2018 Latvian parliamentary election

Parliamentary elections were held in Latvia on 6 October 2018.[1][2] Following the elections, a coalition government was formed by Who owns the state?, the New Conservative Party, Development/For!, the National Alliance and New Unity. Despite being from the smallest elected party, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš of New Unity was chosen as prime minister.

2018 Latvian parliamentary election
Latvia
← 20146 October 20182022 →

All 100 seats in the Saeima
51 seats needed for a majority
Turnout54.58%
PartyLeader%Seats+/–
HarmonyVjačeslavs Dombrovskis19.9223−1
KPV LVAldis Gobzems14.3316New
JKPJānis Bordāns13.5916+16
AP!Artis Pabriks12.0413+13
NARoberts Zīle11.0113−4
ZZSMāris Kučinskis9.9111−10
JVKrišjānis Kariņš6.698−15
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Distribution of seats by constituency
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Māris Kučinskis
ZZS
Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš
JV

Background

The 2014 elections saw Social Democratic Party "Harmony" emerge as the largest party. Although the largest party, Harmony has not participated in the government. A coalition was formed by Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers and the National Alliance with Laimdota Straujuma as prime minister.[3] On 7 December 2015 she resigned after increasing tensions within the ruling coalition.[4][5] Following her resignation and several scandals around the Unity leader Solvita Āboltiņa, opinion polls showed a rapid decrease of support for Unity. On 13 January 2016 Māris Kučinskis of the Union of Greens and Farmers was nominated to be the next prime minister by President Raimonds Vējonis.[6] His government was approved by the Saeima on 11 February.

Electoral system

The 100 members of the Saeima are elected by open list proportional representation from five multi-member constituencies (Kurzeme, Latgale, Riga (in which overseas votes are counted), Vidzeme and Zemgale) between 13 and 32 seats in size. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method with a national electoral threshold of 5%.[7]

Electoral alliances

The Movement For!, Latvian Development and Growth parties contested the election as the Development/For! alliance, formed on 20 April 2018.[8]

The Social Democratic Workers' Party, the Christian Democratic Union and Proud to Serve Our Latvia [lv] contested the election as the SKG Alliance electoral list,[9] the memorandum of which was signed by the leaders of the parties on 28 March 2018.[10][11]

The long-standing alliance of the Latvian Farmers' Union and the Green Party (in cooperation with the regional For Latvia and Ventspils and Liepāja Party) continued.

Unity formed an association in April 2018 with several regional parties under the New Unity alliance. The involved parties are the Kuldīga County Party, For Valmiera and Vidzeme and For Tukums City and County [lv] parties, joined by the Jēkabpils Regional Party.[12][13] The Latgale Party, after a period of consideration,[14] joined the alliance in July,[15] although its Daugavpils chapter allied itself with The Progressives.[16] The Progressives and Movement For! declined invitations to join the list.[17]

Disqualifications

The Central Election Commission of Latvia used its powers to remove eight candidates from submitted lists. It did so after receiving notification from the Interior Ministry that the individuals in question were disqualified from election to the Saeima under the country's election law.[18] The eight candidates were Aivars Zablockis and Nikolajs Žeļezņakovs (Eurosceptic Action Party), Zigfrīds Laicāns and Valdis Taupmanis (For Alternative), Edgars Krūmiņš (Latvian Association of Regions), Katrīna Brandala (The Progressives), Aivars Silinieks (Latvian Centrist Party) and Tatjana Ždanoka (Latvian Russian Union).[19] Ždanoka has been barred in the past as Latvian courts have found that she was a member of the Communist Party of Latvia after 31 January 1991, making her ineligible. The Election Commission additionally sought information from the Security Police and the Constitution Protection Bureau to confirm her ineligibility.[20]

Prime Minister candidates

PartyCandidate
1Union of Greens and FarmersMāris Kučinskis
2New Conservative PartyJānis Bordāns[21]
3New UnityKrišjānis Kariņš[22]
4KPV LVAldis Gobzems[23]
5Latvian Association of RegionsEdvards Smiltēns[24]
6National AllianceRoberts Zīle[25]
7HarmonyVjačeslavs Dombrovskis[26]
8Russian UnionAndrejs Mamikins[27]
9The ProgressivesRoberts Putnis [lv][28]
10Development/For!Artis Pabriks[29]

Leading candidate by constituency

PartyLeader
RīgaVidzemeLatgaleKurzemeZemgale
1Union of Greens and Farmers[30]Dana Reizniece-OzolaMāris KučinskisJānis DūklavsGundars DaudzeAugusts Brigmanis [lv]
2Harmony[31]Vjačeslavs DombrovskisEvija Papule [lv]Jānis Krišāns [lv]Anrijs MatīssIvars Zariņš
3National Alliance[32]Dace MelbārdeRaivis DzintarsEdmunds Teirumnieks [lv]Ilze IndriksoneEdvīns Šnore
4New UnityEdgars RinkēvičsInese Lībiņa-EgnereAldis Adamovičs [lv]Arvils AšeradensJānis Reirs
5Russian UnionAndrejs MamikinsAndris TolmačovsJevgēņija KrjukovaElita KosakaLudmila Ušakova
6Latvian Association of RegionsIeva Brante [lv]Edvards SmiltēnsJuris ViļumsNellija KleinbergaInga Bite
7Progressives[33]Antoņina ŅenaševaInga Liepa-MeiereAgnese LoginaDace KavasaLīga Rasnača
8Development/For!Daniels PavļutsArtis PabriksMārtiņš BondarsJuris PūceIlze Viņķele
9New Conservatives[34]Juta Strīķe [lv]Jānis BordānsIlga ŠuplinskaJuris JurašsKrišjānis Feldmanis
10KPV LVArtuss KaimiņšLinda LiepiņaRoberts SpručsAtis ZakatistovsKaspars Ģirģens
11Latvian Nationalists [lv]Andris Rubins [lv]Alfrēds BulsVladislavs BautrisSilvestrs RubinsKārlis Krūmiņš
12For Latvia from the HeartInguna SudrabaGints GābersJānis ValtervitenheimsJuris JaunzemsIveta Čivčiša
13Action PartyIgors Meļņikovs [lv]Jurijs VasiļjevsTamāra MeļņikovaAndris PerjansJeļena Pičoha
14For AlternativeEinārs GraudiņšJuris ŽuravļovsJānis KuzinsIgors GlazunovsArtūrs Malta
15Latvian Centrist PartyAndžejs ŽdanovičsVazgens SorokinsGeorgijs SokolovskisDainis GrabovskisEdvīns Puķe
16SKG Alliance (LSDSP/KDS/GKL [lv])Armands AgrumsJānis DinevičsDaiga CeipinieceArvīds KinstlersValdis Šakars

Other parties

  • United for Latvia – on 17 May 2018 party leader Inese Muhamberga announced that the party will not run in the elections.[35]
  • Latvian Socialist Party – has not submitted a separate electoral list, instead urging "Latvian workers" to "vote politically bankrupt politicians out of office".[36] Its alliance with Harmony was dissolved in 2014, although some of its members or supporters have continued to run as candidates from Harmony.

Opinion polls

Polling firmCommissionerFieldwork dateSample SizeSDPSJVZZSNALRANSLLKSVLLAJKPGKL [lv]KPV LVPar!PROWon't voteDon't knowOtherLead
FACTUM24 – 30 September 20182,500219111231(n/a)(Par)15(SKG)1213316
NorstatSeptember 201812.76.110.761.41.30.8(n/a)(Par)7.7(SKG)8.42.62.16.932.47.82
SKDS[37]Latvijas TelevīzijaSeptember 2018about 1,00017.23.89.46.92.21.51.7(n/a)(Par)5.2(SKG)6.251.212.725.51.67.8
FACTUM17 – 23 September 20182,381199121232(n/a)(Par)16(SKG)1111223
FACTUM10 – 16 September 20181,1642110101333(n/a)(Par)14(SKG)1112237
Kantar TNSDelfi8 – 12 September 20181,20014.93.29.84.30.40.30.4(n/a)(Par)5.3(SKG)9.34.00.85385.15.1
FACTUM3 – 9 September 20181,29321991443(n/a)(Par)15(SKG)139236
NorstatLNT10 – 14 September 201850113.93.395.41.41.9(n/a)(Par)6.1(SKG)7.94.71736.26.24.9
FACTUM30 August – 5 September 20181,94722891342(n/a)(Par)15(SKG)1310347
NorstatTV3 LatvijaSeptember 201814.93.395.71.8(n/a)(Par)6.9(SKG)6.64.55.437.64.35.9
FACTUM27 August – 2 September 20181,91524791232(n/a)(Par)15(SKG)1211359
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaAugust 2018900337.917.89.44.52.71.9(n/a)(Par)4.4(SKG)11.64.81.40.815.2
SKDSWebAugust 201890024.75.89.210.542.65.2(n/a)(Par)7.3(SKG)17.78.43.10.17
FACTUM25–31 August 20181,750237101233(n/a)(Par)15(SKG)1312348
FACTUM22–28 August 20181,337227111223(n/a)(Par)13(SKG)1511347
FACTUM20–26 August 20181,340217121222(n/a)(Par)12(SKG)1711364
FACTUM13–19 August 20181,4332161212414(n/a)(Par)10(SKG)1610345
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaAugust 2018~90021.55.111.56.12.91.81.2(n/a)(Par)2.9(SKG)7.53.11.412.023.00.110
FACTUM1–6 August 20181951113214(n/a)(Par)10(SKG)1614253
FACTUM26 July – 1 August 20181951212212(n/a)(Par)12(SKG)1812251
FACTUM17–23 July 20181,4941951214412(n/a)(Par)10(SKG)1411335
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaJuly 20181,00021.42.912.46.81.11.90.7(n/a)(Par)3.9(SKG)74.40.59
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaJune 20181,00021.02.714.46.11.71.51.2(n/a)(Par)4.0(SKG)4.44.71.113.223.70.06.6
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaMay 20181,00019.13.714.671.71.61.3(n/a)(Par)2.4(SKG)330.613.727.50.44.5
NorstatTV3 LatvijaMay 20181,00016.36.217.19.13.22.1(n/a)1.86.1(SKG)3.53.61.826.72.60.8
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaApril 20181,00023.24.912.88.32.82.13.7(SKG)2.41.712.224.70.410.4
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaMarch 20181,00020.44.913.96.31.60.91.00.30.73.61.91.20.312.930.00.46.5
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaFebruary 20181,00021.24.614.57.82.14.11.913.12520.26.7
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaJanuary 20181,00020.42.915.35.82.51.04.12.01.416,5262.15.2
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaDecember 201720.73.514.37.33.61.80.30.80.93.01.51.50.215.3250.56.4
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaNovember 201719.83.815.37.02.42.13.91.61.214262.94.5
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaOctober 201722.53.513.19.53.42.23.91.21.213.823.52.29.4
SKDSSeptember 201720.24.411.77.62.31.44.12.01.913.729.41.28.5
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaAugust 201720.93.113.16.84.31.65.50.815.926.11.97.8
SKDSJuly 201721.23.713.85.84.52.04.21.417.024.12.47.4
SKDSJune 201722.34.014.55.43.03.42.93.512.426.91.77.8
SKDSApril 201723.04.114.66.45.12.22.03.812.424.12.38.4
SKDSMarch 201721.24.213.17.93.91.92.94.014.324.02.68.1
SKDSJanuary 201721.04.210.56.93.81.96.215.026.04.510.5
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaDecember 201617.84.512.57.44.22.46.515.127.12.55.3
Latvijas FaktiSeptember 201617.95.017.37.32.52.80.70.30.60.70.03.413.028.60.00.6
August 201618.75.218.77.52.22.30.80.30.50.40.13.611.628.10.0Tie
July 201618.66.118.27.12.12.11.30.40.40.30.24.39.429.30.00.4
SKDSJuly 201617.86.317.59.12.11.95.916.819.63.00.3
SKDSLatvijas TelevīzijaJune 201619.25.417.17.82.33.18.411.322.72.72.1
Latvijas FaktiMay 201619.14.119.96.22.41.41.30.70.40.20.36.112.425.60.00.8
Latvijas FaktiApril 201616.73.720.08.14.02.20.70.71.00.90.111.929.80.03.3
Latvijas FaktiMarch 201617.95.520.29.04.62.30.70.61.30.60.414.722.40.02.3
Latvijas FaktiFebruary 201618.55.418.18.33.92.81.30.50.10.617.522.11.00.4
Latvijas FaktiFebruary 201620.15.921.28.74.62.20.70.41.00.511.923.90.01.1
Latvijas FaktiJanuary 201618.75.316.88.14.71.60.40.30.70.212.630.70.01.9
Latvijas FaktiDecember 201519.55.515.68.75.01.90.40.50.30.311.531.00.03.9
Latvijas FaktiNovember 201518.18.114.98.25.63.60.50.50.50.612.626.80.03.2
Latvijas FaktiOctober 201520.57.215.17.94.42.00.30.70.30.113.028.40.05.4
Latvijas FaktiAugust 201521.78.013.610.04.42.812.725.11.78.1
Latvijas FaktiApril 201520.510.313.39.04.83.91.00.211.524.51.07.2
Latvijas FaktiFebruary 201518.49.812.77.73.63.415.326.52.65.7
2014 electionOctober 201423.021.919.716.66.76.91.61.20.9-------0.41.1

Graphical summary

Results

Winning party and their result by municipalities
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Social Democratic Party "Harmony"167,11719.9223–1
Who Owns the State?120,26414.3316New
New Conservative Party114,69413.6716+16
Development/For!101,68512.1213+13
National Alliance92,96311.0813–4
Union of Greens and Farmers83,6759.9711–10
New Unity56,5426.748–15
Latvian Association of Regions35,0184.170–8
Latvian Russian Union27,0143.2200
The Progressives22,0782.630New
For Latvia from the Heart7,1140.850–7
Latvian Nationalists [lv]4,2450.510New
For an Alternative2,9000.350New
SKG Alliance1,7350.210New
Action Party1,0590.130New
Latvian Centrist Party8970.110New
Total839,000100.001000
Valid votes839,00099.30
Invalid/blank votes5,9250.70
Total votes844,925100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,548,10054.58
Source: CVK

Aftermath

Political leaders met on 18 October with the president Raimonds Vējonis. Although they failed to agree on a name for a prime minister, they reiterated their intention to form a coalition government and to exclude Harmony from any coalition, even if it required forming a coalition of five or six parties.[38]

On 7 November 2018, Latvian President Raimonds Vējonis asked Bordāns to form a new coalition government and serve as the next Prime Minister of Latvia.[39] Bordāns intended to form a five-party majority coalition, and he announced that his coalition will not include ZZS, a political alliance led by a Latvian oligarch Aivars Lembergs.[40] However, other political parties wished to cooperate also with ZZS.[41] Consequently, Bordāns did not reach an agreement with the coalition partners, and informed the President that he is unable to form the cabinet.[42]

On 14 November 2018, Development/For!, National Alliance and New Unity pulled out of coalition talks with the New Conservative Party and KPV LV, making a five-way centre-right coalition government infeasible.[43]

After Jānis Bordāns was unsuccessful in negotiating a governing coalition, President Raimonds Vējonis nominated Gobzems as Prime Minister of Latvia on 26 November 2018 and gave him two weeks to form a government.[44][45] A week later, he proposed a coalition that would consist of his Who Owns the State? party along with the New Conservative Party, the National Alliance, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and New Unity, despite the conservatives' objection to the Greens and Farmers' inclusion in government.[46] Fellow Who Owns the State? party leader Artuss Kaimiņš also opposed the inclusion of the Greens and Farmers,[47] leading to a breakdown in talks later in the week. Gobzems then retracted his proposal for the coalition and instead called for a non-partisan cabinet of unnamed "best of the best" industry professionals,[48] a proposal that was nearly immediately rejected by the conservatives, the nationalists, and New Unity on the grounds that it could increase the influence of the Harmony party.[49] Although he had initially called on the president to hold early elections if his proposal were to be rejected, Gobzems instead offered a new four-party coalition that would not include the Union of Greens and Farmers.[50] The president revoked Gobzems' nomination on 10 December 2018.[51][52]

In December it was announced that coalition talks would continue into January.[53]

On 7 January 2019, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš was tasked by Latvian President Raimonds Vējonis with forming the next government, following the failures of previous nominees Bordans and Gobzems in a contentious negotiation process.[54] Kariņš took office as prime minister on 23 January 2019, leading a broad centre-right coalition of five conservative and liberal parties that includes KPV LV, New Conservative Party, Development/For!, National Alliance and New Unity.

References