lead to protracted and complicated coalition talks. Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte will remain in a caretaker capacity, and the incumbent coalition government will continue as a demissionary cabinet until the next coalition government is sworn in, which can take up to several months.

Reactions

Following his party's performance, Wilders was praised by Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. He was also praised by far-right leaders across Europe such as Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, André Ventura, Alice Weidel, Tom Van Grieken, and Santiago Abascal.^[94][95]

All parties of the incumbent coalition government lost seats in this election.^[8] Incumbent coalition party Democrats 66 leader Rob Jetten blamed the senior coalition party VVD and its leader Dilan Yeşilgöz for the successes of Wilders and the PVV in the election, saying on election night that "Yeşilgöz left the door wide open for Wilders" and blaming her party's campaign strategy for allowing "the politics of intolerance [to be] normalized while it should never be normal". Yeşilgöz denied her party's strategy was to blame for the PVV's success, saying, "It was not the VVD that made the PVV great. The voters did that."^[96]

Government formation

• List of members of the House of Representatives of the Netherlands, 2023–present

• Media related to Dutch general elections 2023 at Wikimedia Commons