2023 Estonian parliamentary election

The previous parliamentary election, which was held in March 2019, saw the loss of the absolute majority held by Jüri Ratas's first cabinet in the Riigikogu, the unicameral parliament of Estonia. Ratas's Centre Party, Isamaa, and Social Democratic Party (SDE) all suffered a setback in favour of the Reform Party, led by Kallas, and the EKRE.^[1] Kersti Kaljulaid, then-president of Estonia, gave a mandate to Kallas to form a government after the election.^[2] The Reform Party negotiated with the Centre Party, Isamaa, and SDE but ultimately failed to form a government.^[3][4][5] After the vote in April 2019, Ratas received the mandate and successfully formed a government with Isamaa and EKRE.^[6] Jüri Ratas's second cabinet was sworn in on 29 April 2019.^[7][8]

In January 2021, the Centre Party-led government collapsed after a corruption investigation in which the Centre Party was accused of requesting financial support of up to €1 million within a year in return of the €39 million loan to Hillar Teder's real estate development in Tallinn.^[9] In response, Ratas resigned as prime minister of Estonia, while Kallas was invited to form a government.^[10] She struck a deal with the Centre Party, with Kallas now serving as prime minister.^[11] In June 2022, however, the coalition government between the Centre and Reform Party collapsed due to the Centre Party's opposition to a law on education.^[12] This occurred during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; the Centre Party was seen as close to Russians in Estonia.^[12] In response, Kallas opened Triple Alliance negotiations with Isamaa and SDE, successfully forming Kaja Kallas's second cabinet on 15 July 2022.^[13][14]

The Riigikogu is made up of 101 seats and its representatives are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies.^[15] First, seats are to be filled in 12 constituencies of 5 to 16 seats depending on their population, and the remaining seats, known as "compensation seats", are allocated using the d'Hondt method to all parties that exceeded the 5% electoral threshold, to bring the results in terms of seats as close as possible to those of the vote of the population.^[16][17] In 2023, 75 seats were filled in the constituencies and the remaining 26 were allocated using the d'Hondt method. Voters have the possibility of casting a preferential vote for one of the candidates on the list for which they are voting.^[16][17] If a candidate collects more preferential votes than the amount of the simple quotient in his constituency, they are declared elected even if the list for which they are candidate for fails to cross the 5% electoral threshold.^[16][17]

In November 2022, Alar Karis, the president of Estonia, signed the election decree, setting the date for 5 March 2023.^[18] Estonian citizens who are at least 18 years old, are registered in the voting list, have not been declared incapacitated or convicted of a crime by a court, or are serving a prison sentence have the right to vote.^[19][20] In foreign embassies abroad, voting took place from 18 to 23 February 2023, while to vote by mail in foreign countries, the voter had to submit a written request to the foreign mission by 3 February 2023.^[19][21] Advance voting in Estonia took place from 27 February to 4 March, meaning that a voter could vote outside the electoral district of their residence and electronically.^[19][21] Unlike in previous elections, on 5 March voters were able to vote in any precinct within the constituency, while voters who had voted electronically during the advance voting were able to vote on a paper ballot, although their electronic vote would be cancelled.^[19][21] Citizens who were not able to go to the polling stations or to vote electronically could order a ballot box at home and vote between 3 and 5 March 2023.^[19][21] Around eighty foreign observers monitored the election.^[22]

Seats by electoral district

Map	#	Electoral district	Seats
	1	Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn	10
	2	Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn	13
	3	Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn	8
	4	Harju (excluding Tallinn) and Rapla counties	16
	5	Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties	6
	6	Lääne-Viru county	5
	7	Ida-Viru county	6
	8	Järva and Viljandi counties	7
	9	Jõgeva and Tartu counties (excluding Tartu)	7
	10	City of Tartu	8
	11	Võru, Valga and Põlva counties	8
	12	Pärnu county	7
	Source: Eesti Rahvusringhääling[23]

Pre-election composition

The Estonian National Electoral Committee announced that nine political parties and ten individual candidates registered to take part in the 2023 parliamentary election. Their registration numbers and order were determined by a draw of lots.^[25][26][27]

Party manifestos and slogans

Issues

The Eesti Rahvusringhääling and NPR commented that the issues that were discussed during the campaign period were the cost of living crisis, especially regarding rising prices and inflation, as well as issues regarding security and national defence due to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.^[31][32] Eesti Rahvusringhääling also asserted that the programmes of the contesting parties were largely influenced by the current war in Ukraine.^[33] Ellu Saar, a sociology professor, and Triin Lauri, an associate professor at Tallinn University, said that in the programmes of EKRE and Isamaa stated their support to protect the Estonian language in higher education, while Estonia 200 and SDE mention united schools where native Estonian-speaking and Russian-speaking students would study together.^[34]

Saar and Lauri commented that the Centre Party had a vague opinion regarding the issue of education.^[34] The Estonian Greens and SDE also mentioned school culture, quality of management, reducing path dependence as issues they would tackle.^[34] The Reform Party also stated its support for introducing national defence classes in schools, while Isamaa said that there should be more investments in national defence.^[35] The Centre Party called for higher salaries for those who work to contribute to the national defence, SDE suggested to implement a new tax regarding defence spending, while EKRE said that militarised border guards should be brought back.^[35] Anne Raiste of Eesti Rahvusringhääling said that the contesting parties all shared similar positions regarding foreign policy and that they pledged to implement forms of direct democracy or a more efficient representative democracy.^[36][37] In regards to the 2022–2023 Ukrainian refugee crisis, EKRE and Isamaa pledged to not accept any new refugees,^[38][39] while the Reform Party stated that it would continue accepting new Ukrainian refugees.^[40] Euronews said that EKRE's support in opinion polls had fallen due to alleged links with Russia.^[39]

Regarding the economy, Raiste said that the contesting parties had pledged to raise pensions to €1,000 or more.^[41] The Centre Party stated its support for the introduction of progressive taxation, while SDE and the Greens had adopted similar positions.^[42] On the other hand, Reform stated that it would balance the budget, while EKRE called for reduction of taxes.^[42] Estonia 200 said that labour taxes should be lowered, while Parempoolsed promised to not introduce any new taxes.^[42] Scholars Liili Abuladze and Luule Sakkeus stated that EKRE and Isamaa put their family policy focuses on families with many children and that the needs of those most vulnerable are hardly addressed.^[43] EKRE stated its opposition to transition to sustainable energy to lower energy bills, while the Reform Party pledged to adopt sustainable energy.^[38][40] EKRE also criticised Kallas's Reform Party due to the growing inflation.^[44] The Centre Party campaigned on infrastructure investments and affordable housing.^[45]

Debates

Voting at Estonian embassies abroad took place between 18 and 23 February 2023.^[65] The National Electoral Committee had announced that 47.3% of voters cast their ballot during the pre-election period, which began on 27 February and ended before 5 March, a majority of whom voted online.^[65][66][67] Voting stations on 5 March 2023 were opened from 9:00 am to 8:00 pm.^[68][69] There were 966,129 citizens that had the right to vote in the election.^[70]

The turnout progressed towards 63% by 7:00 pm according to Eesti Rahvusringhääling, with the highest turnout being in the Rapla County and the lowest in the Ida-Viru County.^[71] With 312,181 electronic votes, these were the first elections where more than half of votes were cast online.^[72] Later that day, Eesti Rahvusringhääling, Reuters, and the Associated Press reported that the Reform Party won the most votes and seats in the Riigikogu, with EKRE placing second and the Centre Party placing third.^[38][73][74] Additionally, Eesti Rahvusringhääling reported that Estonia 200 would enter the Riigikogu for the first time since its formation.^[73][75]

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Estonian Reform Party	190,632	31.24	+2.31	37	+3
	Conservative People's Party of Estonia	97,966	16.05	−1.71	17	−2
	Estonian Centre Party	93,254	15.28	−7.82	16	−10
	Estonia 200	81,329	13.33	+8.97	14	+14
	Social Democratic Party	56,584	9.27	−0.56	9	−1
	Isamaa	50,118	8.21	−3.23	8	−4
	Estonian United Left Party	14,605	2.39	+2.30	0	0
	Parempoolsed	14,037	2.30	New	0	New
	Estonian Greens	5,886	0.96	−0.86	0	0
	Independents	5,888	0.96	+0.68	0	0
Total		610,299	100.00	–	101	0
Valid votes		610,299	99.43
Invalid/blank votes		3,502	0.57
Total votes		613,801	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		966,129	63.53
Source: National Electoral Committee[76]

Results by constituency

Tanel Kiik, the vice-chair of the Centre Party, had said that "the Centre Party would be satisfied if it were to get 20 seats" in the Riigikogu, while Sven Mikser, the former chairman of the SDE, said that "nine mandates is probably the best the party can do in Estonia today".^[78] Ratas later described the results as "mediocre".^[78] After the publication of e-vote results, Kallas gave a speech and thanked her voters.^[78][79] Kallas was congratulated by Sanna Marin, the prime minister of Finland, and Krišjānis Kariņš, the prime minister of Latvia.^[80][81]

Martin Helme, the leader of EKRE, stated that "he does not trust the e-vote results" and demanded a recount.^[78][79] On 9 March 2023, EKRE made an appeal to the Supreme Court of Estonia, requesting the results to be annulled and claiming that "several anomalies and technical errors in the e-voting process had been observed".^[82] Lawyer Paul Keres of EKRE also claimed that the e-voting process is unconstitutional.^[83] This case was dismissed on 13 March.^[84]

Government formation

As the party that won the most seats in the election, Reform Party began negotiations between the parties to attempt to form a government.^[75] Eesti Rahvusringhääling reported that while experts predicted that the Reform–Estonia 200–SDE coalition would be formed after the election, Kallas only ruled out a coalition with EKRE.^[45][78][85] A day after the election, Kallas said "that it is clear that voters expect to see Estonia 200 in the government", while she also said that there are four possible coalitions for the Reform Party to form.^[86][87] Kallas invited Estonia 200 and SDE for government talks on 7 March 2023.^[88] Lauri Läänemets, the leader of SDE, confirmed on 7 April that the Reform Party, Estonia 200, and SDE reached an agreement.^[89] A day later, Kallas revealed the composition of her new cabinet.^[90][91] The coalition agreement was signed on 10 April.^[92][93][94] Soon after, Kallas became the prime-minister designate,^[95] with the Riigikogu approving the coalition government on 12 April.^[96][97] Her cabinet was sworn in on 17 April.^[96]

• Members of the 15th Riigikogu

• Official website of the National Electoral Committee